Question about the Ridge - heeeeeeelp

[EmeraldCoast1]

Every .5 degree equals appx. 30 miles.

That is, one-half of one degree in heading change will change the hurricanes destination by appx. 30 miles!!!

Don't look at the line. Watch the cone.

If you have a bunch of trees around you, you don't want to be around for a cat. 4 or 5 unless you like the sound (and feeling) of trees hitting your roof.

[duris]

Are you in a flood prone area???

Yes, highly flood prone area (where you have to get out by boat), but my specific house has never had water in it in the 5 years I've been here.

But you bring up a good point...how much rain are we expecting with Rita anyway? I've been more concerned with winds.

I know New Orleans was different, but don't rely on the "my house hasn't flooded in x years" logic. I know you probably aren't, but I say this because my neighbor in New Orleans said his house had been in the family eighty years and never flooded. Both our first floors are done for now. Granted, but for the breach in the canal it wouldn't have flooded most likely, but still.

[EmeraldCoast1]

Also...

It is noteworthy to remeber how Katrina and other big canes have taken last minute jogs on their final approaches to land. These major canes DO interact with the land and with one approaching your coastline (poleward oriented) a small jog on final approach could easily slide the eye 60-80 miles north (or south). Don't forget that is what happened with a little storm named Charley last year.

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe this will help. Click on link and then into motion. Notice the green area over west Tx. spinning clockwise, this is the high. Watch as the GFS forecasts it to lift NE then eastward allowing Rita to come in on the backside of the high.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


Then go to a VW loop and watch the high as it is spinning still over west TX.

[HurricaneQueen]

Gale:

Remember just a few weeks ago and what you went through (from a distance) trying to find members, worrying about everyone, etc? Don't do that to us. What's the big deal if you pack up the family car and take off for a fun weekend somewhere out of harm's way? Take a couple of personal days, if necessary and beat the rush. You will arrive at your destination early and rested and can watch the storm from a distance. You might even have internet access from your hotel and you can check in here!!!! Watching each wobble and changing your mind with each will drive you nuts. Just make up your mind to take your most valuable possessions and family and get the heck outta Dodge (or Beaumont, in ths case). We're all here cheering for you. Now that we know Duckie is going to be safe we'd like to have the same reassurances from you!!!

Lynn

[Dean4Storms]

The longer it takes the high to lift out the further south the landfall.

[Canelaw99]

Southern, I just heard Gov. Perry on CNN say "If you're on the coast between Beaumont and Corpus Christi, this is the time to get out".

[southerngale]

I heard that too Canelaw. Now I'm reading the other thread about the high and if it's not moving, the track will shift south.

I appreciate all the sentiments although this wasn't supposed to be a "should I stay or should I go?" thread. I wanted more info about the ridge to help me decide. Man, this just sux. Weren't we just tracking that monster, Katrina?

[Canelaw99]

Yep, southern, we sure were. I feel for ya...I definitely wouldn't want to be in your position right now. I saw on a map where Beaumont is and I see your dilemma. Bad thing for you would be for it to track south of you because that would put you on the nasty side of the storm. Seems like most on the board are saying the ridge is acting as forecast, and in all honesty, I would trust the NHC 3 days out - they're pretty good with that forecast. Good luck and keep us updated

[Canelaw99]

Bumping this out of curiosity.....Does anyone know whether southern evacuated or not???