High is beginning to Move East as Forecasted

[hicksta]

Very true anything can happen. By the way shes still chugging wnw

[Nimbus]

My concern is that the ridge to the west of Rita may bridge with the anticyclone she is building over herself.

The only thing keeping Rita from recurving poleward on her own is the ridge flow from the northeast to the southwest. If the ridge bridges over you lose the southwest flow. Earlier NHC said the large anticyclone dome was already factored into the model runs so maybe there will not be any major track changes here on in.

She is such a monster storm that the surge is going to be a nightmare.

edit to add image.

[GulfHills]

Could someone please explain how the high and low pressure effects the hurricane? I can't understand anything about this high and what it is doing.

[mvtrucking]

My concern is that the ridge to the west of Rita may bridge with the anticyclone she is building over herself.

The only thing keeping Rita from recurving poleward on her own is the ridge flow from the northeast to the southwest. If the ridge bridges over you lose the southeast flow. Earlier NHC said the large anticyclone dome was already factored into the model runs so maybe there will not be any major track changes here on in.

She is such a monster storm that the surge is going to be a nightmare.

edit to add image.

Question Nimbus. Someone on the last page mentioned pressures in Texas
had been falling since noon.(Not sure how to verify that?) If this is the case what pressures would that be? Surface, upper atmosphere? What would the significance of this be? Thanks in advance.

MV

[alicia-w]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/hourly.html

[alicia-w]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/hourly.html

[alicia-w]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/hourly.html

[alicia-w]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/hourly.html

[alicia-w]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/hourly.html

[alicia-w]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/hourly.html

[SamSagnella]

Those links are for surface pressures, whereas the strengthening Hurricane Rita is deep enough to be steered by the flow way up in the atmosphere (H5 - H2) so don't use those obs in making any decisions.

[w33t]

This far out, or actually slightly less far out (In Time) Katrina was supposed to go into the Big Bend of FLA. Still many things could change, even though the NHC is very firm on their thinking at this time and they do know exactly what they are doing.

The only problem is that while they know what they're doing, only the hurricane really knows what it's going to do.

[mvtrucking]

Maybe bad eyes is the reason, but Rita has started a bit NW. Over the last couple of hours, so if its a wobble its a good one.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[skysummit]

Yea, if that's a wobble...it's definately a good one.

[Hurrilurker]

If it's moving around the periphery of a ridge, she could be "stairstepping" rather than "wobbling". In other words, showing directional changes in somewhat larger increments while still maintaining an overall, longterm direction. I remember seeing this before. But I do agree that over the last 4-5 sat frames, she sure does appear to be curving steadily more northward.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures over Texas will drop as the storm approaches naturally. Sometimes you can get a vague idea about where a weak storm is headed from looking at surface pressures but with a storm this intense it is better to use the upper level winds for steering.

Definately bucking the ridge a little, they are not looking for any major track change that I know of.

[drezee]

500mb heights:

24 hours ago


12 hours ago: