Possible Major Flood Event in North Texas

celestar · #1 Postby **celestar** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:55 pm

new 12z European model (ecmwf) agreeing with GFS in
stalling Rita over North Texas. This could mean tremendous rainfall
in County Warning Area...

Local ABC Met also just mentioned this. Track takes the Rita into OK, then backtracks her into N. Texas early next week.

Could lead to a serious flooding situation.....

djtil · #2 Postby **djtil** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:00 pm

i dont see a stall in this situation.....look for a fairly rapid exit......not sure why a couple models are leaving her behind but i dont put much faith in that solution....just makes no sense.

canegrl04 · #3 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:01 pm

I am very concerned about this.I live 48 miles east of downtown Dallas

I live in a double wide mobile home.May go to neighbors house to ride out Rita.They have a brick house.

#4 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:06 pm

Local NWS mentions the possibility but seems to be leaning to an exit.

.UPDATE...
1025 AM CDT

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND OTHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE OUT.

STILL FEEL WESTERLIES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO EJECT RITA INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...NEW 12Z ECMWF AGREEING WITH GFS IN
STALLING RITA OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS COULD MEAN TREMENDOUS RAINFALL
IN CWA...PARTICULARLY EAST TEXAS. WILL KEEP CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO ASSESS FURTHER FOR
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 25

djtil · #5 Postby **djtil** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:07 pm

i live 25 miles north of downtown dallas.....the models keep inching her west...which would limit the excitement for both of us.

outside of tornado threat...not sure how that will set up.....you should be ok from a wind threat....although it will be breezy.

#6 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:11 pm

I just read that from FWD...interesting...well, the 12z euro shifted right a little bit...looks to be just south of freeport...its really hard to see on the free public map...

celestar · #7 Postby **celestar** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:23 pm

EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CUTTING
OFF LOW ALONG WEST COAST. THIS WOULD CONFINE WESTERLIES TO
NORTHERN STATES...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF RITA ESCAPE ROUTE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...REMNANTS OF RITA MAY
LINGER IN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. PWATS WOULD REMAIN
EXTRAORDINARY...AND TREMENDOUS STORM TOTALS COULD RESULT. TPC
FORECAST HOWEVER FAVORS EJECTING RITA NORTH QUICKLY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY NOW...BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

Possible Major Flood Event in North Texas

Possible Major Flood Event in North Texas

DFW NWS - Rita might still become trapped....

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