Rita Recon Reports

[MiamiensisWx]

What's the record? So far we have a Tropical Storm yesterday morning to possibly a Cat 5 at any time!

Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 was the record (I think, but I'm not positive). It dropped 70 MILLIBARS in JUST 24 HOURS!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

137 knots/157.55 mph flight level=126.04 mph surface out of the Eastern Quad. I would say stronger over northern.

[JamesFromMaine2]

078
SXXX50 KNHC 211608
AF300 1418A RITA HDOB 06 KNHC
1557 3132N 08625W 05476 0244 015 021 051 455 022 05807 0000000000
1557. 3130N 08626W 05373 0251 017 022 045 455 023 05710 0000000000
1558 3127N 08627W 05184 0262 023 022 033 429 023 05533 0000000000
1558. 3125N 08628W 04997 0242 027 021 023 373 022 05324 0000000000
1559 3123N 08629W 04813 0226 034 020 009 351 020 05123 0000000000
1559. 3120N 08630W 04628 0217 036 018 004 365 019 04930 0000000000
1600 3118N 08630W 04448 0150 050 015 018 365 016 04682 0000000000
1600. 3116N 08630W 04268 0158 056 013 034 363 013 04505 0000000000
1601 3114N 08630W 04097 0194 065 009 046 361 012 04339 0000000000
1601. 3111N 08631W 03915 0188 034 005 038 323 005 04150 0000000000
1602 3109N 08631W 03731 0207 078 005 038 127 008 03985 0000000000
1602. 3107N 08631W 03559 0201 086 012 042 077 012 03807 0000000000
1603 3105N 08631W 03509 0205 080 012 046 065 012 03761 0000000000
1603. 3102N 08631W 03504 0186 081 013 046 063 013 03737 0000000000
1604 3100N 08631W 03506 0181 092 014 050 073 014 03734 0000000000
1604. 3058N 08631W 03505 0194 094 013 050 085 014 03745 0000000000
1605 3056N 08631W 03506 0189 088 014 050 075 015 03742 0000000000
1605. 3054N 08632W 03505 0185 086 015 050 077 015 03736 0000000000
1606 3052N 08632W 03503 0158 085 014 052 081 014 03707 0000000000
1606. 3049N 08632W 03509 0157 083 016 050 075 016 03712 0000000000

[LAwxrgal]

Think the winds get bumped up to 150 next advisory.

[JPmia]

137kt = 157mph winds...then deduct from flight level and? (I don't know the rule on that)

[soonertwister]

I'm thinking 934 mb translates into something like 130 kts / 150 mph.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Yesterday morning they were forecasting 90 kts by 2PM today. Oops.

[cycloneye]

URNT40 KWBC 211610
NOAA3 WX18A RITA
160030 2409 08549 9991 -1630 281012 +215 +068 279014 027 002
160100 2411 08549 9980 -1663 272009 +228 +061 284010 021 002
160130 2413 08549 9997 -1689 241005 +234 +055 260009 018 001
160200 2416 08549 9995 -1711 135014 +241 +055 134017 027 002
160230 2418 08549 10001 -1710 120028 +237 +061 119038 034 002
160300 2419 08548 10001 -1679 120054 +209 +100 122059 999 999
160330 2419 08546 9985 -1648 126062 +179 +132 124063 999 999
160400 2418 08546 9998 -1679 132044 +192 +110 129053 999 999
160430 2417 08548 9993 -1702 130022 +229 +064 139024 999 999
160500 2418 08550 9990 -1714 109027 +240 +055 105032 999 999
160530 2420 08551 9990 -1703 103050 +213 +097 102059 058 004
160600 2422 08551 9988 -1608 100089 +174 +133 100105 104 008
160630 2424 08551 10028 -1406 101138 +138 +136 100152 125 015
160700 2426 08551 10001 -1097 096143 +129 +127 097148 115 028
160730 2428 08551 9993 -0912 095133 +133 +133 094137 106 026
160800 2430 08551 10001 -0752 097123 +128 +128 096126 100 014
160830 2431 08551 10016 -0626 096116 +129 +129 096116 094 018
160900 2433 08551 10018 -0520 096111 +125 +125 097112 090 008
160930 2435 08551 10029 -0427 095104 +119 +118 095106 083 007
161000 2437 08551 10022 -0360 094099 +120 +116 095101 079 008

[ColdWaterConch]

Recon plane is about to go feet wet off of Pensacola

[PhillyWX]

137kt = 157mph winds...then deduct from flight level and? (I don't know the rule on that)

137 x .9 x 1.15 = 142

The 90% rule usually applies...

[oneness]

137kt = 157mph winds...then deduct from flight level and? (I don't know the rule on that)

137 x .9 x 1.15 = 142

The 90% rule usually applies...

So DVORAK is overestimating then. It is currently reading:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 920.1mb/140.0kt

[canegrl04]

Rita is in league with Gilbert and Mitch

[Hyperstorm]

137kt = 157mph winds...then deduct from flight level and? (I don't know the rule on that)

137 x .9 x 1.15 = 142

The 90% rule usually applies...

So DVORAK is overestimating then. It is currently reading:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 920.1mb/140.0kt

That's why I said that these CI numbers usually overstimate the wind speeds and pressure. These are done by a computer with no human intervention. Try to pay attention to the human based numbers from SAB/AFWA/TAFB. Those are the ones that tend to be more precise and accurate.

[SouthernWx]

Rita is very close to cat-5 intensity......I saw 152 kts at flight level in the north eyewall on the last pass....

At a 90% ratio, that equates to 137 kt at the surface....or 155-160 mph.

I also saw the central pressure appeared to be falling.....down to 932 mb or so IMO (based on the plane altitude at 700 mb....

PW

[cycloneye]

URNT40 KWBC 211620
NOAA3 WX18A RITA
161030 2439 08551 9994 -0301 095095 +120 +120 095096 076 010
161100 2442 08551 9999 -0253 096092 +119 +119 095093 072 012
161130 2444 08551 10027 -0212 095087 +116 +116 096087 071 007
161200 2446 08551 10039 -0175 096086 +117 +112 095087 069 007
161230 2448 08550 10027 -0141 094082 +120 +107 095083 067 004
161300 2450 08550 10026 -0115 095082 +115 +101 095083 064 005
161330 2452 08550 10008 -0086 094077 +115 +110 094077 064 005
161400 2454 08550 10021 -0059 093076 +115 +113 091078 065 008
161430 2456 08550 9989 -0043 095072 +113 +113 095073 064 009
161500 2458 08550 10006 -0023 094072 +115 +115 093073 062 010
161530 2500 08550 10038 +0001 094070 +118 +111 095071 063 007
161600 2502 08550 10029 +0020 093067 +117 +112 093069 063 007
161630 2504 08550 10036 +0040 092065 +117 +108 092065 061 004
161700 2506 08550 10046 +0060 094066 +113 +112 093067 060 003
161730 2507 08549 10063 +0072 095062 +111 +110 095065 061 003
161800 2508 08547 10433 +0099 097060 +107 +104 097061 061 004
161830 2509 08546 10926 +0133 102062 +098 +096 102062 061 005
161900 2510 08544 11329 +0164 104060 +096 +086 104062 061 007
161930 2511 08542 11737 +0199 101057 +085 +085 102057 061 007
162000 2511 08541 11985 +0228 103057 +086 +071 102058 061 005

[Solaris]

152 knots?

[Solaris]

152 knots?

[Hyperstorm]

A special advisory should be issued at anytime to bump up the winds to at least 150 mph, since there will be no intermediate advisory. Satellite imagery does not lie and the storm is showing signs of being borderline Category 4/5 at this time...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

URNT40 KWBC 211610
NOAA3 WX18A RITA
160030 2409 08549 9991 -1630 281012 +215 +068 279014 027 002
160100 2411 08549 9980 -1663 272009 +228 +061 284010 021 002
160130 2413 08549 9997 -1689 241005 +234 +055 260009 018 001
160200 2416 08549 9995 -1711 135014 +241 +055 134017 027 002
160230 2418 08549 10001 -1710 120028 +237 +061 119038 034 002
160300 2419 08548 10001 -1679 120054 +209 +100 122059 999 999
160330 2419 08546 9985 -1648 126062 +179 +132 124063 999 999
160400 2418 08546 9998 -1679 132044 +192 +110 129053 999 999
160430 2417 08548 9993 -1702 130022 +229 +064 139024 999 999
160500 2418 08550 9990 -1714 109027 +240 +055 105032 999 999
160530 2420 08551 9990 -1703 103050 +213 +097 102059 058 004
160600 2422 08551 9988 -1608 100089 +174 +133 100105 104 008
160630 2424 08551 10028 -1406 101138 +138 +136 100152 125 015
160700 2426 08551 10001 -1097 096143 +129 +127 097148 115 028
160730 2428 08551 9993 -0912 095133 +133 +133 094137 106 026
160800 2430 08551 10001 -0752 097123 +128 +128 096126 100 014
160830 2431 08551 10016 -0626 096116 +129 +129 096116 094 018
160900 2433 08551 10018 -0520 096111 +125 +125 097112 090 008
160930 2435 08551 10029 -0427 095104 +119 +118 095106 083 007
161000 2437 08551 10022 -0360 094099 +120 +116 095101 079 008




152 knots...

[canegrl04]

152kts w= 172mph

[cjrciadt]

152kts w= 172mph

Equals 154.8 at the surface a 3rd Cat5 of the year insane.