http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita01.jpg
Any comments and feedback appreciated. It's my first time trying anything like this, and it'll be fun to see how well I do.
Rita Forecasts: #9 (11am Wed): Sabine Pass, TX, 125kt
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Rita Forecasts: #9 (11am Wed): Sabine Pass, TX, 125kt
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita01.jpg
Any comments and feedback appreciated. It's my first time trying anything like this, and it'll be fun to see how well I do.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita01.jpg
Any comments and feedback appreciated. It's my first time trying anything like this, and it'll be fun to see how well I do.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:00 am, edited 9 times in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita02.jpg
Forecast #2 is essentially the same as #1: a little more southerly through 72 hours, then a little more northerly after 72 hours, ending up with pretty much the same projected landfall location. Good news for the Keys, though, as I project the path to go south of Key West by about 40-45 miles as opposed with 20 miles on the 5pm advisory. The intensity forecast is essentially the same as well.
The next forecast will hopefully be made at 11am Eastern on Tuesday (but that depends on when I wake up
).
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita02.jpg
Forecast #2 is essentially the same as #1: a little more southerly through 72 hours, then a little more northerly after 72 hours, ending up with pretty much the same projected landfall location. Good news for the Keys, though, as I project the path to go south of Key West by about 40-45 miles as opposed with 20 miles on the 5pm advisory. The intensity forecast is essentially the same as well.
The next forecast will hopefully be made at 11am Eastern on Tuesday (but that depends on when I wake up
).
Last edited by mtm4319 on Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita03.jpg
No significant changes to the track forecast; forecast landfall is only slightly south of the previous forecast. Peak intensity is now 105 kt, down from 110 kt, but landfall intensity remains the same at 105 kt.
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 23.8 N and 78.5 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 65 knots. I was off 64 statute miles in position, but only 20 statute miles off in track. My intensity estimate was off by 5 knots; surprisingly, I was actually low on intensity instead of high.
The next forecast is scheduled for 8pm EDT.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita03.jpg
No significant changes to the track forecast; forecast landfall is only slightly south of the previous forecast. Peak intensity is now 105 kt, down from 110 kt, but landfall intensity remains the same at 105 kt.
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 23.8 N and 78.5 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 65 knots. I was off 64 statute miles in position, but only 20 statute miles off in track. My intensity estimate was off by 5 knots; surprisingly, I was actually low on intensity instead of high.
The next forecast is scheduled for 8pm EDT.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita04.jpg
The track forecast is a bit farther south of the previous forecast, but not significantly. The intensity forecast is adjusted upward, but I still expect a slight weakening prior to landfall. Peak intensity is now 115 kt, and forecast landfall intensity is 110 kt.
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24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.1 N and 80.5 W in 24 hours, with an intensity of 80 knots. I was off 107 statute miles in position, but only 21 statute miles off in track. My intensity estimate was low by 5 knots.
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.0 N and 82.1 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 70 knots. I was off just 6 statute miles in position, and less than 1 statute mile off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by 15 knots.
The next forecast is scheduled for 11pm EDT.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita04.jpg
The track forecast is a bit farther south of the previous forecast, but not significantly. The intensity forecast is adjusted upward, but I still expect a slight weakening prior to landfall. Peak intensity is now 115 kt, and forecast landfall intensity is 110 kt.
--------------
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.1 N and 80.5 W in 24 hours, with an intensity of 80 knots. I was off 107 statute miles in position, but only 21 statute miles off in track. My intensity estimate was low by 5 knots.
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.0 N and 82.1 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 70 knots. I was off just 6 statute miles in position, and less than 1 statute mile off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by 15 knots.
The next forecast is scheduled for 11pm EDT.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gboudx wrote:You've got it coming up to pay us a visit in DFW. What's the consensus on this happening? I don't wish the storm on anyone. But if that track verifies, we could get some much needed rain up here.
It looks like a lot of the 18Z models have it coming up near the Dallas area, possibly a bit farther east. It will depend on the direction it's traveling as it goes through Texas, the closer to due north (or east of north), the less chance of a significant rainfall in the Dallas area, but there's still a good chance.
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Just kidding...keep safe.The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita05.jpg
No major changes in either track or landfall location. Intensity forecast has been bumped slightly; forecast landfall intensity is now 115 knots in 84 hours.
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.0 N and 82.5 W in 24 hours, with an intensity of 85 knots. I was off 45 statute miles in position, but less than 1 statute mile off in track. I forecasted Rita to cross 83.2 W at approximately 24.09 N. My intensity estimate was low by 10 knots.
The next forecast is scheduled for... sometime tomorrow.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita05.jpg
No major changes in either track or landfall location. Intensity forecast has been bumped slightly; forecast landfall intensity is now 115 knots in 84 hours.
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.0 N and 82.5 W in 24 hours, with an intensity of 85 knots. I was off 45 statute miles in position, but less than 1 statute mile off in track. I forecasted Rita to cross 83.2 W at approximately 24.09 N. My intensity estimate was low by 10 knots.
The next forecast is scheduled for... sometime tomorrow.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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-
LAwxrgal
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Unfortunately...this forecast seems very reasonable and right on line with most of the model guidance and the NHC. God bless Texas. 
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita06.jpg
Still no significant changes to track or landfall location. After traveling south of the points I made for my forecast 36 hours ago, the actual track is heading back toward that line. I remain faithful on track/landfall (near Matagorda, TX), but I keep edging upward in intensity. I now have a peak of intensity of 130 kt (an increase of 10 knots since my last forecast), but don't feel confident enough yet in increasing forecasted landfall intensity by the same amount. Therefore the projected landfall intensity is 120 kt, still a category 4.
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.3 N and 84.6 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 95 knots. I was exactly right in both position and track! What can I say? Beginner's luck, I guess. However, my intensity estimate was low by 10 knots.
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.2 N and 84.5 W in 24 hours, with an intensity of 80 knots. I was off just 9 statute miles in position, and 6 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by a whopping 25 knots.
36 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.4 N and 83.0 W in 36 hours, with an intensity of 80 knots. I was off 101 statute miles in position, but only 12 statute miles off in track. Also, my intensity estimate was low by 15 knots.
The next forecast is scheduled for 5pm EDT today.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v652/anotherdaybegins/rita/rita06.jpg
Still no significant changes to track or landfall location. After traveling south of the points I made for my forecast 36 hours ago, the actual track is heading back toward that line. I remain faithful on track/landfall (near Matagorda, TX), but I keep edging upward in intensity. I now have a peak of intensity of 130 kt (an increase of 10 knots since my last forecast), but don't feel confident enough yet in increasing forecasted landfall intensity by the same amount. Therefore the projected landfall intensity is 120 kt, still a category 4.
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.3 N and 84.6 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 95 knots. I was exactly right in both position and track! What can I say? Beginner's luck, I guess. However, my intensity estimate was low by 10 knots.
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.2 N and 84.5 W in 24 hours, with an intensity of 80 knots. I was off just 9 statute miles in position, and 6 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by a whopping 25 knots.
36 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.4 N and 83.0 W in 36 hours, with an intensity of 80 knots. I was off 101 statute miles in position, but only 12 statute miles off in track. Also, my intensity estimate was low by 15 knots.
The next forecast is scheduled for 5pm EDT today.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://tinypic.com/dwt7w2.jpg
The landfall location has been moved 15-20 miles northeast of the previous forecast, but that is only circumstantial - a result of attempting to forecast positions on whole or half degrees at 72 hours and beyond. The total range of projected landfall locations from advisory 1 to advisory 7 is 38 miles. Long story short: I'm sticking with my Matagorda projection for now.
Intensity forecast takes it to a 150-knot peak in 12 hours, followed by slow weakening thereafter. Landfall is still projected at category-4 intensity, and at a 10-knot increase from my previous forecast.
============================================
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.6 N and 87.0 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 115 knots. I was off just 19 statute miles in position, and 12 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by a whopping 30 knots.
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.5 N and 87.0 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 105 knots. I was off just 14 statute miles in position, and 6 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by a ridiculous 40 knots.
36 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.5 N and 86.5 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 90 knots. I was off just 20 statute miles in position, and 10 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by an astronomical 55 knots.
48 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.5 N and 85.5 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 100 knots. I was off 82 statute miles in position, but only 14 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by an astounding 45 knots.
==============================================
The next forecast is scheduled for 10pm CDT.
http://tinypic.com/dwt7w2.jpg
The landfall location has been moved 15-20 miles northeast of the previous forecast, but that is only circumstantial - a result of attempting to forecast positions on whole or half degrees at 72 hours and beyond. The total range of projected landfall locations from advisory 1 to advisory 7 is 38 miles. Long story short: I'm sticking with my Matagorda projection for now.
Intensity forecast takes it to a 150-knot peak in 12 hours, followed by slow weakening thereafter. Landfall is still projected at category-4 intensity, and at a 10-knot increase from my previous forecast.
============================================
12 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.6 N and 87.0 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 115 knots. I was off just 19 statute miles in position, and 12 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by a whopping 30 knots.
24 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.5 N and 87.0 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 105 knots. I was off just 14 statute miles in position, and 6 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by a ridiculous 40 knots.
36 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.5 N and 86.5 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 90 knots. I was off just 20 statute miles in position, and 10 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by an astronomical 55 knots.
48 hours ago, I predicted the center of Rita to be at 24.5 N and 85.5 W in 12 hours, with an intensity of 100 knots. I was off 82 statute miles in position, but only 14 statute miles off in track. However, my intensity estimate was low by an astounding 45 knots.
==============================================
The next forecast is scheduled for 10pm CDT.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://tinypic.com/dwxn43.jpg
I'm going just slightly more conservative on track (a bit farther away from Houston than the NHC's forecast, but still a touch farther east than my 5pm advisory) and intensity (still taking it down to 130 knots at landfall, but I debated between 130 and 135 knots) than I could at this point.
I'm kind of tired right now (very little sleep) so I'll keep it at that.
The next advisory is scheduled for 11am EDT tomorrow.
http://tinypic.com/dwxn43.jpg
I'm going just slightly more conservative on track (a bit farther away from Houston than the NHC's forecast, but still a touch farther east than my 5pm advisory) and intensity (still taking it down to 130 knots at landfall, but I debated between 130 and 135 knots) than I could at this point.
I'm kind of tired right now (very little sleep) so I'll keep it at that.
The next advisory is scheduled for 11am EDT tomorrow.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Overnight, my first 8 forecasts were rendered basically worthless. A significant northward shift has occurred, and I have shifted projected landfall location accordingly to near the TX/LA state line.
A significant weakening trend (16 millibars in less than 12 hours) has also occurred. This appears to be the result of both the sheer difficulty of maintaining a sub-900mb hurricane for longer than a few hours, and an eyewall reconfiguration cycle. The potential exists for Rita to fall below category 4 intensity; however, I'll maintain category 4 for landfall because the maximum potential intensity for the TX/LA coast area is the highest in the entire Gulf. Note that Rita simply could not stay below 900mb even if there were no dry air, shear, etc.
The next forecast is scheduled for 11pm EDT.
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