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Hurricane Rita Discussion for 9 pm CDT 9/20/05
Currents...This evening, Hurricane Rita is continuing to strenghtening, and perhaps is on the cusp of rapid intensification. Recent Satellite Data shows increasing convection which is beginning to wrap around the eye, which is becoming much more defined. NHC puts the current intensity of 105 mph. Recon recently reported a FL wind of 103 knots and pressure of 967 mb, which easily supports the 105 mph initial intensity. Rita could become a Major hurricane very soon.
Track...This will probably be the easier portion of the forecast. Rita is being dominated and steered by a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. extending into TX. Indications are that this will slowly begin to erode and break down in the coming days, which will result in an eventual bend to the NW. Where this occurs will be key. All of tonight's incoming 00z model runs thus far show landfall between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. The NHC track is on the southern edge of this model consensus. My track will also be on the southern edge of the model consensus, but a tad farther north than the previous forecast. This brings the storm in north of Matagorda Bay, probably late on Friday or early on Saturday. There is still some uncertaintity in the track, but confidence is increasing in a landfall in the Mid or Upper TX coast, centering between Corpus Christi and Galveston.
Intensity...Rita is becoming much better defined tonight and a RIC is possible. I will forecast a category 3 overnight. SSTs and heat content increase in the Central Gulf, and this appears to be the likely place for an RIC and allow Rita to reach Category 4 status. SHIPS intensity has backed off at 00z, but I do not buy its scenario, thus maintenace of a peak 125 kt hurricane is shown. Shear is expected to remain low throughout, and an anticyclone should be in place over Rita, all favorable for intensification. As the storm enters the Western Gulf and approaches landfall, heat content decreases. In addition, some dry air may be remaining in place or will be entrained from TX as the storm approaches. The possibility of an ERC is also present, though can't be accurately forecasted. Thus, a slow and slight weakening is possible and will be indicated with a Category 3 landfall, with winds of 125 mph. The intensity forecast remains problematic due to several factors and concerns, so this is low confidence. BOTTOM LINE...THIS STORM WILL IN ALL LIKELYHOOD BE A DANGEROUS, MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL!!! RESIDENTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BEGIN IMMEDIATE PREPARATIONS AND HEED EVACUATION ORDERS!
***This is NOT an official product. As always, consult NHC or NWS forecasts as your first source of information. I am NOT a meteorologist, just an amateur.***
