Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[canegrl04]

I predict Rita will go sub 900 overnight

[krysof]

[krysof]

so what happened while I was gone from 7-3pm

[Brent]

so what happened while I was gone from 7-3pm

Now 150 mph, 920 mb.

[curtadams]

Computerized satellite analysis says intensification stopped around dawn and Rita is currently stable as a low Cat 5. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt3.html Physical expansion is still continuing - satellite IR temps have remained stable at the Cuba coast even as she swirls away.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[alicia-w]

Winds now 165, pressure 908.

[alicia-w]

Winds now 165, pressure 908.

[Windy]

Man, at first I read that as "Cat 5,165", and though "Wow! Now THAT is deepening!"

[canegrl04]

Hold on to your hats folks.Looks like Rita could exceed Katrina's max 175mph

[PTrackerLA]

WOW two cat 5's in the gulf only a few weeks apart! Let's just hope that she's peaking now and will gradually weaken until landfall .

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z WED SEP 21 2005

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 86.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 175SE 150SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 86.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 86.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REACHES 165 MPH WINDS...BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2005 SEASON...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[TexasStooge]

I'm just..........speechless.

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 24.4N 86.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W 145 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W 145 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W 135 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND

[Brent]

The track is a little farther east...

[dwg71]

The track is a little farther east...

The track is identical, it has to do with point to point. its supposed to recurve not go to point and then make a turn.

Matagorda Bay it still is...Cat 4 possibly Cat3 according to discussion

[Stratosphere747]

Expect damage equaling Katrina in Matagorda and Brazoria counties if this track verifies.

The surge is already built...

This possibly can't be happening..

[Brent]

I do believe where the line crosses the coast IS farther east than the 11am advisory...



If I remember correctly, at 11 it was over Matagorda Bay... now it's east