This is a Lake Charles, LA storm, IMO

[Sean in New Orleans]

This, of course, is my opinion, but, the system appears to be slowing down and I'm watching a hurricane change directions. This storm looks like it will go as far West as Galveston and possibly, as far east as Lafayette. But bets are all on Lake Charles, LA from everything I've seen since noon. No matter what, EVERYONE, please take care of yourselves and get out of the way of this monster. I'm here to tell you that this is serious business. I rode out Katrina in New Orleans, managed to escape 3 days later, and now, am still up in Illinois. I haven't been home in 4 weeks. God Bless Everyone and keep your eyes on Lake Charles, LA, IMO.

[Cookiely]

Our Tampa met says the VIPIR which did very well on Hurricane Charley last year says Texas/LA border.

[skysummit]

Lake Charles was my very first prediction.

[Recurve]

I am afraid you may be right Sean, and I hope everyone in western LA has time to get out of harm's way.

[Lori]

Lake Charles was my very first prediction.

Are people in SW Louisiana taking this seriously, or have they written it off as a Texas threat?

[mvtrucking]

I have been talking with my brother in Baton Rouge all day and
we both have our bets on a Louisiana landfall(Tx/La border on the La side). This storm has been trying to go nw all afternoon and is really above the forecast pts now. I am thinking she gets over 25 before getting to the next frcst pt easily.JMO

[LaBreeze]

All mets around here are saying central Texas coast up to Galveston. No mention of it coming up this way - just tropical storm force conditions expected here.

[BayouVenteux]

Good to hear you're safe Sean. I'm putting my trust in the NHC, the S2k mets like Derek (Ortt), Don (Sutherland), AirForceMet and their solid forecasting knowledge with regard to a landfall generally between Galveston and Corpus. We can't, as a state, economically sustain another hit head-on. I wish Texas didn't have to bear this one, but they have a lot more resources at their disposal and a nation already on a collective state of high readiness this time around. They, like us, WILL persevere through this terrible ordeal.

On that note, while events beyond your control have taken you and too many others far from home, I sincerely hope you'll return to N.O. as soon as you're able. New Orleans would not be the unique and special city that it is without its people, and we simply can't afford to lose any more than we already have.

Take care and God bless.

Brian

[rockyman]

Is this significant? Look at the steering layer HP over Texas 24 hours ago



versus now:



Note the lines are much farther apart (does this mean weaker?)

Woops...posting now...just reported 899

[CYCLONE MIKE]

mvtrucking, sean, recurve, I have to agree with all of you. I am watching Rita zoomed in on NASA's site and she is definately stair stepping her way more northerly as time goes by and also looks a little slower. I also was thinking Lake Charles area by the way. I keep thinking back from Katrina through last year and how these storms always seem to turn on a dime a little earlier than forecast. It just seems to me that once a north componet has begun it does not go back west. Just my two cents. My opinion only. If I am wrong so be it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Good to hear you're safe Sean. I'm putting my trust in the NHC, the S2k mets like Derek (Ortt), Don (Sutherland), AirForceMet and their solid forecasting knowledge with regard to a landfall generally between Galveston and Corpus. We can't, as a state, economically sustain another hit head-on. I wish Texas didn't have to bear this one, but they have a lot more resources at their disposal and a nation already on a collective state of high readiness this time around. They, like us, WILL persevere through this terrible ordeal.

On that note, while events beyond your control have taken you and too many others far from home, I sincerely hope you'll return to N.O. as soon as you're able. New Orleans would not be the unique and special city that it is without its people, and we simply can't afford to lose any more than we already have.
Take care and God bless.

Brian

Thank you. I honestly don't wish this storm on anyone. I'm blessed and suffered no damage to my home or vehicles with Katrina. I'm hoping to return home and back to work at Hibernia National Bank within two weeks.

[coolwater]

Sean, i agree. I think they are way off on this one. You can already see the wnw turn happening now. That aint no wobble. This thing has Louisiana in her sights i'm afraid.

[Recurve]

All mets around here are saying central Texas coast up to Galveston. No mention of it coming up this way - just tropical storm force conditions expected here.

LaBreeze, I hope you are considering what to do in case. People should prepare to leave, just to avoid a last-minute heart attack if it moves more in your direction. For anyone in a flood zone I'd consider planning to leave just in case. A slightly tighter bend in the track and it's very near there.

One model even showed a tight bend yesterday, forget which though.

I left the Keys for Rita, even though it was a TS and Key West is 100 miles south. The intensity was too uncertain and the track too close. You know Rita's intensity now, keep an eye on the track. The right side is going to be deep.

[Wacahootaman]

I am watching those steering charts too rocky. Looks like a weakness has formed in the ridge over the Fla panhandle.

[Mac]

I do believe the track will be adjusted eastward. But not as far as LA. I think Galveston is back in the bullseye, or perhaps as far east as Port Arthur. But I really think LA is a bit of a stretch.

[deltadog03]

yeah, the high is weakening....i think they will only move it east a little bit...just south of galveston....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

You have to agree though Mac, for all of what we have been through and now there is another cat 5 in the Gulf southeast of LA it is very disturbing watching her wooble her way more to the north by the hour when everyone is saying Texas. What do you see as a major latitude point at which she crosses 90' west to be a big factor for us here?

[ronjon]

I am watching those steering charts too rocky. Looks like a weakness has formed in the ridge over the Fla panhandle.

Yes, but isn't the ridge over TX supposed to slide east. If this weakness persisted, the whole fl panhandle/west coast would be at risk - gotta trust nhc on this one.

[HouTXmetro]

I am watching those steering charts too rocky. Looks like a weakness has formed in the ridge over the Fla panhandle.

Yes, but isn't the ridge over TX supposed to slide east. If this weakness persisted, the whole fl panhandle/west coast would be at risk - gotta trust nhc on this one.

We will just have to wait and see. I couldn't fathom the NHC blowing a foecast that bad.

[dwg71]

The farthest northern edge of the cone has it crossing 25N around 88W.
At the current heading its going to cross 25N near 87.5N. That edge has center crossing 120 miles into LA.

If it holds this course for another 4-6 hours, I think many people are going to be caught off guard.

Isnt it Neal Frank that says landfall is outside the 72 hour cone 30% of the time.

Lets wait and see.