Why do I keep reading about "cooler water"??

[TPACane04]

Several posters keep saying that Rita will weaken in 24-48 hours due to "cooler waters..."

I have yet to find a West GOM buoy reporting less than 84 degree water temps...in fact a buoy just off Galveston Island is showing 87.5 water temp.

please look at the NBDC site and tell me if I am missing something.

[thunderchief]

well the depth of the warm water is less so there is overall less energy, especially when rita starts mixing up the cooler lower water.

The slower it goes, the more of a factor it becomes. The water is warm enough to support a cat 5 if the outflow is good and the dry air stays away, in that case intensity will be based on ERCs.

[Florida_TSR]

The heat content of the gulf is lower. Rita is enjoying high heat content but that should last only another 24 hours. Then it starts to cool. This should weaken the storm back to a CAT 3/4.

[milankovitch]

You see those two blue spots those are areas where the water is cooler, what I'm thinking is if the track is north of the NHC track then those shallow spots are just going to be glanced or maybe missed. The current track takes Rita through 25N 90W missing or glancing that first cool pocket. The closer the track is to Galveston the more favorable the 26 degree isotherm. Another point, this storm is moving at a decent clip so HHC may not be the "be all end all" for forcasting intensity. Although the 26 degree isotherm isn't as deep the SST will increase almost till landfall. So consider both not just one or the other.

[JtSmarts]

Wow look at the Caribbean.