Neil Frank's take

[tw861]

I'm testy, so I will have to bite my tongue. Look at the models, read the discussions, read the experts (Ortt, Sutherland, others). If you think a Galveston Cat 4 is a foregone conclusion. Your the smartes guy on the planet.

Well dwg, one of your pros (Don Sutherland) just bailed on you. He just moved his forecast about 150 miles north. Landfall closer to Matagorda, that's north of Corpus I think.

Estimated Track:
24.2N 85.0W
24.5N 90.0W
27.0N 95.0W
29.5N 97.5W

[jasons2k]

Good idea for next 48 hours...after that its a horse race from there on out. He said that anywhere from Northern Mexico to TX/LA border.

It all depends on high. If it stays put then it move south. If it moves off to the west then it could be pulled north.

Of course he said Northern Mexico to TX/LA border...that's the cone of error.

He mentioned them because of NHC strike probabilities that had Brownsville at 11 and others up to 13. He said they are all but equal. He said and I'm quoting "If you went to the track and a horse was 10 to 1 to win, a horse that is 9 to 1 is just the same."

The strike probs are computer generated...and only go out 72 hours. That menas there is an equal chance for those locations if the storm speeds up and hits within 72 hours. That means they are pretty worthless now. Look at the probs when it's 60 hours out...much more accurate.

Exactly, thank you AFM.

Most people in the 'general public' don't understand the timeframe assocated with probabilities and I think him showing 11 for BRO and NOLA and then 13 at Galveston will unfortunaely make some people think there is a good chance it's going elsewhere.

He also beat the "35% chance it will strike outside the cone" drum again too.

[audioslave8]

Don Sutherland Pleeeease!!! I've been watching and studying hurricanes for over 20 yrs being a native from the S.C. N.C. coast. The best forecasters with these storms in my opinion are Dr. Neil Frank and John Hope. Those are your legends. You can't even touch them and lets not forget Dr. Steve Lyons. He is amazing and has alot of respect from everybody including Max Mayfield. Steve has studied alot of other areas besides just the storms like waves, storm surge,etc. He is the mannn in my opinion right now and will be a legend also. Enough about what I think. I tell you what I hate personally is people on here that wanna mean lady and grope thinking they have to take everyones quotes and make them sound like they are stupid and act like they are some kind of expert. Most of all I cant stand the people who write and put down the NHC. They have done the best they can do with the money they get from the Government. They nailed Katrina when it made landfall on the Lousiana Mississippi line. Until the NHC gets more funding states are going to have to evacuate way more in advance with storms like Katrina coming for another 10 to 20 yrs. The cone of error will be wide like this until they get the money for more research. Galveston did the right thing by evacuating this early. Why not take the chance. It only makes sense especially since it might be a CAT4 producing damage as close to what Katrina did. Lets just all hope it weakens some before landfall. Lets just pray for Texas because every hurricane model being used now at this hour is taking the storm there. PEACE!!!