Houston is Not New Orleans

[inotherwords]

Those Cat 5 storm surge areas are in some of Houston's poorest inner city neighborhoods.

I really hope this doesn't happen.

[Marilyn]

"60% of the deaths are caused by rainfall flooding and with the exception of Katrina, all of the very high death tolls (Georges, Mitch, Gordon, Jeanne), have been due to the rainfall"

The article I linked said 90% of the deaths were caused by storm surge.

And it's misleading to talk about the flooding effects cause by Jeanne and Georges, which was the result of them hitting deforested Hispanolia. A tropical storm will kill thousands in Haiti. Mitch sat and span next to Honduras for days, which Rita won't do. Not sure about Gordon but I suspect a similar story there.

what about Floyd in 1999

the vast majority of deaths came from inland flooding

as was the case with Allison in 2001

its been said for a while now that inland flooding has been a real killer with hurricanes

I know this first Hand living in N.Carolina Its true flooding from Floyd killed more People than the wind damage did and this was far inland he was a cat 3 NOT A CAT 4

[Shoshana]

FYI

pop of Mississippi 2.8 million (2000 census)

pop of 4.8 million in Louisana

pop of 4.7 million for the greater Houston area. Not counting all the cities and towns on the Central Texas Coast....

The evacuees that are at the Astrodome are being flown to Arkansas. The Astrodome isn't a good shelter during a hurricane - it has a glass roof.

[inotherwords]

I believe that Houston is currently the 4th biggest city in the country by population.

[bayoubebe]

Keep in mind, the EYE did not hit N.O. I think if it had, the whole damn city would be gone, ALL OF IT and ALL of the people that remained.

Also, the major problem for us was when the levees breached and the water from the lake came in.

Had that not happened, our damage wouldn't have been this extensive.

Houston, as pointed out, is much more populated.

If I were living there, I think I would take this storm seriously.

[LAwxrgal]

Keep in mind, the EYE did not hit N.O. I think if it had, the whole damn city would be gone, ALL OF IT and ALL of the people that remained.

Also, the major problem for us was when the levees breached and the water from the lake came in.

Had that not happened, our damage wouldn't have been this extensive.

Houston, as pointed out, is much more populated.

If I were living there, I think I would take this storm seriously.

Exactly. Katrina wasn't the worst-case scenario for NOLA, although it was very very bad. She came in to the east of the city, sparing most of it the eyewall. The most damage occurred in extreme SE LA and coastal Mississippi.

What's being forecast here is the absolute worst-case scenario for the Houston metro area. Basically: a hit to the south of the city, pushing a storm surge into Galveston Bay, putting it in the right-front quadrant. New Orleans wasn't in the right-front quadrant for Katrina and it was still very, very bad.

I hope everyone along the Texas coast is ready.

[MGC]

If a Cat-5 hits Houston/Galveston there is little you can do except leave. The hurricane would destroy most everthing......MGC

[ETXHAMXYL]

Take a Look at the Galveston Hurricane 1900 and tell me a Hurricane can't be all that bad or destructive in that Area. So our homes might not be underwater for weeks like NO. Looking at the BIG ONE in Galveston not many houses were standing in water...they weren't standing at all.

Texans don't want to brag about our storm was worse than your storm.
Whether it hits a city of 2 million or 200 we are talking people losing property, homes and yes lives. So if the wind doesn't get you, the surge doesn't get you, there are still tornados, lightning and ignorance that can get you.

Whether an F! tornado hits your house or an F5, Your house is still gone, same for hurricane.

No this might isn't going to be the end of the world maybe for you, but it can be for those who lose their lives in it and for their loved ones. So lets not get angry..lets pray for the people all along the coast.

[Radar]

BReb, just my two cents but I don't think it is appropiate for you to advocate that some people should not leave. Unless you are an emergency management official you should not being giving that type of advice. If anything as a concerned citizen you should be encouraging for all those who can to evacuate. I seriously hope those who can leave will, they may be safe from the storm surge but what about falling trees, flash flooding and tornados, no one in the track the hurricane is totally is safe from that! Please think of the implications before posting bad advice. Maybe the world is not ending but when you are in the landfalling area of a major hurricane it sure can feel like it!!!

[Shoshana]

For anyone not familiar with Texas hurricane history, the last cat 4 hurricane to hit a populated part of Texas was Carla 1961.

Carla was one of the first hurricanes seen by satellite - that fact saved unknown number of lives.

Here's info from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txlate20hur.htm

September 14th, 1961 (Carla): No list of Texas hurricanes would be complete without the mention of Carla, which made landfall near Port Lavaca. Carla was among the largest hurricanes of historical record (number 2 behind the Great New England Hurricane of 1938). The storm produced many tornadoes, gusts estimated to 175 m.p.h., torrential rains, and a 22 foot storm surge at Port O'Connor. Hurricane force gusts were seen along almost the entire Texas Coast. Winds gusted to 86 mph at Corpus Christi. Her path of devastation inland extended from Victoria to Dallas. The death toll of only 34 in Texas can be attributed in part to what was the largest peace time evacuation of an area in history. A quarter million people fled the middle and upper Texas coasts to move inland to safety.

There's a graphic showing the counties that were directly affected by Carla - wow.

wenty-six tornadoes were spawned, one of which tore apart 120 buildings and killed 6 in Galveston. Structures outside the seawall were severely damaged by the storm surge. Texas city saw 90% of its homes flooded. Surfside, near Freeport, saw extensive damage. The trail of destruction extended south to Point Isabel, where 4-5 foot storm surges were seen. Port O'Connor was 75% wiped out.

The Matagorda Island Air Force Base was virtually swept away. Damage there totaled $18 million. In Jefferson County, 180 miles from the landfalling storm, $17.5 million in damage occurred, with $14 million of it water damage. Rain totaled 19" at Votan. Three to four feet of water flooded Port Arthur. The only injuries reported there were due to snake bites. Total damages were estimated near $400 million. See Louisiana Hurricane History for more fringe effects from this large and destructive hurricane.

[AlabamaDave]

If the current trends in the forecast path hold, at least the storm won't make a DIRECT hit on Corpus or the Galveston-Houston areas. The Texas coast seems only moderately populated between those two areas -- some sizable towns and small cities will be affected severely, but we're not looking at a densely populated area like the NOLA - MS Gulf Coast region that got nailed by Katrina.

What about storm surge, though?? If Rita barrels through the Gulf at Cat 4 to Cat-5 status, we could be looking at another hurricane bringing in a Cat-5 surge, even if it weakens just before landfall. Also, the trajectory at landfall could be almost perpendicular to the coastline -- wouldn't that bring the worst possible surge?? I wonder whether a Cat-5 level surge could cause problems in Galveston, even if the storm is well down the coastline midway between there and Corpus Christi.

This is a nightmare - I can't even begin to believe this is happening.

[dwg71]

If the current trends in the forecast path hold, at least the storm won't make a DIRECT hit on Corpus or the Galveston-Houston areas. The Texas coast seems only moderately populated between those two areas -- some sizable towns and small cities will be affected severely, but we're not looking at a densely populated area like the NOLA - MS Gulf Coast region that got nailed by Katrina.

What about storm surge, though?? If Rita barrels through the Gulf at Cat 4 to Cat-5 status, we could be looking at another hurricane bringing in a Cat-5 surge, even if it weakens just before landfall. Also, the trajectory at landfall could be almost perpendicular to the coastline -- wouldn't that bring the worst possible surge?? I wonder whether a Cat-5 level surge could cause problems in Galveston, even if the storm is well down the coastline midway between there and Corpus Christi.

This is a nightmare - I can't even begin to believe this is happening.

Forecast has it coming in from the SSE, not as devestating as one coming in from the SE or E. If it comes in SE, its coming in further to the south.