WPAC: TY Saola

[P.K.]

Saola is next on the list.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 21.2N 151.7E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 22.6N 148.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT

[P.K.]

Track

WTPQ20 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 22.2N 151.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 70NM
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 22.7N 147.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
45HF 221800UTC 24.3N 142.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT =

[wxmann_91]

So what is the current number for the WPAC? Is the Atlantic still in the lead?

[P.K.]

This is named storm number 17.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look like the world class western Pacific team is now tied with the Atlatnic. In will likely score with another one soon.

[senorpepr]

031
WTPQ20 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 22.5N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 23.3N 146.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 230000UTC 25.1N 140.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 240000UTC 26.3N 137.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZSEP2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.5N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.3N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.8N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.4N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 150.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

NNNN

[Windy]

Wow. Who'd have thought that we'd have 17 named storms in the Atlantic in mid September... and that the Pacific would still be tied and fighting for a win.

[senorpepr]

Wow. Who'd have thought that we'd have 17 named storms in the Atlantic in mid September... and that the Pacific would still be tied and fighting for a win.

Actually... I hate to bust your bubble here, but the WPAC is leading. Saola was the 17th storm while Damrey is the 18th WPAC storm giving them the lead by one.

[P.K.]

Typhoon in 48 hours.

WTPQ20 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 23.0N 150.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 23.8N 146.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 230600UTC 26.0N 140.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 240600UTC 27.4N 137.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 25.2N 144.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 28.3N 139.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 240600UTC 31.8N 140.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 250600UTC 35.0N 145.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 30.1N 137.9E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 33.1N 140.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 260000UTC 35.3N 144.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 270000UTC 38.9N 153.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

The image seems to be a little bit distortionated, the cyclone is located to the South of Tokyo, not over Japan.

[P.K.]

That does look wrong. Track

WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 35.4N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 39.5N 152.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 270600UTC 40.5N 162.5E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =