Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

Ortt still has it well south of NHC, he has moved his track ever so slightly, but still a hit on or near corpus.

[Cookiely]

I have a knot in my stomach just thinking of what is about to happen. Its like that movie Groundhog Day. I just can't believe this is happening again so soon. Its like a nightmare. Wasn't last year bad enough, this year has to be worse. What will next year be like?

[djtil]

with the track setting up far enough from galveston/houston......its a tough call for mass evacuation plans in those areas.....i know the media is swarming around this dramatic "houston hit" but that doesnt appear to be the case at this time.

interesting.

[loon]

with the track setting up far enough from galveston/houston......its a tough call for mass evacuation plans in those areas.....i know the media is swarming around this dramatic "houston hit" but that doesnt appear to be the case at this time.

interesting.

These statements amaze me. Should it miss by 50-100 miles...isn't that freaking close enough? I mean, its mother nature, its hard to be perfect. You are asking for evacs to only go out when you know for sure its going to hit a certain 25 mile stretch of beach...I for one would no doubt continue evac plans, its the RESPONSIBLE thing to do in a mass populated area....else wait till 30 hours out, then find out it IS coming, and don't have a plan....oh wait, we tried that...New Orleans..

[dwg71]

I agree with evacuating the island, but the whole county isnt going to leave. If it hits near matagorda bay, an evac of League city isnt necessary.

[superfly]

These statements amaze me. Should it miss by 50-100 miles...isn't that freaking close enough? I mean, its mother nature, its hard to be perfect. You are asking for evacs to only go out when you know for sure its going to hit a certain 25 mile stretch of beach...I for one would no doubt continue evac plans, its the RESPONSIBLE thing to do in a mass populated area....else wait till 30 hours out, then find out it IS coming, and don't have a plan....oh wait, we tried that...New Orleans..

Contrary to what people may want to believe, those who were able to and wanted to evac out of New Orleans were able to do so. The only people left either could not evac or didn't want to of their own accord.

[loon]

These statements amaze me. Should it miss by 50-100 miles...isn't that freaking close enough? I mean, its mother nature, its hard to be perfect. You are asking for evacs to only go out when you know for sure its going to hit a certain 25 mile stretch of beach...I for one would no doubt continue evac plans, its the RESPONSIBLE thing to do in a mass populated area....else wait till 30 hours out, then find out it IS coming, and don't have a plan....oh wait, we tried that...New Orleans..

Contrary to what people may want to believe, those who were able to and wanted to evac out of New Orleans were able to do so. The only people left either could not evac or didn't want to of their own accord.

And contrary to what people want to believe here, just because its mandatory, doesn't mean they are going door to door. They just wont come help you during the storm. Therefore, AGAIN, I'm saying, its the responsible thing for the local govt's to do.

edit: not to mention, your statement is contradictory to itself....interesting..those that could leave did, the only ones that didn't leave where those that couldn't....lol...beautifully put...

[djtil]

new orleans issued evacuations in plenty of time, and the forecast track was a direct new orleans hit 3 days out, people didnt leave.

thats why i said "interesting"....its interesting and not an easy decision on how to handle this right now.....due to the borderline "closeness" to a major metro area....the difference between the current forecast track and a direct houston hit is a fair distance.

i tend to agree that whatever precautions that would be taken if a direct hit was forecast, be taken even though the official forecast is 100 miles southwest, especially galveston.........houston metro, away from the water, is a tougher call.

the good news in all of this is that it appears that the nightmare scenario will be somewhat softened and houston/galveston could get a glancing blow, a strong glancing blow, but "50 - 100" miles could mean all the difference in the world.

[dwg71]

36 hours of Thursday evening is ample time to evac coastal counties.

[loon]

36 hours of Thursday evening is ample time to evac coastal counties.

Isn't that when they started? I was never doubting the timeframe...

[superfly]

Contrary to what people may want to believe, those who were able to and wanted to evac out of New Orleans were able to do so. The only people left either could not evac or didn't want to of their own accord.

And contrary to what people want to believe here, just because its mandatory, doesn't mean they are going door to door. They just wont come help you during the storm. Therefore, AGAIN, I'm saying, its the responsible thing for the local govt's to do.

edit: not to mention, your statement is contradictory to itself....interesting..those that could leave did, the only ones that didn't leave where those that couldn't....lol...beautifully put...

By couldn't, I obviously mean didn't have the means to leave as in a car or finances, not "couldn't" as in "couldn't leave in time."

36 hours out if plenty of time to evac New Orleans. As they say, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Same here, some people simply don't want to leave.

[loon]

Contrary to what people may want to believe, those who were able to and wanted to evac out of New Orleans were able to do so. The only people left either could not evac or didn't want to of their own accord.

And contrary to what people want to believe here, just because its mandatory, doesn't mean they are going door to door. They just wont come help you during the storm. Therefore, AGAIN, I'm saying, its the responsible thing for the local govt's to do.

edit: not to mention, your statement is contradictory to itself....interesting..those that could leave did, the only ones that didn't leave where those that couldn't....lol...beautifully put...

By couldn't, I obviously mean didn't have the means to leave as in a car or finances, not "couldn't" as in "couldn't leave in time."

36 hours out if plenty of time to evac New Orleans. As they say, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Same here, some people simply don't want to leave.

Well , I guess we are arguing two different points, as I thought the statements were made concerning the need/use of mandatory evacs, and I was on the side of needed them. You seem to be arguing that it doesn't matter because people will go or stay regardless, which I do not argue with that.

[superfly]

Well , I guess we are arguing two different points, as I thought the statements were made concerning the need/use of mandatory evacs, and I was on the side of needed them. You seem to be arguing that it doesn't matter because people will go or stay regardless, which I do not argue with that.

No, I agree with mandatory evacs, but not premature ones. I don't know the logistics of a Houston evac, but I know for New Orleans, the mandatory evac order was given in plenty of time for people to leave if they had the means to and wanted to.

[fci]

superfly wrote:
Contrary to what people may want to believe, those who were able to and wanted to evac out of New Orleans were able to do so. The only people left either could not evac or didn't want to of their own accord.

I'm sorry but this statement is hysterical!!

You definitely covered all bases.
It is certainly profound:

"People either evacuated...... or they didn't."

WOW, Now I am enlightened!!!!!


Let me guess the next profound statement:
"The storm will either hit Galveston/Houston......or, it won't"

Now we all know

[dwg71]

He said they either could not (physically or finacially) or the refused. Those that wanted out - got out.

[HurryKane]

He said they either could not (physically or finacially) or the refused. Those that wanted out - got out.

Yep. He qualified the "dids" and "didn'ts" well enough in his statement for it to be quite reasonable. No need to 'laugh' at it.

[fci]

He said they either could not (physically or finacially) or the refused. Those that wanted out - got out.

Yep. He qualified the "dids" and "didn'ts" well enough in his statement for it to be quite reasonable. No need to 'laugh' at it.

OK, I made fun of it because as written, it said that people either evacuated, or did not evacuate.
The original statement is being qualified after the fact... to make sense
Re-read it; I was just having fun.


Pretty soon there will be no humor left in this situation and I will joke no more at what might happen. But I could not resist the statement as originally posted......(besides it is really early and I'm half asleep)


No need for additional comment; just having fun....

[caribepr]

Just for a bit of a twist (translate that to be a reminder)...what about the tourists (many filmed, quoted) who DID want to leave, who had the money to leave and who could not find a rental car, or an airline to get out? There just isn't some pat, all encompassing way to say the reasons people did or didn't leave any of the areas hit by Katrina - millions of people, millions of stories. As there will be again. And again.

[Hunter74]

According to MSNBC, Rita is at 110 mph and moving at 12 mph. I'm getting more concerned for a direct hit on Galveston or Freeport.

Hey HouTex, I not to far from you. Pearland near beltway. Are you sitting it out?? Im not really sure.....

I don't know. If the Storm comes Right Through Freeport or Galveston Bay as a cat 5 I will reluctantly go. I have three Big dogs and I don't want to leave them here to fend for themselves.

I hope to heck you can take your dogs with you, or find a shelter/kennel (anything to keep them safe) if you decide to leave.. That is basically murder leaving them behind.. GL and God Bless You and your animals (they are familly to)

[Nimbus]

CorpusChristi has a population of 300,000 but they don't have the evacuation problem Galveston island has.

The ridge remains strong and is not chasing the last trough impulse east as fast as you would have expected.

48 hours of continued westward ridge steering could bring Rita in along Derek Ortts' track so it should not be discounted.

With the recurve uncertainties even in as close as 24 hours before landfall there is still likely to be a better than 1 in 10 chance for a direct hit on Houston. Because of the the storm surge situation only the early recurve east of the ridge scenario could have completely spared Houston.