12Z models

dwg71 · #1 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:43 am

GFDL shifts about 40 miles west and is now in line with NHC landfall point .

#2 Postby **linkerweather** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:46 am

Those are the 06z models.
the time stamp on the GFDL is simply when it is cranked out, but it is the 06z run.

dwg71 · #3 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:47 am

MM5 moved about 50 miles south and west.

21 0z Run - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

20 12z Run - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

dwg71 · #4 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:48 am

linkerweather wrote:Those are the 06z models.
the time stamp on the GFDL is simply when it is cranked out, but it is the 06z run.

It just updated, that is the most recent run...

#5 Postby **linkerweather** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 6:51 am

It is the MOST RECENT RUN which was at 06z

The time stamp on the GFDL says 11 something but the model is from 06z and the bams models all still say 06z

The 12z models will be cranked out at 12z which is precisely 8 am edt
and the output on that site will come in about 20 past 8

#6 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:07 am

http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/4338 ... am22gd.jpg

Derecho · #7 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:16 am

linkerweather wrote:It is the MOST RECENT RUN which was at 06z

The time stamp on the GFDL says 11 something but the model is from 06z and the bams models all still say 06z

The 12z models will be cranked out at 12z which is precisely 8 am edt
and the output on that site will come in about 20 past 8

Well, just the NHC models (which really aren't that important).

The 12Z GFDL will come out at about 1:30PM eastern, of course.

#8 Postby **linkerweather** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:20 am

skysummit wrote:http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/4338/rita092105am22gd.jpg

Those are also the 06z models.

Go to this site around 2 hours past run time for all the models. (early cycle)

and about 8 hours past run time for lte cycle (GFDL etc)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

#9 Postby **linkerweather** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:23 am

Derecho wrote:
linkerweather wrote:It is the MOST RECENT RUN which was at 06z

The time stamp on the GFDL says 11 something but the model is from 06z and the bams models all still say 06z

The 12z models will be cranked out at 12z which is precisely 8 am edt
and the output on that site will come in about 20 past 8

Well, just the NHC models (which really aren't that important).

The 12Z GFDL will come out at about 1:30PM eastern, of course.

Of course I was referring to the site and the models that the initial poster was referencing

dwg71 · #10 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:51 am

Other models, have shifted south and west as well. It appears that NHC track is the outlier to the east. Expect adjustment to west at 10PM

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:52 am

Very tightly clustered...

#12 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:53 am

thats what you said yesterday and they went north

#13 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:59 am

ivanhater wrote:thats what you said yesterday and they went north

Well you know, it's getting to be in that three-day window of potential landfall. And it's not like this forecast is hard. There's a huge dome of high pressure sitting on top of it, even stronger than the one Katrina had.
The forecast models and the NHC have been very good in this time frame. Three days before Katrina hit, the forecast became crystallized -- a landfall in southern Plaquemines parish in SE LA, and a pass between NOLA and Biloxi. Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:00 am

ivanhater wrote:thats what you said yesterday and they went north

A couple went north? :roll:

The NHC and most of the reliable models have not budged... I think it's pretty obvious it's going to Texas...

#15 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:01 am

Brent wrote:
ivanhater wrote:thats what you said yesterday and they went north

A couple went north?

The NHC and most of the reliable models have not budged... I think it's pretty obvious it's going to Texas...

im talking about his comment yesterday saying "watch for them to shift south" and they went north

oneness · #16 Postby **oneness** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:03 am

Wasn't it more like 2.5 days out that the NHC line basically nailed it?

dwg71 · #17 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:27 am

It appears to me that the models have straightend out and making it more of a SE landfall rather than a SSE. Initial heading is going to be crucial, it appear that a hard curve is not forecast.

Lets hope the Xtrap model pans out :wink:

#18 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:30 am

Yep solid Texas. Time for you coastal residents to hit the road!

ROCK · #19 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:33 am

dwg71 wrote:It appears to me that the models have straightend out and making it more of a SE landfall rather than a SSE. Initial heading is going to be crucial, it appear that a hard curve is not forecast.

Lets hope the Xtrap model pans out

no doubt.. Have you seen her lately??....cat 5 or very close.....holy crud....

HouTXmetro · #20 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:57 am

So, is there a consensus that Rita will make landfall in Matagorda or points Southward?

12Z models

12Z models

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