Rita: TS to category 3 in 18 hours

[soonertwister]

Can't she do anything better than that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0551.shtml

[SamSagnella]

I would be S H O C K E D if Rita indeed remained a TS as long as the NHC kept her one.

[aOl]

Can't she do anything better than that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0551.shtml

What are you trying to say here?

[SamSagnella]

What are you trying to say here?

That Rita's strengthening has been remarkably rapid? Don't mean to speak for sooner tho...

[HurryKane]

Can't she do anything better than that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0551.shtml

What are you trying to say here?

It was said with sarcasm. Read, rinse, repeat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck Katrina went from 115 mph to 175 mph in 12 hours.

[soonertwister]

Can't she do anything better than that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0551.shtml

What are you trying to say here?

It's rocket science. I would tell you, but I'd lose my security clearance. Sorry.

[aOl]

Oh, OK. Well this was expected... I'm not surprised at all. NHC forecast has been right on. And now they're saying possible Cat 5, although not officially putting the intensity there. So I definitely won't be surprised in the least if it becomes a Cat 5. In fact, I somewhat expect it at some point. Landfall as a Cat 5? Yes, I'd be surprised. That's just plain unusual.

[soonertwister]

Heck Katrina went from 115 mph to 175 mph in 12 hours.

I don't think so Matt. I checked the timeline. You are welcome to prove me wrong, however. It's been pretty busy lately.

[mtm4319]

Heck Katrina went from 115 mph to 175 mph in 12 hours.

I don't think so Matt. I checked the timeline. You are welcome to prove me wrong, however. It's been pretty busy lately.

He's right, actually.

115 mph

175 mph

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

11pm

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


11am

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT. A DROP IN THE EYE
GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN
INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER. GPS
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION EARLIER TODAY SHOWED
KATRINA'S INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE 200 MB
LEVEL...WITH THE FLOW SPIRALING ANTICYLONICALLY OUTWARD IN A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BEYOND A COUPLE HUNDRED
N MI FROM THE CENTER. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...DUE TO INTERNAL
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANES
RARELY SUSTAIN SUCH EXTREME WINDS FOR MUCH TIME. HOWEVER WE SEE
NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE OF CATEGORY
4 OR 5 INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. KATRINA SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. RECALLING THAT THE AVERAGE NHC 24-HOUR
TRACK FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 N MI...THE ACTUAL LANDFALL POINT
COULD STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. ALSO...WE MUST CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE
HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...BECAUSE DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS...STORM SURGE...AND DANGEROUS WAVES EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE EYE. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHICH COUNTY
OR PARISH WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER.

THIS ADVISORY SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AT LEAST 150 N MI
INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND WARNINGS ISSUED
BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 26.0N 88.1W 150 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 27.2N 88.9W 145 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.1N 89.6W 140 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.4N 89.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 40.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1200Z 45.0N 77.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1200Z 52.0N 69.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Unless I'm mistaking thats 12 hours!!!

[soonertwister]

Unless I'm mistaking thats 12 hours!!!

It's also to only 170 mph, not 175.

Also, to suggest that from category 3 to category 5 in 12 (or 15) hours is somehow more impressive than from less than a hurricane to category 3 is not vaild.

A category 3 hurricane is already established and ready to jump in intensity if conditions are right.

They eye of Rita only became apparent just a few short hours ago. Rita rates as more impressive intesification without a doubt.

And look at the locations of the storms, and tell me that Rita is less impressive at this point than Katrina was. I'm not buying that one.

[SamSagnella]

Katrina:
27/0600---wind: 110mph---pressure: 963mb
27/0900---wind: 115mph---pressure: 945mb
27/1200---wind: 115mph---pressure: 940mb
27/1500---wind: 115mph---pressure: 940mb
27/1800---wind: 115mph---pressure: 949mb
27/2100---wind: 115mph---pressure: 945mb
28/0000---wind: 115mph---pressure: 944mb
28/0300---wind: 115mph---pressure: 939mb
28/0600---wind: 145mph---pressure: 935mb
28/0900---wind: 145mph---pressure: 935mb
28/1200---wind: 160mph---pressure: 908mb
28/1500---wind: 175mph---pressure: 907mb
28/1800---wind: 175mph---pressure: 906mb
28/2100---wind: 175mph---pressure: 902mb

[thunderchief]

I beleive the record is 100 mb in 24 hours in a pacific system.

katrina dropped 32mb in 12 hours so thats pretty good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[soonertwister]

Rita: 24.1 83.2 = 100 knots
Katrina: 25.0 86.2 = 100 knots

Rocket science, right?

[hicksta]

Amazing

[NorthGaWeather]

Rita: 24.1 83.2 = 100 knots
Katrina: 25.0 86.2 = 100 knots

Rocket science, right?

Whats your point. Katrina was 3 degrees further left? WOW!

[soonertwister]

Rita: 24.1 83.2 = 100 knots
Katrina: 25.0 86.2 = 100 knots

Rocket science, right?

Whats your point. Katrina was 3 degrees further left? WOW!

Katrina was a 60 knots tropical storm at 3PM EDT on 8/25. At 11PM EDT on 8/28 Katrina was at 100 knots, an increase of 40 knots over 80 hours.

Rita was a 60 knot tropical storm at 8AM EDT on 9/20. At 2AM on 9/21 Rita was at 100 knots, an increase of 40 knots over 18 hours.

At this point Rita is roughly 180 miles east and 50 miles south of Katrina, and MUCH earlier in her lifecyle. Not only that, Rita is projected to make landfall well to the west of Katrina, will be over warm waters longer, has similar climatic conditions, and is moving considerably faster.

Rocket science, right?

(That's right, I'm a rocket scientist. It takes that kind of deductive reasoning to assume that Rita might actually rival Katrina in intensity. And I'm a monkey's uncle, too. Or is is we are just related? Oh well, relationships aren't everything...)

[soonertwister]

BTW, for you fanatics involved in the envy contest, I'm merely reporting these facts in the interest of truth and justice.

So in that spirit of goodness, here are the facts about Katrina:

At 5AM EDT on August 27, Katrina first attained 100 knot winds.
At 8AM EDT on August 27, Katrina still retained 100 knot winds.
At 10AM CDT on August 27, Katrina still retained 100 knot winds.
At 1PM CDT on August 27, Katrina still retained 100 knot winds.
At 4PM EDT on August 27, Katrina still retained 100 knot winds.
At 7PM CDT on August 27, Katrina still retained 100 knot winds.
At 10PM EDT on August 27, Katrina still retained 100 knot winds.

So when you talk about Katrina going from 115 to 175 mph in 18 hours, I hope you will also note that Katrina went from 115 to 175 mph over 36 hours. Both are equally correct.

If Rita stays at 100 knots for 18 hours, please let me know. Then I will start the watch on the 115 to 175 mph wind clock. After all, sitting stagnant for 18 hours and going crazy for 18 hours after that has to count for something.