Corpus Christi is at more risk than Galveston now

[logybogy]

Follow the trends... Model runs have been shifting south consistently for the past 24 hours. And didn't Derek Ortt predict a direct hit on Corpus yesterday?

[hicksta]

Il stick with the NHC prob. The models shift n come back a little shift s back a little, the landfall with be around matagorda-freeport.

[dwg71]

hicksta, you may be right. But I hope the people of Brownsville and Corpus are being as vigilant as those of us her in Pasadena.

The heading of 260 is not a wobble its been heading that way for 5 hours.

[hicksta]

True But Hurricanes stair step

[CaptinCrunch]

Port Aransas is my guess

[skysummit]

True But Hurricanes stair step

But 5 hours is not a stairstep.

[djtil]

based on the difference between ne and sw quads id still label galveston as "more at risk"...depending on your exact definition.

[hicksta]

Port Aransas is my guess

Still to far south, itl be around matagorda-freeport

[TexasStooge]

Il stick with the NHC prob. The models shift n come back a little shift s back a little, the landfall with be around matagorda-freeport.

I'm sticking with NHC's prob as well.

[hicksta]

And also, it just Jumped WNW for all you that watch wobbles

[CaptinCrunch]

Port Aransas is my guess

Still to far south, itl be around matagorda-freeport

Everything is a guess until Rita makes that NW turn....the point of landfall depends on the timing of the turn.

[HouTXmetro]

And also, it just Jumped WNW for all you that watch wobbles

She sure did.

[skysummit]

Her current position is still south of all the models at this point.

[hicksta]

Her current position is still south of all the models at this point.

You need to realize its not the short term movement, its the long term.

[Rouster]

Please people don't be fooled. Models are going to jump around a little (50-100 miles either way) on different runs. The direction of the storm is still pretty much on line with a due W track at this point. The only thing that will change is just when and where it makes a N turn, if it indeed does.
As it's always said, if your in the cone be prepared.
If you don't know what a Cat 5 can do, simply go look at some pictures of Slidell and the Ms Gulf Coast.
At this point I wouldn't assume anything. Prepare for the worst and Pray for the best.

Right now I would say C to SE LA is in good shape. Anything from SW LA to Mex needs to watch closely. Sometimes things change quickly.

[dwg71]

a 5 hour W -WSW movement is long term. This will greatly effect track, imo. The ridge is ruling. The HP isnt moving. That is an equation for a more southerly track than forecast.

[hicksta]

a 5 hour W -WSW movement is long term. This will greatly effect track, imo. The ridge is ruling. The HP isnt moving. That is an equation for a more southerly track than forecast.

Um, if the ridge is building that wouldnt of allowed her to move WNW for the past hour. If it was buildiing we would see WSW which we are not seeing at the momment. The wsw we saw was temporary. Remeber Overall movement will equal west.

[gboudx]

When was the HP forecasted to begin the move Eastward? And has it been doing anything unexpected like oozing southward, etc?

[skysummit]

Her current position is still south of all the models at this point.

You need to realize its not the short term movement, its the long term.

Believe me, I realize exactly what's going on. That still does not change the fact that her current position is south of where the models have her at right now. I'm not saying that it will continue though. I did see her jog back to the WNW.

[jopatura]

What worries me is that the trend for the larger storms is to curve more NE as it nears land. Even a 30-50 mile shift NE would be disastrous for Galveston/Houston. So if I was in Corpus, I'd be watching carefully, but I wouldn't be as worried.