18Z GFS right over Galveston

[StormWarning1]

72 hours from model initialization.

[StormWarning1]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

1. Under the 18UTC header use the medium map.
2. Under the 1000-500 MSLP header select the hour you want to see.

[dwg71]

GFS is not a reliable model. It always erodes strong ridges too quickley

[NorthGaWeather]

GFS is not a reliable model. It always erodes strong ridges too quickley

LOL! Several of the models have shifted slightly North. Goes against your thinking, but its alright.

[tallywx]

Not only that but the GFS also shows the hurricane STALLING over Texas after landfall a la Allison in 2001 or Alberto in 1994. So we could have a massive wind damage/storm surge damage AND flooding rainfall damage effects. A 1-2-3 punch is mindboggling and unprecedented.

[deltadog03]

so, did the 12z euro....hey, i use to live in whittier....

[Ivanhater]

GFS is not a reliable model. It always erodes strong ridges too quickley

LOL! Several of the models have shifted slightly North. Goes against your thinking, but its alright.

haaaaa, ya i guess the nogaps it bad too? lol

[Air Force Met]

GFS is not a reliable model. It always erodes strong ridges too quickley

Please. It's agreeing with the NOGAPS...which a WHOLE LOT of people here were using to justify a hit way down the coast. Bottom line is the models are very tightly clustered over Matagorda county and this is really on 50 miles diff...but it is a 50 miles that makes all the diff in the world.

Another thing for you to consider before you diss teh GFS (which seems to be all the time)...is that it was the model that led the way AWAY from a BRO/CRP solution. It was the first major model (along with the UKMET) to show a shift to the north. Yes...it has moved back and forth some...but if you look at the overall trend...it has led the way and the rest of the models have followed suit...including the NOGAPS was was totally hosed as of yesterday.

[mvtrucking]

GFS is not a reliable model. It always erodes strong ridges too quickley

Please. It's agreeing with the NOGAPS...which a WHOLE LOT of people here were using to justify a hit way down the coast. Bottom line is the models are very tightly clustered over Matagorda county and this is really on 50 miles diff...but it is a 50 miles that makes all the diff in the world.

Another thing for you to consider before you diss teh GFS (which seems to be all the time)...is that it was the model that led the way AWAY from a BRO/CRP solution. It was the first major model (along with the UKMET) to show a shift to the north. Yes...it has moved back and forth some...but if you look at the overall trend...it has led the way and the rest of the models have followed suit...including the NOGAPS was was totally hosed as of yesterday.

AFM,
What do you make of the storm wandering north of the forecast points this afternoon and evening? Anything or just the W word?

[Brent]

GFS is not a reliable model. It always erodes strong ridges too quickley

...and next week when your picking up what's left of your home, you won't be saying that.

Seriously... I am not saying this will hit Galveston, but it's time to get serious. You do remember what happened on the MS/AL coast even though they were 50-70 miles east of the eye of Katrina, don't you?

[Air Force Met]

AFM,
What do you make of the storm wandering north of the forecast points this afternoon and evening? Anything or just the W word?

Think it's still a wobbl. I've been very consistent in my track for 5 days now...which is a hit b/w Freeport and Port Lavaca...centered near Matgorda/Sargent as a Cat 4....unlike some who had it going into LA or south Texas.

[Brent]

AFM,
What do you make of the storm wandering north of the forecast points this afternoon and evening? Anything or just the W word?

Think it's still a wobbl. I've been very consistent in my track for 5 days now...which is a hit b/w Freeport and Port Lavaca...centered near Matgorda/Sargent as a Cat 4....unlike some who had it going into LA or south Texas.

Are you staying??? Because the current track takes the eastern eyewall over you...

[Air Force Met]

AFM,
What do you make of the storm wandering north of the forecast points this afternoon and evening? Anything or just the W word?

Think it's still a wobbl. I've been very consistent in my track for 5 days now...which is a hit b/w Freeport and Port Lavaca...centered near Matgorda/Sargent as a Cat 4....unlike some who had it going into LA or south Texas.

Are you staying??? Because the current track takes the eastern eyewall over you...

Believe it or not...I am...but not by choice and not at my house. I put everything in order last night...got the wife and kids packed and they left early this morning to Austin. I am working at Ellington and am staying here through the storm because we have to have a team here as soon as winds will allow us to open the airfield for relief (kinda like they did at NOLA). So I will be riding it out in a bunker.

[StormWarning1]

AFM

Is the cajun restaurant across from EFD 'Pe Te's' still open?

[Air Force Met]

AFM

Is the cajun restaurant across from EFD 'Pe Te's' still open?

NO!!!!! The son took it over and decided he wasn't making enough money and closed it. Really GREAT food there (Cajun for those who don't know). The rumor is it is re-opening...but not sure if it has yet...I come in through (and go out of) another entrance so don't pass there too much. Hope they do re-open...always loved to go there and get some gumbo when I had a cravin'.