If you thought Katrina was bad.....

[arcticfire]

A high-end direct Galveston hit would be catastrophic, but that's still pretty unlikely right now. Much more possible than it was a week ago, but still up in the air. Now, if this storm is a Cat 5 two days from landfall and is headed towards Galveston, then it's safe to hit the "OMFG Panic!" button like we did for Katrina.

It's unlikely that this storm will be as devastating as Katrina, but it's certainly possible.

In't not only possible, it's very possible. And to say that it's pretty unlikely that Galveston would get a direct hit is not true. It's not a 50% chance, but it is more than 20%, and that's extremely serious.

Actually, the probability of Galveston getting hurricane force winds in the next five days is now listed as only 17%. Again, there are so many statistical products put out by the NHC that there is no need to guesstimate on something like strike probs.

Even if it hits some 50 miles down the coast, a category 4 Rita will absolutely devastate Galveston and the low-lying areas south and southeast of Houston.

True, and if Godzilla attacks before then, it'll be even worse. I guess all I'm saying is that it is A) definately not certain that the storm will landfall at Cat 4, and B) definately not certain that the eye will pass near Galveston, TX. Given the variables involved, while it is very prudent to obey all local authorities and evacuate the area when they say to (which is RIGHT NOW for those in the area who are reading), there is no reason for anyone to be certain that a natural cataclysm anywhere near the level of Katrina (as suggested earlier) is about to occur. Yes, if all the stars align just so, it could be very bad. But that can be said about a lot of hurricanes that are still three days out.

hey now leave godzilla out of this , he was just missunderstood he really didn't mean to cause any harm. Hop in for a nice nucular snack and all of a sudden they start shooting at him , you'd get upset to if someone shot at you with a tank for trying to go to the deli.

[ObsessedMiami]

Just as an observation regarding the Texas National Guard being pre-positioned for aid: Here in Miami, Homestead Air Reserve Base had hundreds of semi trucks full of MRE's, Ice, Water, etc ready to roll as soon as US1 was safe to drive into the Keys after Rita. I think the criticism of post-Katrina sluggishness has resulted in dire political awareness of state governors and Washington not to make the same mistake twice. I am sure that Texas supplies are already being staged in some likely area.

[Jagno]

Granted, I do hope and pray that you folks in Texas get the dream response that you are all speaking of from your local, state, military and federal officials. However, our National Guard team was NOT on call. They are stationed in Iraq fighting a war. Secondly, my husband has served well over 90,000 (that is ninety thousand) meals cooked from scratch which was donated by our own local citizens and generous folks from around the world to our own shelter. The Red Cross, Feema, nor the military showed up for ELEVEN DAYS (11 days). Then, when they did show up they still had NO food. To add insult to injury they brought in the Southern Baptist cooking team who had no knowledge about cooking from scratch .....Feema pays them $.$$ per plate to warm ready made meals.... so they ended up being kitchen help and left today when they even suspected that the hurricaine might threaten our area.

Again, I think that each and every one of you needs to make up your mind right now that you can and will be able to provide for yourself and not depend on outside sources to care for you. JMHO along with 23 days of long experience with Katrina evacuees.

[timNms]

Granted, I do hope and pray that you folks in Texas get the dream response that you are all speaking of from your local, state, military and federal officials. However, our National Guard team was NOT on call. They are stationed in Iraq fighting a war. Secondly, my husband has served well over 90,000 (that is ninety thousand) meals cooked from scratch which was donated by our own local citizens and generous folks from around the world to our own shelter. The Red Cross, Feema, nor the military showed up for ELEVEN DAYS (11 days). Then, when they did show up they still had NO food. To add insult to injury they brought in the Southern Baptist cooking team who had no knowledge about cooking from scratch .....Feema pays them $.$$ per plate to warm ready made meals.... so they ended up being kitchen help and left today when they even suspected that the hurricaine might threaten our area.

Again, I think that each and every one of you needs to make up your mind right now that you can and will be able to provide for yourself and not depend on outside sources to care for you. JMHO along with 23 days of long experience with Katrina evacuees.

God Bless you and your husband!
I agree with your advice. Be sure you are prepared to sustain yourself for at least one week. Hopefully by then there will be somewhere you can go to get more food/supplies, etc. Wouldn't hurt to have enough supplies for a couple of weeks. I know next time we are faced with something like this, we'll be ready!

[soonertwister]

Actually, the probability of Galveston getting hurricane force winds in the next five days is now listed as only 17%. Again, there are so many statistical products put out by the NHC that there is no need to guesstimate on something like strike probs.

Even if it hits some 50 miles down the coast, a category 4 Rita will absolutely devastate Galveston and the low-lying areas south and southeast of Houston.

True, and if Godzilla attacks before then, it'll be even worse. I guess all I'm saying is that it is A) definately not certain that the storm will landfall at Cat 4, and B) definately not certain that the eye will pass near Galveston, TX. Given the variables involved, while it is very prudent to obey all local authorities and evacuate the area when they say to (which is RIGHT NOW for those in the area who are reading), there is no reason for anyone to be certain that a natural cataclysm anywhere near the level of Katrina (as suggested earlier) is about to occur. Yes, if all the stars align just so, it could be very bad. But that can be said about a lot of hurricanes that are still three days out.

The strike probabilities chart indicates that Freeport and Galveston have the two highest probabilites of the center of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles in the total forecast period. Yes, it is only 13%.

But the forecast period is through 2PM EDT Friday, when Rita is expected to be still well offshore. But make no mistake, there is high convergence of the reliable models, and a hit anywhere near or between those two cities will cause major damage in the Houston-Galveston metro area.

And if the NHC stops intensification in 24 hours at 115 knots and predicts no weakening until landfall, Rita will make landfall as a more powerful storm than Katrina.

Just watch how that strike percentage begins to soar as each six hour period passes. The only thing keeping it low is the projection that Rita will be well offshore at 2PM Friday. In 24 hours, the strike probability for Freeport and Galveston may very well be above 50%.

You have to be in denial. There's nothing out there to make Rita suddenly turn and go elsewhere. It can veer left or right, but the cone is based on historical accuracy and not the current situation. I predict landfall within 100 miles of where it's forecast right now, and probably within 50.

[soonertwister]

Actually, the probability of Galveston getting hurricane force winds in the next five days is now listed as only 17%. Again, there are so many statistical products put out by the NHC that there is no need to guesstimate on something like strike probs.

Even if it hits some 50 miles down the coast, a category 4 Rita will absolutely devastate Galveston and the low-lying areas south and southeast of Houston.

True, and if Godzilla attacks before then, it'll be even worse. I guess all I'm saying is that it is A) definately not certain that the storm will landfall at Cat 4, and B) definately not certain that the eye will pass near Galveston, TX. Given the variables involved, while it is very prudent to obey all local authorities and evacuate the area when they say to (which is RIGHT NOW for those in the area who are reading), there is no reason for anyone to be certain that a natural cataclysm anywhere near the level of Katrina (as suggested earlier) is about to occur. Yes, if all the stars align just so, it could be very bad. But that can be said about a lot of hurricanes that are still three days out.

The strike probabilities chart indicates that Freeport and Galveston have the two highest probabilites of the center of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles in the total forecast period. Yes, it is only 13%.

But the forecast period is through 2PM EDT Friday, when Rita is expected to be still well offshore. But make no mistake, there is high convergence of the reliable models, and a hit anywhere near or between those two cities will cause major damage in the Houston-Galveston metro area.

And if the NHC stops intensification in 24 hours at 115 knots and predicts no weakening until landfall, Rita will make landfall as a more powerful storm than Katrina.

Just watch how that strike percentage begins to soar as each six hour period passes. The only thing keeping it low is the projection that Rita will be well offshore at 2PM Friday. In 24 hours, the strike probability for Freeport and Galveston may very well be above 50%.

You have to be in denial. There's nothing out there to make Rita suddenly turn and go elsewhere. It can veer left or right, but the cone is based on historical accuracy and not the current situation. I predict landfall within 100 miles of where it's forecast right now, and probably within 50.

[timNms]

Actually, the probability of Galveston getting hurricane force winds in the next five days is now listed as only 17%. Again, there are so many statistical products put out by the NHC that there is no need to guesstimate on something like strike probs.

Even if it hits some 50 miles down the coast, a category 4 Rita will absolutely devastate Galveston and the low-lying areas south and southeast of Houston.

True, and if Godzilla attacks before then, it'll be even worse. I guess all I'm saying is that it is A) definately not certain that the storm will landfall at Cat 4, and B) definately not certain that the eye will pass near Galveston, TX. Given the variables involved, while it is very prudent to obey all local authorities and evacuate the area when they say to (which is RIGHT NOW for those in the area who are reading), there is no reason for anyone to be certain that a natural cataclysm anywhere near the level of Katrina (as suggested earlier) is about to occur. Yes, if all the stars align just so, it could be very bad. But that can be said about a lot of hurricanes that are still three days out.

The strike probabilities chart indicates that Freeport and Galveston have the two highest probabilites of the center of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles in the total forecast period. Yes, it is only 13%.

But the forecast period is through 2PM EDT Friday, when Rita is expected to be still well offshore. But make no mistake, there is high convergence of the reliable models, and a hit anywhere near or between those two cities will cause major damage in the Houston-Galveston metro area.

And if the NHC stops intensification in 24 hours at 115 knots and predicts no weakening until landfall, Rita will make landfall as a more powerful storm than Katrina.

Just watch how that strike percentage begins to soar as each six hour period passes. The only thing keeping it low is the projection that Rita will be well offshore at 2PM Friday. In 24 hours, the strike probability for Freeport and Galveston may very well be above 50%.

You have to be in denial. There's nothing out there to make Rita suddenly turn and go elsewhere. It can veer left or right, but the cone is based on historical accuracy and not the current situation. I predict landfall within 100 miles of where it's forecast right now, and probably within 50.

NHC has been pretty much right on with their landfall, once they narrow the cone of uncertainty down.

[Windy]

The strike probabilities chart indicates that Freeport and Galveston have the two highest probabilites of the center of the hurricane passing within 65 nautical miles in the total forecast period. Yes, it is only 13%.

But the forecast period is through 2PM EDT Friday, when Rita is expected to be still well offshore.

No it is not. You are not reading the product (that I posted) correctly. Go back and look at the product again. You are correct that the product that you are looking at is worthless because it does not look that far out, but the product I posted (experimental wind probabilites) does have value.

I am not in denial, I'm going by official track forecast and probabilites. You're pulling numbers out of a hat and insisting that it's ridiculous to say that this storm is going anywhere other than Galveston. In case you didn't notice, none of the global models are pointing at Galveston right now (they're much closer to Corpus Christi), and neither is the center of the NHC cone. Can Galveston take a hit from hurricane force winds? Yes. Is it sure? No. What are the odds? About 1 in 6 right now. Can Galveston take a direct hit? Yes. Is it sure? No. What are the odds? Unknown, but obviously less than 17%.

I do fully expect that the odds will continue to go up as time goes on. The next update will probably have the odds for Galveston (and a few other places) higher. And the odds for Galveston will skyrocket if, as time goes on, the forecast cone shifts north at all. As T decreases, forecast certainty increases.

[simplyme]

Thought of the evening...

How many NOLA (and other affected areas) evacuees are currently sheltered in Houston? I thought there was a large shelter there for them.

If Rita hits near Houston, how does that play into an emergency preparedness plan?

[jasons2k]

From Mayor Bill White last night:

'You need to get prepared and remain calm. There is not going to be "some big government agency around to tell you what to do and where to go at all times. You will need to use your common sense."'

Classic.

[Wacahootaman]

You reckon that Al Quaeda feller gots him a hurricane machine?

[TSmith274]

As I sit here in New Orleans on my second night back, my thoughts and prayers are with the Houston area right now. Yall really came through for us in our time of need. That goes for the entire state of Texas as well. Katrina made me hate hurricanes. I used to love following them, and I'm still fascinated by them, but I have learned to hate them. Just about all of my friends and family lost their homes. Some will never return. It just sucks. Just be careful, and get out of Rita's way. I wish we could help, but we can't... all we can do is pray for you.

The surge will be bad. I'm not familiar with the topography in the Houston area. But, hopefully, any flooding will drain away quickly... and lives will be spared. Good luck.

[HurryKane]

Katrina made me hate hurricanes. I used to love following them, and I'm still fascinated by them, but I have learned to hate them. Just about all of my friends and family lost their homes. Some will never return. It just sucks.

Ditto. It has taken me three weeks to get the stomach back to even read S2K for more than a few minutes. I no longer care to track them. I just don't want them here. I no longer admire them for their beauty. I just want them to wimp out.

Just be careful, and get out of Rita's way. I wish we could help, but we can't... all we can do is pray for you.

The surge will be bad. I'm not familiar with the topography in the Houston area. But, hopefully, any flooding will drain away quickly... and lives will be spared. Good luck.

Hear hear. Good luck to all of you; I wouldn't wish what we've had for the last three weeks on anyone save Bin Laden.

[vbhoutex]

Thought of the evening...

How many NOLA (and other affected areas) evacuees are currently sheltered in Houston? I thought there was a large shelter there for them.

If Rita hits near Houston, how does that play into an emergency preparedness plan?

Those that were in the Reliant shelters were moved to Fort Chaffee Arkansas today.

[quandary]

Ok lets not make a frenzy out of this beforehand.

A few soothing thoughts:

First, Rita is very unlikely to be more damaging than Katrina. Katrina flooded 80% of New Orleans. It made an extremely large city completely inhabitable. So even though Katrina did not take the worst path, it did nearly as much as it could damagewise. Add that to the 918 pressure at landfall, which, if we have already forgotten, was the 3rd lowest on record. True Katrina's winds were only 140-145 mph at landfall, but 918mb storms cause 918mb damage. That's what Joe Bastardi said, which makes a lot of logical sense. Wind speed might not be based on pressure, but surge is, as is damage, since a 918mb storm with 145 mph winds will have them extend out very far as Katrina's did, whereas a 918 storm with 180mph winds will have them extend out only as far as Andrew's did. So as long as the storm does not make direct landfall on a city, which is rare probabilistically (100s of miles of coastline, less than dozens of miles of real heavy duty city).

More likely than not, Rita will be bad. Maybe it will pull a Bret and hit an unpopulated area, where even 115 (or 145mph, by the same token) winds will not do much. More likely, it'll make landfall near but not over a major city. Damage will be widespread, just like during Charley or Ivan or Andrew, but it will likely not be the economically devastating impact of Katrina.

[weatherSnoop]

This storm is already larger than Andrew and Charley! There is 100 miles (give or take) of the gulf coast demolished by Katrina. It is not just the flooding aftermath in New Orleans that counts.

Please do not downplay the danger this storm poses to all on or near the Texas, Louisianna, and Mexico coast.

[southerngreen]

Thought of the evening...

How many NOLA (and other affected areas) evacuees are currently sheltered in Houston? I thought there was a large shelter there for them.

If Rita hits near Houston, how does that play into an emergency preparedness plan?

quite a lot of people were taken to the astrodome & others are being sheltered elsewhere in the city. there are a number of staging areas there for helping feed & relocate people & gather materials for repair to homes so it is a problem. i seem to remember a couple years back there was a summer storm in houston that flooded sections of the interstate and several people drowned.

if it were me, i'd be trying to find some way to get outta dodge (as a florida resident who WAS NOT in any of the worst hit areas last year various members of my family were still without power for over a week - one of them a 90 year old grandma & one recovering from surgery 2 days before) not worth the risk in my book. getting out NOW is an option - sure it's expensive, an inconvenience, a pain in the patoot, but so it dying.

[HurryKane]

Ok lets not make a frenzy out of this beforehand.

A few soothing thoughts:

First, Rita is very unlikely to be more damaging than Katrina. Katrina flooded 80% of New Orleans. It made an extremely large city completely inhabitable.

Man, I am sick to death of hearing about New Orleans as if it were the only thing Katrina touched. Yes, it flooded, not because Katrina was a real bad girl all on her own, but because NOLA's levees were also crap. However much of the Mississippi Gulf Coast was WIPED. OFF. THE. MAP. Not just flooded standing homes, but homes that were completely demolished and then shoved miles inland. There has been exponentially more damage in MS than in NOLA. That's a better yardstick to use when talking about how damaging Katrina is.

[timNms]

Ok lets not make a frenzy out of this beforehand.

A few soothing thoughts:

First, Rita is very unlikely to be more damaging than Katrina. Katrina flooded 80% of New Orleans. It made an extremely large city completely inhabitable.

Man, I am sick to death of hearing about New Orleans as if it were the only thing Katrina touched. Yes, it flooded, not because Katrina was a real bad girl all on her own, but because NOLA's levees were also crap. However much of the Mississippi Gulf Coast was WIPED. OFF. THE. MAP. Not just flooded standing homes, but homes that were completely demolished and then shoved miles inland. There has been exponentially more damage in MS than in NOLA. That's a better yardstick to use when talking about how damaging Katrina is.

I saw something on the Discovery Health Channel last night that made me cry. A man living in Bay St. Louis was videoing the surge as it came in and surrounded his home and neighborhood. Suddenly in the picture appeared a man, his children, and a dog. They were struggling in the winds and water and debris to climb into a small boat. The guy videoing tried to get to them to bring them in his house, but could not because of the wind, water, and debris. He said they soon disappeared. After the storm, it turns out that it was his neighbor and his children that he'd videod. The mother of the children was being interviewed and she said that her husband and children made it safely to the boat, but she lost her mother in the house. She said my mother told them that she was just too old and tired to try to make it to the boat, put her head down and stayed in the house. The husband watched as the house collapsed on top of her! My heart broke for the lady. I'm not sure where she had been during the storm. I assumed she had to be at a hospital or something.
As bad as it was here, I know it had to be 10 times worse along our coastline, especially in Hancock county!

[inotherwords]

Quandary, I hope you'll be prepared to eat a nice blackened crow sammich if you're wrong.

I remember a guy in this forum who was saying the NO hit would be "no big deal" and came here after landfall to brag about how he was right. And then the city flooded and the nightmare started with the shelters. He hasn't been here since.