This Is Scary(Met On NBC News)

[canegrl04]

He said Rita weakening to cat 4 by landfall is "not set in stone"

[SouthernWx]

He said Rita weakening to cat 4 by landfall is "not set in stone"

He's correct....

While the TCHP is somewhat lower in the western GOM offshore Texas, it certainly isn't "Siberia-like" temperatures. The sea surface temps are definitely warm enough (84-87 F) to support and sustain a category 5 hurricane....as long as it keeps moving to prevent upwelling. I'm personally forecasting landfall a very strong cat-4 hurricane.....145-155 mph, and it honestly won't surprise me if Rita is a landfalling cat-5.....WHY it's imperative that everyone evacuate as quickly as possible.

PW

[cjrciadt]

The only thing set in stone about canes is that they rotate counter-clockwise in the N. hemispehere.

[Roxy]

The only thing set in stone about canes is that they rotate counter-clockwise in the N. hemispehere.

That actually made me chuckle, thanks.

*from someone who just got done boarding up in 100 degree heat, and still isn't sure where or IF I am going**

[shaggy]

that would be tough since the longest lived cat 5 event was isabel a few years back and she only held it for maybe 36 hours.For rita to hold cat 5 till landfall would be unprecedented.Not saying she won't go back and forth between strong 4 and 5 for a day but i do not see how she can hold cat 5 that long

[milankovitch]

He said Rita weakening to cat 4 by landfall is "not set in stone"

He's correct....

While the TCHP is somewhat lower in the western GOM offshore Texas, it certainly isn't "Siberia-like" temperatures. The sea surface temps are definitely warm enough (84-87 F) to support and sustain a category 5 hurricane....as long as it keeps moving to prevent upwelling. I'm personally forecasting landfall a very strong cat-4 hurricane.....145-155 mph, and it honestly won't surprise me if Rita is a landfalling cat-5.....WHY it's imperative that everyone evacuate as quickly as possible.

PW

I agree as well, and the farther north of the NHC track Rita travels (closer to Galveston) the deeper the 26 degree isotherm is, a cat 5 landfall is a grim, but very possible scenario.

[Mac]

that would be tough since the longest lived cat 5 event was isabel a few years back and she only held it for maybe 36 hours.For rita to hold cat 5 till landfall would be unprecedented.Not saying she won't go back and forth between strong 4 and 5 for a day but i do not see how she can hold cat 5 that long

We're getting into uncharted territory here. Just because something hasn't happened before, doesn't mean it won't this year. After all, isn't it the year of new happenings?

I agree with your premise. Generally, a category 5 will drop a category during certain life cycle events, such as ERCs. But when we usually see a cat 5 go through an ERC, it was a borderline Cat 4/5 to begin with. But what happens if a Cat 5 is pushing 175 mph when it goes through its ERC? Will it still drop to a Cat 4 during the ERC, or will it only drop to a 160 mph Cat 5? We don't really know because we have no history to base it upon.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Brent]

I wouldn't rule anything out... I think it's more likely it'll make landfall as a Cat 4, but they always tell you to prepare for one category higher. Nothing would surprise me after the rapid intensification today.

[jpigott]

you know, at this point it almost doesn't even matter whether it comes in as a 5, 4 or strong 3. The real killer is always surge. And just like with Ivan and Katrina, Rita is a 5 in the middle of the gulf and will likely take her cat5 surge all the way to the coast even if her winds diminish

[soonertwister]

Pacific hurricanes can keep category 5 strength day after day. Isabel was farther north, and if memory serves me, in cooler waters.

Absent external limiting factors and unruly ERC's, Rita can sustain category 5 up to landfall, if a significant reduction in forward speed does not occur.

There will certainly be some reduction in strength as Rita interacts with land, but the land is low and the interaction won't be extreme.

If, for instance, Rita nears land at 155 knots or higher, it's entirely possible that she could reach shore at 140 knots or more.

This is ugly, but the honest truth.

[smashmode]

Nothing is set in stone.

This could be scary.

[THead]

you know, at this point it almost doesn't even matter whether it comes in as a 5, 4 or strong 3. The real killer is always surge. And just like with Ivan and Katrina, Rita is a 5 in the middle of the gulf and will likely take her cat5 surge all the way to the coast even if her winds diminish

That is a GREAT point that is easily forgotten and very important.

[Scott_inVA]

TCs that creep in can't hold Cat-5 pressure...their northern quads (in Rita's case, the NW and SW quads) interact with land/dry air. Now, if Rita is hauling into TX at say 18-20 knots...very possible.

There will also be at least 1 ERC, possibly 2 but that is an inexact science.

Scott

[milankovitch]

Eye still at 20 miles (it's been EXACTLY 20 miles for a while now) if it begins to contract to around 10 miles you'll know an ERC is in the future.

[arcticfire]

Then there is always the possibilty of it winding itself into a 200mph cain and slowly bleeding off strength till it hits land at 160/170.

When we talk about future intensity the only thing thats consistant is that models always bork the forecast.

[johngaltfla]

[URL=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/al052005.discus.008.shtml?]SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.[/URL]

NHC, Tropical Storm Emily, Discussion number 8 on July 12, 2005.

After these last two seasons, I say all bets are off.