Rita HAS moved more WNW in last Few Hours.........

[dwg71]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

Add the LAT/LON lines to the Sat. Link above and you'll see what we are talking about. It is not a wobble, a wobble does not last for 4+ hours with a storm of this magnitude. It is a trend and I hope that trend stops and does not continue to bend even moreso. Matter of fact, I pray you are correct and that I'm wrong. But I've been doing this for 35 yrs and know what I'm looking at. I would not have posted the topic until I ascertained that it was not a wobble to begin with.

The world is not flat and the pictures are not shot from directly over the storm at all times. The recon fixes are undisputable. 0 gain in lattitude in 9 hours according to NHC. How much lattitude has Rita gained according to your calculations.

[NorthGaWeather]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

Add the LAT/LON lines to the Sat. Link above and you'll see what we are talking about. It is not a wobble, a wobble does not last for 4+ hours with a storm of this magnitude. It is a trend and I hope that trend stops and does not continue to bend even moreso. Matter of fact, I pray you are correct and that I'm wrong. But I've been doing this for 35 yrs and know what I'm looking at. I would not have posted the topic until I ascertained that it was not a wobble to begin with.

The world is not flat and the pictures are not shot from directly over the storm at all times. The recon fixes are undisputable. 0 gain in lattitude in 9 hours according to NHC. How much lattitude has Rita gained according to your calculations.

Look, it obviously wobbled WNW. If you don't believe it, I can find a great eye doctor that will fix you up. Yesterday you tried to say somehow that Rita was moving South based on Recon positions, when in fact it was moving west of just north of West. Even the NHC comments on the 275 motion.

[dwg71]

it did wobble wnw, but it immediatly followed a wsw jog.

[NorthGaWeather]

it did wobble wnw, but it immediatly followed a wsw jog.

I saw a W motion then a WNW motion back to West. No WSW.

[MGC]

It is a wobble. Seems to be on a west track once again......MGC

[mvtrucking]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

2 steps north 1 step south still puts it 1 step further north....the "wobble" north is a big one compared to any south

Then how do you explain 0 gain in lattitude since this morning, at 7AM. It was 24.4 then and it was 24.4 at last update. I'm not a math major, but 0W is Due west.

Edit; double post sorry

[mvtrucking]

NHC 7AM points 24.4N 85.3W and at 24.4N and 86.8W. That's 0.0N and 1.3W over 9 hours. That's Due west.

ummm, please tell me your not saying it hasnt gone north in 9 hours....look at satellite

Its gone as far north as it went south, storms dont go straight.

2 steps north 1 step south still puts it 1 step further north....the "wobble" north is a big one compared to any south

Then how do you explain 0 gain in lattitude since this morning, at 7AM. It was 24.4 then and it was 24.4 at last update. I'm not a math major, but 0W is Due west.

The majority of the north jog above the forecast points was after the update.(As their info is a bit behind each update)

[aOl]

it did wobble wnw, but it immediatly followed a wsw jog.

WSW? It hasn't even moved DUE west in the last 4 hours. Even now it is almost due west but very slightly north of west. And it was a NW wobble, not WNW, if you extrapolated the way it was going about 2 hours ago it would end up on SE Louisiana. Katrina had these types of wobbles just before she began her turn.

[Ivanhater]

ahhh, looks like its bumping north again 2315 image

[CYCLONE MIKE]

ivanhater, why don't you jump over to the Lake Charles landfall thread. Us here from LA are watching every bump, wobble, jog it makes to the north. Ii would like to see your opinions on this.

[rockyman]

Looking at a 6 hour loop shows a definite right bend...not just a wobble...we'll see if this continues over the next few hours...Anyone think that the intensity explosion could be the cause a temporary turn?

[Ivanhater]

ivanhater, why don't you jump over to the Lake Charles landfall thread. Us here from LA are watching every bump, wobble, jog it makes to the north. Ii would like to see your opinions on this.

ive have been thinking lousiana the whole time....i would be watching big time in lousiana

[Mac]

Looking at a 6 hour loop shows a definite right bend...not just a wobble...we'll see if this continues over the next few hours...Anyone think that the intensity explosion could be the cause a temporary turn?

No, the intensity has nothing to do with the interaction with the high. It wouldn't matter if she was at 200 kts. A hurricane is no match for a high pressure system.

I think that sometimes people tend to forget that the edges of high pressure systems are not clean lines--like a paper cut. The edges are ragged, like a paper tear. She's feeling her way along he edge of the high pressure system right now. She may head north for a bit, then west, then south, then north again. She's going to want to head poleward, and she will to the extent that the high pressure system will allow it. But don't for a minute think she is going to be able to overpower that high.

I don't think she's heading to LA. She'll make it further north than Freeport, I believe. But I'm thinking direct hit on Galveston, unfortunately. Perhaps as far north as Beaumont. But not LA.

[Ivanhater]

2345 image getting even farther north of forecast point

[rockyman]

Looking at a 6 hour loop shows a definite right bend...not just a wobble...we'll see if this continues over the next few hours...Anyone think that the intensity explosion could be the cause a temporary turn?

No, the intensity has nothing to do with the interaction with the high. It wouldn't matter if she was at 200 kts. A hurricane is no match for a high pressure system.

Thanks! I appreciate the response...what I was wondering was not whether the intensity caused a change in direction, but the INCREASE in intensity (acceleration vs velocity)...probably not, but it's a thought...I know that when one side of a storm suddenly collapses (such as with Ivan at landfall), the movement of the storm was changed.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have a question about "the high". Last I heard there was a front that was supposed to drop down from the northwest that would weaken the high and push it eastward. This all depends on how strong the trough is and how fast it is moving. What is the latest on this? i have not heard anyone mention it. Is it even developing on in the US yet?

[tailgater]

Looking at a 6 hour loop shows a definite right bend...not just a wobble...we'll see if this continues over the next few hours...Anyone think that the intensity explosion could be the cause a temporary turn?

No, the intensity has nothing to do with the interaction with the high. It wouldn't matter if she was at 200 kts. A hurricane is no match for a high pressure system.

I think that sometimes people tend to forget that the edges of high pressure systems are not clean lines--like a paper cut. The edges are ragged, like a paper tear. She's feeling her way along he edge of the high pressure system right now. She may head north for a bit, then west, then south, then north again. She's going to want to head poleward, and she will to the extent that the high pressure system will allow it. But don't for a minute think she is going to be able to overpower that high.

I don't think she's heading to LA. She'll make it further north than Freeport, I believe. But I'm thinking direct hit on Galveston, unfortunately. Perhaps as far north as Beaumont. But not LA.

The intensity of a cane can influence it's own direction because if it extends high enough in the atmosphere to steered by the 200 and 300 mb high rather than the normal 500mb high.

[Air Force Met]

It's wobbling back to the left now...feeling out the ridge. Don't be surprised to maybe see a slight job WSW later.

[Brent]

This is the official wobble thread.

[dwg71]

It's wobbling back to the left now...feeling out the ridge. Don't be surprised to maybe see a slight job WSW later.

I cant see a Cat 5 at 25N in the central gulf headin NW for 3 hours, bend back WSW. Maybe its possible, i dont know. Maybe straighten out towards WNW until next weakness is found. There appears to be many.