I DARE you to read this and not shiver.

aOl · #1 Postby **aOl** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:18 am

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME VERY POORLY
DEFINED.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 1045 MILES...1680 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

Just imagine spooky music as you read UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. It adds to the effect.

Gets me every time...

f5 · #2 Postby f5 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:19 am

that regeneration turn out to be a katastrophie

SamSagnella · #3 Postby **SamSagnella** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:20 am

i failed...definitely heebie-jeebie material

JTD · #4 Postby **JTD** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:23 am

Remember that advisory well.

I totally wrote TD #10 off :eek:

However, to be technical, TD #12 became Katrina but it did spawn from the same entity.

HurryKane · #5 Postby **HurryKane** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:24 am

I didn't shiver. I just got really angry and kicked a random log from my debris pile.

JamesFromMaine2 · #6 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:59 am

How about trying to read this? I think this is worse because its bad enough it happend once but just the thought that it could happen again with Rita makes me sick! :crying:

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.[/code]

Dmetal81 · #7 Postby **Dmetal81** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:29 am

The fact of the matter is, the conditions seem to be more favorable for Rita then they were for Katrina... possibly 2 cat 5's in one year... amazing

#8 Postby **Jevo** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:38 am

I too was shivering when I read this.............

DOH!! my wife had the air down to 70 and the fan on

:froze:

JamesFromMaine2 · #9 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:40 am

yeah and the fact that they have no recon out in Rita right now is making me mad! IR looks like it could be bombing out right now and theres no recon!

InimanaChoogamaga · #10 Postby **InimanaChoogamaga** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:14 am

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:yeah and the fact that they have no recon out in Rita right now is making me mad! IR looks like it could be bombing out right now and theres no recon!

Multiple computer failures. That's just sad. The NHC needs to do a fundraiser.

JamesFromMaine2 · #11 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:29 am

yeah I read that in the Discussion this morning! I hope they can get them fixed or get replacements set to go soon! They even said this morning that based on sat. it could be stronger then what they are saying!

#12 Postby **abajan** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:10 am

Dmetal81 wrote:The fact of the matter is, the conditions seem to be more favorable for Rita then they were for Katrina... possibly 2 cat 5's in one year... amazing

It's more than amazing when one considers that Cat 5's are so rare you normally only get one per decade!

Ixolib · #13 Postby **Ixolib** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:52 am

abajan wrote:It's more than amazing when one considers that Cat 5's are so rare you normally only get one per decade!

With the "new trend" in tropical systems, that stat may be one for the history books. The future will be interesting indeed...

#14 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:55 am

Ixolib wrote:
abajan wrote:It's more than amazing when one considers that Cat 5's are so rare you normally only get one per decade!

With the "new trend" in tropical systems, that stat may be one for the history books. The future will be interesting indeed...

How many Cat 5's have we already had this decade? For sure, we've had Isabel, Ivan, Katrina...now possibly Rita. Were there any in the early part of the decade?

aOl · #15 Postby **aOl** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:59 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
abajan wrote:It's more than amazing when one considers that Cat 5's are so rare you normally only get one per decade!

With the "new trend" in tropical systems, that stat may be one for the history books. The future will be interesting indeed...

How many Cat 5's have we already had this decade? For sure, we've had Isabel, Ivan, Katrina...now possibly Rita. Were there any in the early part of the decade?

Mitch...

#16 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:02 am

aOl wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
abajan wrote:It's more than amazing when one considers that Cat 5's are so rare you normally only get one per decade!

With the "new trend" in tropical systems, that stat may be one for the history books. The future will be interesting indeed...

How many Cat 5's have we already had this decade? For sure, we've had Isabel, Ivan, Katrina...now possibly Rita. Were there any in the early part of the decade?

Mitch...

This could be our 4th this year!!!!!!!!!! (Dennis in re-anyalsis) Dont want to think about next year. :cry:

#17 Postby **Pebbles** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:02 am

Have we forgotten about the other REALLY powerful hurricanes we've had already earlier this season. Personally I would like to know the record for number of storms in 1 season to reach cat 4/5 status. That's really what's freaky about all this. The fact that Powerful after powerful storms have been whipping up all season.

#18 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:04 am

Pebbles wrote:Have we forgotten about the other REALLY powerful hurricanes we've had already earlier this season. Personally I would like to know the record for number of storms in 1 season to reach cat 4/5 status. That's really what's freaky about all this. The fact that Powerful after powerful storms have been whipping up all season.

What 6 Cat5's and I lost count on Cat4's since 2003!!!!!!!!!1 There were only three major canes Cat3 in 1933 nothing stronger!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#19 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:31 am

aOl wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
abajan wrote:It's more than amazing when one considers that Cat 5's are so rare you normally only get one per decade!

With the "new trend" in tropical systems, that stat may be one for the history books. The future will be interesting indeed...

How many Cat 5's have we already had this decade? For sure, we've had Isabel, Ivan, Katrina...now possibly Rita. Were there any in the early part of the decade?

Mitch...

I know, but he was in 1998. I was thinking since 2000.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #20 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:45 am

I seriously doubt Dennis gets upgraded to a category 5 in post-analysis...but I would not say that about Emily. Remember that one discussion where it said that Emily briefly reached category 5 status.

I DARE you to read this and not shiver.

I DARE you to read this and not shiver.

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