joe b said new development in bahamas soon?

[WeatherEmperor]

well lets just say for arguments sake that something does try to form near the Bahamas in around 5-6 days or so. That would make it the end of September. Wouldnt anything that would form in that region just recurve northward and not cross FL considering the time of year?

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

well lets just say for arguments sake that something does try to form near the Bahamas in around 5-6 days or so. That would make it the end of September. Wouldnt anything that would form in that region just recurve northward and not cross FL considering the time of year?

No

[WeatherEmperor]

well lets just say for arguments sake that something does try to form near the Bahamas in around 5-6 days or so. That would make it the end of September. Wouldnt anything that would form in that region just recurve northward and not cross FL considering the time of year?

No

well remember how I told you that if you end up being correct about both Katrina and Rita I would serve you as master? Well Ill go with you.

<RICKY>

[artist]

I truly think that climatology no longer has a lot of say this year. There have been so many unprecedented firsts this year - anything could happen. JMHO

[artist]

one other thing - the latest advisory on Philippe is suggesting he just might head west now.

[RU4REAL]

Artist!...

You are kidding......right

[MortisFL]

Artist!...

You are kidding......right

Taken from 11:00am NHC Discussion on Philippe:

The GFS...NOGAPS...and ECMWF now suggest that the cyclone
may not get picked up by a large extratropical cyclone over the
North Atlantic. However...the UKMET and GFDL continue to forecast a
northeastward acceleration and eventual absorption. The official
forecast will back off on absorption and once again provide a 5 day
forecast point. If model trends continue in that solution...the 5
day forecast Point May have to be adjusted westward in subsequent
forecasts.

[skufful]

Artist!...

You are kidding......right

Taken from 11:00am NHC Discussion on Philippe:

The GFS...NOGAPS...and ECMWF now suggest that the cyclone
may not get picked up by a large extratropical cyclone over the
North Atlantic. However...the UKMET and GFDL continue to forecast a
northeastward acceleration and eventual absorption. The official
forecast will back off on absorption and once again provide a 5 day
forecast point. If model trends continue in that solution...the 5
day forecast Point May have to be adjusted westward in subsequent
forecasts.

Westward does not mean WEST!!!!!!!!

[artist]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE FORECAST REASONING
THROUGH 72 HOURS REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL BACK OFF ON ABSORPTION AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A 5 DAY
FORECAST POINT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THAT SOLUTION...THE 5
DAY FORECAST POINT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.


here is the entire paragraph - but you are right - maybe I am just jumpy and that is not the implication.

[MortisFL]

Artist!...

You are kidding......right

Taken from 11:00am NHC Discussion on Philippe:

The GFS...NOGAPS...and ECMWF now suggest that the cyclone
may not get picked up by a large extratropical cyclone over the
North Atlantic. However...the UKMET and GFDL continue to forecast a
northeastward acceleration and eventual absorption. The official
forecast will back off on absorption and once again provide a 5 day
forecast point. If model trends continue in that solution...the 5
day forecast Point May have to be adjusted westward in subsequent
forecasts.

Westward does not mean WEST!!!!!!!!

Westward means East...everybody knows that.

[skufful]

Artist!...

You are kidding......right

Taken from 11:00am NHC Discussion on Philippe:

The GFS...NOGAPS...and ECMWF now suggest that the cyclone
may not get picked up by a large extratropical cyclone over the
North Atlantic. However...the UKMET and GFDL continue to forecast a
northeastward acceleration and eventual absorption. The official
forecast will back off on absorption and once again provide a 5 day
forecast point. If model trends continue in that solution...the 5
day forecast Point May have to be adjusted westward in subsequent
forecasts.

Westward does not mean WEST!!!!!!!!

Westward means East...everybody knows that.

You must have gotten an A in geography.

[artist]

implications if it doesn't get picked up by the trough?

[Frank2]

I know everyone is concerned about Rita at this time, but, did want to update this thread by mentioning that this afternoon's Miami and San Juan NWS forecast discussions do not mention anything about AccuWeather's concerns, and, since the local NWS forecasters are usually very vigilant when it comes to picking up on or mentioning anything in the long term that might be an issue to our local area (both offices mentioned Katrina and Rita in their earliest stages), apparently there is nothing of signficance in the extended forecast models at this time for them to believe worth mentioning.

Frank

[artist]

thanks Frank!

[Frank2]

You're welcome

[jrod]

Here is another scenerio, Phillipe and the ULL merge as one and become one very large 'sub' tropical system and head towards Florida. This is sort of happening already with convection almost wrapping all the way around the ULL. The LLC of Phillipe however is moving NNE now and I think that may dissapate soon.

[arkess7]

please no more.....its time for mother nature to take a nap

[Steve H.]

You hit it on the head jrod, though that ULL is getting down to the surface. Philippe seems to be struggling now, but its still deep and moving NE. The 12z NAM showed the Westernmost feature down to 1004mb moving west, but getting caught by the 1008 mb feature (remnants of Philippe) then getting wrapped around the remnants of Philippe and out to sea. That doesn't make sense at all; the stronger feature would win out IMO. And yes, the Melbourne AFD is starting to take this possibility seriously. Something will come west and develop near the Bahamas this weekend, with building high pressure to the north.

[CHRISTY]

I FIRST HEARD ABOUT THIS HAPPENING ON JOE B'S WEBSITE( ACCUWEATHER) ANYHOW HE SAID IT WOULD HEAD TOWARDS FLORIDA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK?? IF ANYBODY HAS MORE INFORMATION ON THIS PLEASE POST IT! THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF HAPPENING! OPINIONS PLEASE POST!!!!

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

I FIRST HEARD ABOUT THIS HAPPENING ON JOE B'S WEBSITE( ACCUWEATHER) ANYHOW HE SAID IT WOULD HEAD TOWARDS FLORIDA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK?? IF ANYBODY HAS MORE INFORMATION ON THIS PLEASE POST IT! THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF HAPPENING! OPINIONS PLEASE POST!!!!

Well that sucks! Watch it be a horrible Hurrican again.