joe b said new development in bahamas soon?

[gatorcane]

You can clearly see that prospect here..Phillipe looks dead and the piece of Endergy is coming west..

It's been the story of the Atlantic storms this season. They stealthily avoid troughs by weakening enough to scoot past them and then waiting to blow up when the ridge replaces the trough.

[Frank2]

Of the five model runs I viewed this morning, only one showed a weak low moving across South Florida four or five days from now - perhaps this is what AccuWeather is mentioning...

Still, it did not look to be anything to get into a spin over (pun not intended) as that same model kept it weak well across the Gulf, and I believe might have dissipated it entirely..

Frank

[BayouVenteux]

Next year no more women's names that end with an A
Katrina
Ophelia
Rita

Oh great. Wilma!?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Of the five model runs I viewed this morning, only one showed a weak low moving across South Florida four or five days from now - perhaps this is what AccuWeather is mentioning...

Still, it did not look to be anything to get into a spin over (pun not intended) as that same model kept it weak well across the Gulf, and I believe might have dissipated it entirely..

Frank

Both Katrina and Rita were weak lows coming at the state too...Funny thing is Frank They will Change!

[CHRISTY]

can sombody post model links of this please thanks!or anyother info let me know!

[skysummit]

can sombody post model links of this please thanks!or anyother info let me know!

There are no models yet Christy. It's not an Invest area yet...just a possiblity down the road.

[CHRISTY]

what you think can it become an invest?? i listen to joe b he's been write on the dot with all these storms!so if he says something is gonna happen iam going to pay attention!

[Terrell]

Next year no more women's names that end with an A
Katrina
Ophelia
Rita

Lots of women's names end in a.

[Frank2]

Re: Christy's post

I haven't heard anything about an invest - even if this did come to pass, it would probably not be for a number of days...

Frank

[Canelaw99]

Interesting....this is from the 11am discussion re: Phillipe:

THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.

Could this be what he was referring to???

[cajungal]

I don't see it. I don't see anything out there to be concerned with right now. Right now all eyes are on Rita, and I don't see any imminent development of anything else right now.

[Canelaw99]

Cajun - I don't see anything imminent right now either. Here's the quote that I posted yesterday from Joe B's column regarding this:

This is from Joe B.'s free column today: "The Euro is catching the chance for Bahama development this weekend and early next week as trof de Phillippe leaves its tail behind to sit. A major African wave in the central tropical Atlantic should be coming across. Analogs to September 1985 are being studied now for a week to two weeks down the road (Henri, home brewed, then Gloria, couplet)." Link: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... ree_column

We in S. FL just have to stay alert because if this were to come true, we don't have a lot of time when things stir up in the Bahamas.

[x-y-no]

Interesting....this is from the 11am discussion re: Phillipe:

THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.

Could this be what he was referring to???

Hmmm ... must be the 12Z runs, which I haven't seen, because the earlier runs pick Phillipe up.

Anyway, even if the connection is missed this time, I don't see Phillipe getting into the Bahamas. In fact, I don't see what JB is talking about at all, at least not in the next five or six days.

[skysummit]

Interesting....this is from the 11am discussion re: Phillipe:

THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.

Could this be what he was referring to???

Hmmm ... must be the 12Z runs, which I haven't seen, because the earlier runs pick Phillipe up.

Anyway, even if the connection is missed this time, I don't see Phillipe getting into the Bahamas. In fact, I don't see what JB is talking about at all, at least not in the next five or six days.

He doesn't "see" anything. This is his normal play with words....anyone can do it. If he's wrong, you either won't hear anything about it, or he'll say the models were wrong. If he's right, he'll say he forecasted this before anyone else and we'll get another big "I told you so" and he'll make himself a hero.

[vacanechaser]

Interesting....this is from the 11am discussion re: Phillipe:

THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.

Could this be what he was referring to???

Hmmm ... must be the 12Z runs, which I haven't seen, because the earlier runs pick Phillipe up.

Anyway, even if the connection is missed this time, I don't see Phillipe getting into the Bahamas. In fact, I don't see what JB is talking about at all, at least not in the next five or six days.

He is seeing something on the Euro that might suggest it.. Saw the video a second ago, and there is a peice of the trough that just came through that will get left behind and possible development along it just like, Ophelia and Nate..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Canelaw99]

Does anyone have a link to the Euro? I know I've seen them around in various posts, but figured since that's the one he specifically mentions as the one catching the chance, it would be good to have a link to it here

[x-y-no]

Does anyone have a link to the Euro? I know I've seen them around in various posts, but figured since that's the one he specifically mentions as the one catching the chance, it would be good to have a link to it here

I use the Plymouth State site:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

takes some picking and choosing of parameters, and it's kind of slow to update with the new runs (the 12Z ECMWF is usually there by about 5pm eastern time or so) but it's a neat tool, and much more data than the official euro site offers.

Anyway, the 0z run of the euro does have a weak low in the southern Bahamas by days 6 & 7, but nothing to write home about yet.

[Stephanie]

Shoot me now

I hear you!!

[artist]

I believe this is the Euro here -
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 05070500!/

[hicksta]

I accutaly agree with joe b track