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chadtm80
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dwg71 wrote:deltadog03 wrote:hicksta, the 12z GFDL has shifted a little east..about 35 miles or so...
The 6Z run (stamped 1128z) the gfdl was just a hair to the east of the BAMD model. Now its right on it. It moved West at landfall.
agree it is just a touch left of what it was before not a whole lot of change maybe 15 to 20 miles west.
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deltadog03
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mvtrucking
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Rouster wrote:Wobble here, wobble there.
Models are as much wobble watchers as most of us. I would say at this point Rita is still pretty much due W (outside of a wobble S, then a wobble back N) therefore she is pretty much on course at this time.
If I'm right, the NHC says she should start going just a little more WNW this evening. That's when the answer to the puzzle will start coming into play. If she starts heading a little more NW then WNW tonight, bad for SW LA and E TX. If she stays due W tonight, bad for S and C Tx.
I have to agree Rouster. It should be as simple as that.
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hicksta
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mvtrucking wrote:Rouster wrote:Wobble here, wobble there.
Models are as much wobble watchers as most of us. I would say at this point Rita is still pretty much due W (outside of a wobble S, then a wobble back N) therefore she is pretty much on course at this time.
If I'm right, the NHC says she should start going just a little more WNW this evening. That's when the answer to the puzzle will start coming into play. If she starts heading a little more NW then WNW tonight, bad for SW LA and E TX. If she stays due W tonight, bad for S and C Tx.
I have to agree Rouster. It should be as simple as that.
Very true but since 3 hours ago shes been going around wnw-nw. Kinda raises an eyebrowl when the models dont pick up on it
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rockyman wrote:dixiebreeze wrote:rockyman wrote:This is not a chat room...please place questions like this in the appropriate thread (there is a thread of Rita models).
??
Two question marks coming from someone notorious for opening spurious threads is not a big shocker!! (I'll see your 2 question marks and raise you 2 exclamation points!!)
SNAP! ...but classic!
regarding the wobbles...I really don't think anything other than due west is gonna be sustained. not with that absolute beast of a ridge in place.
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hicksta
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leonardo wrote:rockyman wrote:dixiebreeze wrote:rockyman wrote:This is not a chat room...please place questions like this in the appropriate thread (there is a thread of Rita models).
??
Two question marks coming from someone notorious for opening spurious threads is not a big shocker!! (I'll see your 2 question marks and raise you 2 exclamation points!!)
SNAP! ...but classic!
regarding the wobbles...I really don't think anything other than due west is gonna be sustained. not with that absolute beast of a ridge in place.
Guess i got very bad eyeballs
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yes dj
But a 3 hour wobble.
right on time it appears...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
the models and official track expect the wnw bobbles/turn to begin about now.
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