Neil Frank's take

[dwg71]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

[Stratosphere747]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

dwg...

This is a Corpus to Galveston storm...

Call me what you will...

[dwg71]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

dwg...

This is a Corpus to Galveston storm...

Call me what you will...

dont shoot the messanger...just quoting him. He said we will have to wait and see.

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

it must be nice living in never-never land. i'll give you a visit when i need a break from reality.

[jkt21787]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

it must be nice living in never-never land. i'll give you a visit when i need a break from reality.

What?

Almost every person would have to agree with that reasoning above, if you think it will be further east read the 11 pm discussion to find out why it won't.

Obviously you have no real idea on how the ridge works or how it is expected to erode.

[Air Force Met]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

Of course he said Northern Mexico to TX/LA border...that's the cone of error.

[dwg71]

I'm testy, so I will have to bite my tongue. Look at the models, read the discussions, read the experts (Ortt, Sutherland, others). If you think a Galveston Cat 4 is a foregone conclusion. Your the smartes guy on the planet.

[jkt21787]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

Of course he said Northern Mexico to TX/LA border...that's the cone of error.

LOL, thats very true. Like I said, the very reasonable scenario. Someone obviously disagrees for some apparent unfounded reason.

[southerngale]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

it must be nice living in never-never land. i'll give you a visit when i need a break from reality.

What in the world are you talking about?

[dwg71]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

Of course he said Northern Mexico to TX/LA border...that's the cone of error.

He mentioned them because of NHC strike probabilities that had Brownsville at 11 and others up to 13. He said they are all but equal. He said and I'm quoting "If you went to the track and a horse was 10 to 1 to win, a horse that is 9 to 1 is just the same."

[jkt21787]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

it must be nice living in never-never land. i'll give you a visit when i need a break from reality.

What in the world are you talking about?

Its obvious he is the one in never-never land.

[jasons2k]

I just watched him and the horse analogy was used with the current probability numbers (which, by the way, he started while at the NHC). They were 11/11 for NOLA and Brownsville, and 13/13 at Corpus and Galveston.

He said it was like betting at the horse track, not much difference between a 9:1 and a 10:1 horse.

He is a bit "old school" in that anything beyond 3 days is 'trashed'.

Personally, I didn't much care for his presentation tonight. There was no urgency. A lot of people look to him because he is so well-respected (I think he was the best NHC director) but he blew it IMO.

[Mac]

I'm sorry, but I really think Rita is going to head more north than NHC is thinking at this point--or Ortt and others, for that matter. And I'll admit I'm no pro met. But she is going to be an all out monster. She wants to turn poleward, so she'll exploit any opportunity she can to do that. She'll push with all her might against that high pressure system. And while no hurricane is a match for a high pressure system, she'll expose every single weakness in that ridge--stair-stepping her way north, then northwest, then north. Before it's all said and done, I'm still believing she is going to be closer to Galveston at landfall than Corpus.

[dwg71]

I just watched him and the horse analogy was used with the current probability numbers (which, by the way, he started while at the NHC). They were 11/11 for NOLA and Brownsville, and 13/13 at Corpus and Galveston.

He said it was like betting at the horse track, not much difference between a 9:1 and a 10:1 horse.

He is a bit "old school" in that anything beyond 3 days is 'trashed'.

Personally, I didn't much care for his presentation tonight. There was no urgency. A lot of people look to him because he is so well-respected (I think he was the best NHC director) but he blew it IMO.

I actually liked hearing a calm, informed voice of reason.

[fci]

I just watched him and the horse analogy was used with the current probability numbers (which, by the way, he started while at the NHC). They were 11/11 for NOLA and Brownsville, and 13/13 at Corpus and Galveston.

He said it was like betting at the horse track, not much difference between a 9:1 and a 10:1 horse.

He is a bit "old school" in that anything beyond 3 days is 'trashed'.

Personally, I didn't much care for his presentation tonight. There was no urgency. A lot of people look to him because he is so well-respected (I think he was the best NHC director) but he blew it IMO.

I don't live there and obviously did not see Neil Frank on Houston TV but I clearly remember him as NHC Director and thought he was awesome at the time.

Sounds to me like he is hedging for now since many take his word as gospel and the final destination is just not clear enough yet for him to pinpoint.

I think that is very logical so as not to let anybody let their guard down at this point. It is a very dangerous situation and ALL residents in the possible landfall area must be very diligent.

[Furious George]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

Of course he said Northern Mexico to TX/LA border...that's the cone of error.

He mentioned them because of NHC strike probabilities that had Brownsville at 11 and others up to 13. He said they are all but equal. He said and I'm quoting "If you went to the track and a horse was 10 to 1 to win, a horse that is 9 to 1 is just the same."

That actually makes some pretty good sense to me. What doesn't make sense are the reporters on CNN and Foxnews who suggest this has to hit Houston/Galveston because they are due. You've got to predict what the High Pressure will do before predicting what path Rita will take.

[Stratosphere747]

I just watched him and the horse analogy was used with the current probability numbers (which, by the way, he started while at the NHC). They were 11/11 for NOLA and Brownsville, and 13/13 at Corpus and Galveston.

He said it was like betting at the horse track, not much difference between a 9:1 and a 10:1 horse.

He is a bit "old school" in that anything beyond 3 days is 'trashed'.

Personally, I didn't much care for his presentation tonight. There was no urgency. A lot of people look to him because he is so well-respected (I think he was the best NHC director) but he blew it IMO.

J...

I agree...I'm tired of this 30% chance outside of the cone BS...

Scott

[Roxy]

well I was glad Dr. Neil said what he did, we really don't know anything right now and the panic is getting frustrating.

I guess I am just tired, I will go to bed now and get up for the 5am. It'll be decision time then.

Those of you who are staying up, get this thing out of here...we don't need it.

[Air Force Met]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

Of course he said Northern Mexico to TX/LA border...that's the cone of error.

He mentioned them because of NHC strike probabilities that had Brownsville at 11 and others up to 13. He said they are all but equal. He said and I'm quoting "If you went to the track and a horse was 10 to 1 to win, a horse that is 9 to 1 is just the same."

The strike probs are computer generated...and only go out 72 hours. That menas there is an equal chance for those locations if the storm speeds up and hits within 72 hours. That means they are pretty worthless now. Look at the probs when it's 60 hours out...much more accurate.

[Eye10TX]

I have to say I was a bit surprised at how low-key Dr. Frank was tonight, too. I missed the first part of his segment, but switched over to see if he was fielding phone-in questions, so I could post the number here, but he wasn't even doing that.

Guess I'll bring my own apprehension down just a notch, for now!