Is Corpus Christi off the hook?

[corpusbreeze]

Ill wait and see tomorrow to get a better idea, as of right now Im felling a little bit better. People and family ive talked to today are watching and talking but the impression i get is they are buying into the little black line, which is well north of here. Corpus is a fairly large city of at least 300 thousand, plus a major port of oil products etc. if Rita does not take that north turn at the last moment this city has a BIG problem. Also we here do not have shelters that will open because the Red Cross years ago told our city it was too risky to do so. We use to have shelters. I have been watching storms all my life and I know how unpredictable they can be, but the NHC has been getting better every year so Im could be buying into their " Black Line".

[Brent]

Not off the hook... if this doesn't turn, there's going to be a problem.

[skysummit]

Yea right....I'd definately still be worried if I were you.

[mtm4319]

Corpus Christi is not off the hook, and probably won't be for at least another 48 hours.

[smashmode]

No, in fact one of the guys from the analyst forum says 125kt at corpus.

[FunkMasterB]

Obviously, not off the hook. The models have been pretty good the last couple of year predicting landfall. That's a double-edged sword. It's great that we can give people several days advanced notice, but the accuracy of those models has also made people outside of the strike area complacent. In reality, these models, this far out, can easily be wrong. It's all up to that high pressure system and no one really knows what it's going to do and precisely when.

If I'm in Corpus, I've either left, or I'm checking the weather maps every two hours.

[corpusbreeze]

No, in fact one of the guys from the analyst forum says 125kt at corpus.

Ive read his forecast, but he is the only one so far south, but he does have a pretty good track record. Well see.

[vbhoutex]

There is nowhere along the TX coast that is off the hook. The closest city to off the hook is probably Brownsville and it is still in the cone. Admittedly most of the guidance takes CC "off the hook" or at least places it on the West side of the eye, but I sure wouldn't even consider letting my guard down for at least 48 hours.

[Derecho]

There are a variety of fairly reliable models near Corpus Christi. Frankly this far out, CC may be one of the likeliest spots to be hit.

[hicksta]

There are a variety of fairly reliable models near Corpus Christi. Frankly this far out, CC may be one of the likeliest spots to be hit.

I dont know about that. I tihnk we are near where the models will cluster soon.

[Shoshana]

Rita seems to be a big storm. Sizewise I mean - not like Andrew who was mean but small. I'm trying to figure out if Rita is or will be Carla sized - if so - Rita can impact the entire Texas gulf.

[Windy]

What the... can you people not read? I know there are no such things as dumb questions, but this one really makes me wonder. Why would someone ask this question when the cone of uncertainty clearly indicates you're not off the hook? Does the NHC need to have a little text bubble under the cone that says "HEY YOU! YEAH, YOU IN THE BUBBLE! YOU'RE NOT OFF THE HOOK YET! DUH!" ?

22% chance you will see TS winds in CC.
11% chance you will see hurricane winds in CC.

[Starburst]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 210243
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX941 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005

TROPICAL...HURRICANE RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONVECTION WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE PER KEY WEST RADAR. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATED THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN WHAT
THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED. THIS IS A CHARACTERISTIC BIAS OF
THE MODELS IN ATTEMPTING TO WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TOO
QUICKLY WHICH WAS OBSERVED WITH HURRICANCE EMILY. THE UPSHOT OF THIS
IS THAT THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS TYPICALLY DELAYED WITH THE TRACK
BEING FURTHER LEFT. OBVIOUSLY CLOSE MONITORING IS DEMANDED.

[corpusbreeze]

What the... can you people not read? I know there are no such things as dumb questions, but this one really makes me wonder. Why would someone ask this question when the cone of uncertainty clearly indicates you're not off the hook? Does the NHC need to have a little text bubble under the cone that says "HEY YOU! YEAH, YOU IN THE BUBBLE! YOU'RE NOT OFF THE HOOK YET! DUH!" ?

22% chance you will see TS winds in CC.
11% chance you will see hurricane winds in CC.

Windy just becuase you are a S2K Supporter does not mean you can be rude to others on this board, which by the way is the second time you have done this to me. Im sorry if the thread's title may seem stupid to you, but the thread is about people falling into a false sence of secuity bcause their area does not have the black line run through their area, which by the way @6:30 am the NHC is still sticking to their guns for a landfall north and east of here. So yeah after every update I feel more at ease.

[inotherwords]

Corpusbreeze, I would not be so sure right now. Take a look at where NHC was predicting Ophelia strike this far in advance of landfall. Remember Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and it hooked into Port Charlotte last year. At this far out strikewise last year, Ivan was shown via black line to be coming right into my back yard hundreds of miles down the coast instead of into the panhandle. DON'T JUDGE BY THE BLACK LINE.

You are in the cone and dependent on the storm tracking north in order for you to be missed. I'd be packed up and ready to evacuate if I were you just in case. This is not going to be a storm to be taken lightly. You have a little time to get your stuff together but I'd really suggest it would be a good idea to be prepared to leave the coast. If the storm does not turn you'll be right in its sights.

If you've read my other posts I tend to be conservative when it comes to evacuating and when to start preparing. I am not one for panicking or overreacting but there is a time to worry and then there's a time to act. I'd suggest this is your time to act, and step one now is to figure out what you're going to take and where you might go. Stock up on supplies both for your home and on the road, and gas up your car. Buy a generator if you can, you can find them for under $500. An inverter is also a good idea.

Good luck. We'll all be watching this storm closely.

[SoupBone]

It looks like SE LA is off the hook at least for now though right?

[dwg71]

It looks like SE LA is off the hook at least for now though right?

I dont like off the hook, id rather say risk has diminished but still somewhat present.

IMO brownsville is more likely than LA, at this time.

[skysummit]

Soup...we're looking safer and safer by the minute, but still be prepared just in case.

My thinking is that this ridge is going to hold stronger than currently forecasted to do and possibly not begin to pull out or weaken until it's too late for Corpus Christi. I think they'll get more of a direct impact...IMO.

[otowntiger]

Its way, WAY too early to tell if you are off the hook. I don't think that can be determined until the storm is substantially above your lattitude. I have to agree with Windy here. This is a rather ignorant question and suppossition this far out. For crying out loud the storm is large and getting larger and stronger and is headed in your general direction. There is no way you are in the clear and for you to begin to think that you are is rather ignorant at this point don't you think? You are almost baiting people to jump on your case when you pose such a question at this time.

[BayouVenteux]

Ill wait and see tomorrow to get a better idea, as of right now Im felling a little bit better. People and family ive talked to today are watching and talking but the impression i get is they are buying into the little black line, which is well north of here. Corpus is a fairly large city of at least 300 thousand, plus a major port of oil products etc. if Rita does not take that north turn at the last moment this city has a BIG problem. Also we here do not have shelters that will open because the Red Cross years ago told our city it was too risky to do so. We use to have shelters. I have been watching storms all my life and I know how unpredictable they can be, but the NHC has been getting better every year so Im could be buying into their " Black Line".

If Rita is similar to Katrina in strength and wind radii at landfall, even if the eye does make landfall 80-90 miles to your north, you should expect moderate to strong tropical storm force winds that will cause downed branches, some collapsing tree damage to homes and cars, and downed power lines that will likely cause power outages lasting anywhere from a day to a week.

Those were our inland conditions well to the west of the eye with Katrina, followed by 3 1/2 days without power. It was without a doubt the strongest "weak" side of a storm I have ever experienced.

When the NHC advises the public to ignore the track line with storms like these, they mean it.