JB says strongest Hurricane ever for Texas

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Stratosphere747
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#61 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 6:29 pm

inotherwords wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Its gone political!

Thread lock needed. You guys above obviously didn't read the threads at the top.


My post was not political. I have in-laws in Crawford and are concerned for their safety. Some idiot assumed I was talking about Bush when I wasn't.


In...

Crawford is far enough inland that they should be safe. Depending on the inland track there may be some potential of tornadic activity, but wind wise it should be ok...

My parents live in Gatesville and that is where I am sending my two sons...

Scott
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#62 Postby timNms » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:07 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
inotherwords wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Its gone political!

Thread lock needed. You guys above obviously didn't read the threads at the top.


My post was not political. I have in-laws in Crawford and are concerned for their safety. Some idiot assumed I was talking about Bush when I wasn't.


In...

Crawford is far enough inland that they should be safe. Depending on the inland track there may be some potential of tornadic activity, but wind wise it should be ok...

My parents live in Gatesville and that is where I am sending my two sons...

Scott


How far inland is Crawford and Gatesville? Things were bad as far inland as Jackson, MS and Meridian, MS after Katrina. (jackson is over 100 miles inland)
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#63 Postby Tri-State_1925 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:29 pm

You've got to love this Joe B guy...people who said he isn't all about predicting the most extreme events are kidding themselves. His predictions might be beneficial when trying to warn people in the path of a hurricane, but they are humorous none the less.

I don't think he or anyone else has to worry about this storm news reaching the public though. The cable news networks are all over this storm and it's still about 1,000 miles from Texas. Pretty unprecedented stuff.
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#64 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:27 pm

He's on Fox right now....He says rita looks like she will out due Katrina as far as strength....
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#65 Postby txtim » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:29 pm

I guess my idea of evacuating south from Corpus might be the correct one...
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#66 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:31 pm

txtim wrote:I guess my idea of evacuating south from Corpus might be the correct one...


Too bad your first post had to be about evacuating.....
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#67 Postby baitism » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:33 pm

feederband wrote:He's on Fox right now....He says rita looks like she will out due Katrina as far as strength....


From what im seeing I cant really argue with his assessment at this point. The western GOM has been untouched all season. SSTS are 30+, if the shear and dry air isnt a factor theres no reason it couldnt be that strong. Its got alot more gulf to work with then Katrina had.
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#68 Postby arcticfire » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:51 pm

Tri-State_1925 wrote:You've got to love this Joe B guy...people who said he isn't all about predicting the most extreme events are kidding themselves. His predictions might be beneficial when trying to warn people in the path of a hurricane, but they are humorous none the less.

I don't think he or anyone else has to worry about this storm news reaching the public though. The cable news networks are all over this storm and it's still about 1,000 miles from Texas. Pretty unprecedented stuff.


I catch him occasionally , he is .... animated. I don't paticularly see a problem with his forecast. He calls them like he see's them and dosn't bother with the 'but the path may change 500miles" disclaimer of the standard forcasts. Even if he overcasts the strength , it's better to prepair for a cat5 and get a cat2 , then prepair for a cat2 and get a 5.

Doom and gloom , forcefull opinions on path , all are fine in my book if it helps get people to wake up to the danger. It's like one phrase I tend to hear a lot on TWC , "it's gonna be a big wind event". Ya know if I was listing to that alone , without the knowledge I've gained around here , I would be complacent. That doesn't sound scary , that does not sound seroius. Granted TWC really does their best to calmly remind people of the danger , but I for one cannot fault a met (joB in this case) for speaking about a possible category 5 hurrcain with a bit more vigor then one would decribe a naughtly little thunder storm in the plains.
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#69 Postby southerngale » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:51 pm

feederband wrote:He's on Fox right now....He says rita looks like she will out due Katrina as far as strength....


Did he? I heard him say maybe 920mb but I didn't hear him say that she could outdo Katrina.

No freaking way.
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#70 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:58 pm

timNms wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
inotherwords wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Its gone political!

Thread lock needed. You guys above obviously didn't read the threads at the top.


My post was not political. I have in-laws in Crawford and are concerned for their safety. Some idiot assumed I was talking about Bush when I wasn't.


In...

Crawford is far enough inland that they should be safe. Depending on the inland track there may be some potential of tornadic activity, but wind wise it should be ok...

My parents live in Gatesville and that is where I am sending my two sons...

Scott


How far inland is Crawford and Gatesville? Things were bad as far inland as Jackson, MS and Meridian, MS after Katrina. (jackson is over 100 miles inland)


Tim...

Crawford and Gatesville are a good 250-300 miles inland as the "crow" flies..

Depending on the trajectory of Rita, Tornadoes and possible excessive rainfall are the threats..

Scott
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#71 Postby AggieSpirit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:34 pm

Will the Dallas metro area possibly experience Tropical Storm force winds from Rita?

Could we see the first memorable Inland Tropical Storm Watch for North Central Texas?

Just saw Troy Duncan on Channel 8 Wfaa. He said sustained winds 39 MPH plus are possible.
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#72 Postby mvtrucking » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:37 pm

11:00 pm disco mentioned that :
GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

:eek:
Last edited by mvtrucking on Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#73 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:49 pm

Alicia caused one fatality in Dallas County, a freeway sign was blown off and killed a truck driver.
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#74 Postby oneness » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:11 pm

djtil wrote:she has about a 36 hour window to hit cat 5, after than lower SST to the west of current location makes it extremely unlikely.



Cat 4 is the best bet, but remember, Katrina was pretty spent when she exited the 'glades and it took 36 hrs to get her structure sorted out again. Rita has been leaving the area as a very well organised closed cat 2-3 so the possibility of a high 4 to middle 5 is there. Pressure would have to really plummet though, but conditions seem to be right for that to occur. Either way, I’d say this is going to be a very large and terrible storm in three days.
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#75 Postby LAwxrgal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:13 pm

oneness wrote:
djtil wrote:she has about a 36 hour window to hit cat 5, after than lower SST to the west of current location makes it extremely unlikely.



Cat 4 is the best bet, but remember, Katrina was pretty spent when she exited the 'glades and it took 36 hrs to get her structure sorted out again. Rita has been leaving the area as a very well organised closed cat 2-3 so the possibility of a high 4 to middle 5 is there. Pressure would have to really plummet though, but conditions seem to be right for that to occur. Either way, I’d say this is going to be a very large and terrible storm in three days.


Also remember, Rita didn't make a landfall per se, she passed through the very warm (and very favorable) Florida Straits region. That explains her organization.
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#76 Postby oneness » Tue Sep 20, 2005 11:25 pm

It seems outrageous, but Rita does have a shot at massive damage. The problem is that if it occurred in 2007 it might be quite manageable, ... but just a month after Katrina?

Look at the map of the GOM oil infrastructure which someone posted yesterday, then look at the projected paths and strengths of Rita. This looks even worse for the oil fields than what happened off NO, its ports and petro-chemical plants and refineries.

Not to mention the destruction of urban life-support for the workers.
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#77 Postby corpusbreeze » Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:53 am

oneness wrote:It seems outrageous, but Rita does have a shot at massive damage. The problem is that if it occurred in 2007 it might be quite manageable, ... but just a month after Katrina?

Look at the map of the GOM oil infrastructure which someone posted yesterday, then look at the projected paths and strengths of Rita. This looks even worse for the oil fields than what happened off NO, its ports and petro-chemical plants and refineries.

Not to mention the destruction of urban life-support for the workers.
Get ready to pay 4 dollar a gallon for fuel. :(
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