Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[soonertwister]

Jeez Lou-eez look at the SSTs in front of Rita's path

Even worse, warmwater depth is greater than for Katrina, and near the coast, the warm water almost covers the entire depth of the Gulf to the continental shelf.

Mr. What's His Name has been selling his "stay and don't worry" to any gullible person on this board.

People like that need to get banned.

[oneness]

I remember someone used that same heat content argument with regard to Katrina crossing the continental shelf.

[soonertwister]

Some people might be confusing SST with maximum heat content. The SSTs will be no inhibitor to strengthening, but the area closest to the Texas coast have lower heat content values (I'm not sure exactly what this means, though).

It's called shallower water. Maximum btu's are limited by shallow water. The downside is that there isn't any cooler water to well up. And storm surge loves a gently sloping continental shelf, it's the devil's playground.

[ixocean]

According to MSNBC, Rita is at 110 mph and moving at 12 mph. I'm getting more concerned for a direct hit on Galveston or Freeport.

Hey HouTex, I not to far from you. Pearland near beltway. Are you sitting it out?? Im not really sure.....

I don't know. If the Storm comes Right Through Freeport or Galveston Bay as a cat 5 I will reluctantly go. I have three Big dogs and I don't want to leave them here to fend for themselves.

OT REPLY:

I would NEVER leave a pet behind. That is why preparation is key...if you leave early enough and plan for accommodations where pets are accepted, there is no reason to do this. If necessary, smuggle the animals into a place. Leaving them behind should never be a consideration, they look to us for protection and guidance. It's like leaving a mute/deaf/disabled child behind because they're too much work and difficult to travel with under these circumstances.

[curtadams]

Some people might be confusing SST with maximum heat content. The SSTs will be no inhibitor to strengthening, but the area closest to the Texas coast have lower heat content values (I'm not sure exactly what this means, though).

It means the warm water is a thin layer over cold water. Once the hurricane starts churning it up the temperature will drop quickly. I don't know how much heat content a hurricane needs, although I do know that in the GOM it can run short.

[ROCK]

According to MSNBC, Rita is at 110 mph and moving at 12 mph. I'm getting more concerned for a direct hit on Galveston or Freeport.

Hey HouTex, I not to far from you. Pearland near beltway. Are you sitting it out?? Im not really sure.....

I don't know. If the Storm comes Right Through Freeport or Galveston Bay as a cat 5 I will reluctantly go. I have three Big dogs and I don't want to leave them here to fend for themselves.

Freeport /Gal at cat 5. We are 45-50 miles inland. So Im guessing we would get probably 115 sustained / gusts to 130. Moving north at 15mph what would you gather as time period for the cane force winds?

[dwg71]

Current heading seems to be back to due west or slightly south of that...

I think the ridge has been underestimated by GFS, I hope heading continues.

[dwg71]

Also, canadian, ukmet and nogaps are all south of NHC...

Here is spaghetti model

[P.K.]

6am GMT model guidance goes up to 122kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 210622
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050921 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050921 0600 050921 1800 050922 0600 050922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 84.0W 24.8N 86.4W 25.3N 88.4W 25.8N 90.4W
BAMM 24.2N 84.0W 24.7N 86.3W 25.1N 88.4W 25.5N 90.4W
A98E 24.2N 84.0W 24.6N 86.5W 25.0N 88.6W 25.6N 90.4W
LBAR 24.2N 84.0W 24.7N 86.2W 25.1N 88.7W 25.7N 91.0W
SHIP 100KTS 111KTS 118KTS 121KTS
DSHP 100KTS 111KTS 118KTS 121KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050923 0600 050924 0600 050925 0600 050926 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.5N 92.4W 28.5N 96.3W 30.4N 97.2W 31.4N 96.7W
BAMM 25.9N 92.3W 27.3N 95.5W 29.6N 95.9W 31.0N 95.7W
A98E 26.6N 92.0W 28.7N 94.0W 32.2N 94.6W 34.8N 88.7W
LBAR 26.4N 93.2W 28.9N 96.7W 32.1N 97.1W 34.0N 93.7W
SHIP 122KTS 114KTS 98KTS 69KTS
DSHP 122KTS 114KTS 41KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.9N LONM12 = 81.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 23.6N LONM24 = 78.8W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 105NM

[NorthGaWeather]

And they will be further North next time. BTW, using 06z models to prove your point?

[dwg71]

And they will be further North next time. BTW, using 06z models to prove your point?

No point to be made, that is the most current spaghetti map. Why do you think they will be further north.

Do you have the 12Zs they arent due out for another 4 hours?

[deltadog03]

damn, its late and trying to finish up some HW....dwg, whats up man? its ok too be nervous...heck, im nervous and im 240 miles from the coast....the gfdl did shift east a bit...the nogaps shifted quite a bit north..there shouldnt be any change in the track in 30 min...or so...maybe a tad east...since they like to follow the gfdl a bunch...

[NorthGaWeather]

damn, its late and trying to finish up some HW....dwg, whats up man? its ok too be nervous...heck, im nervous and im 240 miles from the coast....the gfdl did shift east a bit...the nogaps shifted quite a bit north..there shouldnt be any change in the track in 30 min...or so...maybe a tad east...since they like to follow the gfdl a bunch...

I'm in agreement with the GFDL. I agree we shouldn't see much change at 5am.

[dwg71]

Slight shift west at landfall.

[mtm4319]

Slight shift west at landfall.

5am forecast track is the brighter white line, as opposed to the 11pm track.

[SpencerJSays]

THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED
DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE
THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST
WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT.
ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS FROM THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105
KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.

Is it safe, then, to say Rita is in actuality stronger than the 5AM advisory indicates? This, coupled with the continuing intensification, could look like QUITE them jump once they actually get in there.

[superfly]

I think recon will find a cat 4 next time they're in there.

[deltadog03]

ok, thanks for the map...thats like 10 miles or so

[tailgater]

Is that dry air to her NW gonna imped strenging, hopefully after she passes the loop current it'll take her down a notch or 2.

[krysof]

I realized that when a hurricane really organizes like Rita, shear doesn't do that much, but dry air could destroy it. Do the effects of dry air gain more power? Probably when the very favorable conditions a major hurricane has encounter a little bit of unfavorable conditions, they break down and can't adjust. Isabel of 2003 is a perfect example and even Katrina (which maybe could of weakened further if it stayed over water more and then probably may have made landfall as a strong three or so.