joe b said new development in bahamas soon?

[johngaltfla]

And I suppose that an area not yet affected by a storm this year is a likely target. Like ....... Tampa?

Sheesh

I vote we get this year off. The Bucs are 2-0 and we really don't need that much rain.

Or wind.

Or storm surge.

Or FEMA.

[Stratusxpeye]

Jeesh ok what one of you really really pissed off natures mother? Is anyone dating her daughter here? Crazy monster storms this year. It's amazing

[johngaltfla]

And I suppose that an area not yet affected by a storm this year is a likely target. Like ....... Tampa?

Sheesh

I vote we get this year off. The Bucs are 2-0 and we really don't need that much rain.

Or wind.

Or storm surge.

Or FEMA.

[rockyman]

Jeesh ok what one of you really really pissed off natures mother? Is anyone dating her daughter here? Crazy monster storms this year. It's amazing

Monster-in-Law?

[gpickett00]

its doubtful that anything forming in the bahamas would be too intense. wait and see.

Katrina?????? Rita??????

[rainstorm]

its doubtful that anything forming in the bahamas would be too intense. wait and see.

Katrina?????? Rita??????

rita and katrina will cool off the gom sst's too much for a big cane there, and ophelia cooled sst's off the se coast

[Canelaw99]

Katrina obviously didn't cool them off since Rita passed over a similar place, plus it's been long enough for them to warm up again. Rita might cool it off temporarily, but the SSTs should be back to normal bathtub/sauna temps in a couple days.

[feederband]

I agree cancel rest of season...Start it back up in 2010....Maybe if we just ignore them they will go away...

[ronjon]

Yeah, JB mentioned it on point/counterpoint yesterday. He gets excited when these big ole highs come off the New England Coast (which is forecast this weekend) - he says the Clockwise spin helps get the disturbances down near the Bahamas the startup twist they need to form lows. Sounds like psuedo-science to me but he did correctly predict the development of the Big O a couple of weeks back under similar circumstances.

[Doc Seminole]

Sounds like psuedo-science to me but he did correctly predict the development of the Big O a couple of weeks back under similar circumstances.

And I specifically remember him saying "the Bahamas, between Sept. 17th and Sept. 21st" which I thought was Rita but maybe Stan also.

Doc Seminole

[cjrciadt]

What to do with JB

[jrod]

I think what will happen is a much weaker than forecasted Phillipe will miss the trough and its chance to catch the westerlies and will be the storm that JB is talking about in that location. It is a long shot but this is another topic on JB so I cant help but give a wild forecast.

Currently no models are indicating this is a possibity, but dont be suprised if at least one shift far to the left when they are re-initialized with a much weaker storm.

[jrod]

2x post.


I dont see Bastardi as a forecaster but more of a weather analysist. He lays out the different scenerios, some of them being wild, and what needs to happen for the scenerio to happen. I love his insight to the weather pattern.

[inotherwords]

OK, I have an idea. How about we tell everybody along the GOM coast to go throw a big bag of ice into the Gulf?

[arcticfire]

I say lets go for it , lets get another 10 storms in this season , throw in a few more majors too. That way no matter how active 2006 is , it will seem calm.

[no advance]

JRod He think he looks at the Euro. for his forcast.

[caneseddy]

If you read the 5am NHC discussion on Phillipe you can see that the NHC mentions the GFS is showing a piece of the system behind when the trough picks up Phillipe, although they are rejecting it at he same time

So it looks like the GFS is picking up on the same thing

IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION... ALTHOUGH AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0201Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...350/4...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE SLOWER STARTING SPEED DICTATES A LITTLE SLOWER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME GENERAL PATH AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL/ UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT PHILIPPEWILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN THE SUBTROPICS. THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

[/b]

[gatorcane]

Damn you beat me to it with that post:

NHC 5am discussion:

A
SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS
RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME

.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Damn you beat me to it with that post:

NHC 5am discussion:

A
SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS
RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN
THE SUBTROPICS. THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME

.

You can clearly see that prospect here..Phillipe looks dead and the piece of Endergy is coming west..

[tailgater]

Next year no more women's names that end with an A
Katrina
Ophelia
Rita