Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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alicia-w
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#381 Postby alicia-w » Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:57 pm

Image

incredible eye
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gatorcane
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#382 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:01 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
Image
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#383 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:01 pm

Rita parlays Gulf Stream heat to loop current.

Present behavior is explosive intensification.

Perfect outflow, SST's, and prime conditions have lead to explosive intensification like Andrew west under ridge.

West track is exotic for late September.

This is Labor Day but 300 miles further west. Those who scoffed at this in the Keys should be aware it is just luck that kept this from happening prior to Keys.

900's bottom-out likely now.

This is good because it increases the chances that storm won't be able to hold top end all the way in to Texas.

High obviously in control. New Orleans in the clear.


Classic GOM category 5...
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#384 Postby artist » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:03 pm

hicksta - when I measure it it appears to me it is beginning an ever so slight n of west movement as well- not just the last couple of frames but several.
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#385 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:04 pm

:eek: Holy Crap! :eek:
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#386 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:13 pm

Here is the latest ECMWF 72 hour map (7AM CDT SAT), which is almost identical to the 96 hour map from the run from 24 hours ago that I posted
(still suggests heading to ~75 miles SW of Galveston):

Image
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#387 Postby THead » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:14 pm

Anyone know the NRL mirror site, I have it in my favs at home, but not where I am now. Thanks
:wink:
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#388 Postby hicksta » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:15 pm

Map seems a lil north of matagorda..
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#389 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:15 pm

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

Almost a 5.
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#390 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:16 pm

920mb and still dropping!!!!!!!!
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#391 Postby hicksta » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:17 pm

artist wrote:hicksta - when I measure it it appears to me it is beginning an ever so slight n of west movement as well- not just the last couple of frames but several.


Same here, iv been noticn a wnw since 11 on this radar
Image
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alicia-w
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#392 Postby alicia-w » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:25 pm

THead wrote:Anyone know the NRL mirror site, I have it in my favs at home, but not where I am now. Thanks
:wink:


http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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#393 Postby djtil » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:35 pm

latest SHIPS goes from 149mph at 0hour to 163mph at 24hour.....still sees 10kts of potential strengthening before gradually coming back to 150mph at 48hour due to lower SSTs.......

how low will she go.
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#394 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:40 pm

djtil wrote:latest SHIPS goes from 149mph at 0hour to 163mph at 24hour.....still sees 10kts of potential strengthening before gradually coming back to 150mph at 48hour due to lower SSTs.......

how low will she go.



899 and 170MPH before the EWRC happens IMO
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#395 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:47 pm

:eek: 150 mph Holy Crap! :eek:
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#396 Postby mvtrucking » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:55 pm

hicksta wrote:
artist wrote:hicksta - when I measure it it appears to me it is beginning an ever so slight n of west movement as well- not just the last couple of frames but several.


Same here, iv been noticn a wnw since 11 on this radar
Image


Hicksta,
I may be blind but, looking at this map you posted she looks to be starting a very slight nw motion for the last couple of hours.
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#397 Postby krysof » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:04 pm

I was not expecting this at all. It was already a 120 mph category 3 this morning, and now it's almost a Cat 5 with 920 pressure!!!! :eek:
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#398 Postby LAStorm01 » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:07 pm

Is she stairstepping NW?
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#399 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:09 pm

artist wrote:hicksta - when I measure it it appears to me it is beginning an ever so slight n of west movement as well- not just the last couple of frames but several.


I've noticed it... it's VERY slight right now.
Last edited by Brent on Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#400 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 21, 2005 2:10 pm

Comparison.....Katrina at 145mph on left and Rita at 150mph on right.

Image Image
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