Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/2345 UTC 24.6N 86.8W T7.5/7.5 RITA

from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/tropclass.txt

[artist]

sorry for the double post

[WindRunner]

I noticed no one posted the 00Z runs that go from 175mph. Here they are:

WHXX01 KWBC 220037
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050922 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050922 0000 050922 1200 050923 0000 050923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.5N 86.8W 25.1N 88.5W 25.9N 90.2W 26.7N 92.0W
BAMM 24.5N 86.8W 25.0N 88.6W 25.4N 90.1W 25.8N 91.7W
A98E 24.5N 86.8W 24.9N 88.1W 25.6N 89.3W 27.0N 90.4W
LBAR 24.5N 86.8W 25.0N 88.6W 25.7N 90.5W 26.7N 92.4W
SHIP 150KTS 154KTS 144KTS 129KTS
DSHP 150KTS 154KTS 144KTS 129KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050924 0000 050925 0000 050926 0000 050927 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.8N 93.8W 30.1N 96.1W 30.9N 96.6W 31.5N 98.6W
BAMM 26.5N 93.1W 28.3N 95.0W 29.1N 96.0W 29.5N 98.9W
A98E 29.0N 91.3W 32.3N 90.3W 36.7N 87.1W 37.4N 76.7W
LBAR 28.1N 94.2W 31.4N 96.1W 34.3N 94.0W 34.6N 89.5W
SHIP 116KTS 82KTS 48KTS 0KTS
DSHP 116KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.5N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.3N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 82.7W
WNDCUR = 150KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 898MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 160NM

[cjrciadt]

What are the T-numbers now 7.5 or 8.0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

21/2345 UTC 24.6N 86.8W T7.5/7.5 RITA

CI MWS MWS MSLP
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb

I cant believe I'am saying this but that 906 pressure is to high, and the winds to high too.

[Brent]

150 kt-175 mph?

[cjrciadt]

[Brent]

That is the worst case scenario for Houston/Galveston...

Friday 8pm forecast is 155 mph BTW.

[cjrciadt]

Some models say 170 knts or 195mph!!!!!!!!!!!!11

[vaffie]

I really can't believe what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. First of all the 0Z eastward model shift that continued from the 18Z one, that now places so many of them right over Houston, and the second that on satellite, it is STILL strengthening! The clouds tops are still CONTINUING to get even colder! A lot of dark brown you can see on IR in the last hour. Sheesh!--what kind of storm is this? And what if it doesn't weaken! What if they're wrong? They've never even been any good at forecasting strength anyway! They were predicting it to be a Cat3 at this point, and look at it--it would be like a Cat 7!!! It must have sustained winds of 200+ right now already! What if the "shear"--turns out to improve it's outflow or something, what if it's enormous amount of updraft is going to KILL any shear that comes anywhere near it? What if? What if? I don't know... It's a good thing we're leaving earlier tomorrow than we had planned to. Everyone else--if you live anywhere in Southeast Texas, and I mean anywhere, you should leave. If this storm stalls as the models are saying--see for instance the latest Dallas Fort Worth forecast discussion, after the wind is over, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, they're all going to have a flooding situation of unimaginable severity over the next week. Good luck, and God speed.
-vaffie

[vaffie]

I really can't believe what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. First of all the 0Z eastward model shift that continued from the 18Z one, that now places so many of them right over Houston, and the second that on satellite, it is STILL strengthening! The clouds tops are still CONTINUING to get even colder! A lot of dark brown you can see on IR in the last hour. Sheesh!--what kind of storm is this? And what if it doesn't weaken! What if they're wrong? They've never even been any good at forecasting strength anyway! They were predicting it to be a Cat3 at this point, and look at it--it would be like a Cat 7!!! It must have sustained winds of 200+ right now already! What if the "shear"--turns out to improve it's outflow or something, what if it's enormous amount of updraft is going to KILL any shear that comes anywhere near it? What if? What if? I don't know... It's a good thing we're leaving earlier tomorrow than we had planned to. Everyone else--if you live anywhere in Southeast Texas, and I mean anywhere, you should leave. If this storm stalls as the models are saying--see for instance the latest Dallas Fort Worth forecast discussion, after the wind is over, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, they're all going to have a flooding situation of unimaginable severity over the next week. Good luck, and God speed.
-vaffie

[arcticfire]

the SHIPS model now peaks at 177mph....and then rapidly takes off 50mph before landfall....interesting that it sees that much unfavorable at 48 hours..

Didn't the SHIPS also say yesterday that it wouldn't make it past 125knt ? Seriously I don't know why people bother using that chart.

[Hurrilurker]

3. Major quake levels San Francisco ???

Hey hey hey now! Shhhhhhhh!

[LarryWx]

To estimate where this NHC projected track is crossing the TX coast, I think it is best to draw an imaginary clockwise CURVE from the FRI point to the SAT point rather than a straight line since they generally travel in a curved (parabolic) path when turning rather than stair-stepping. (I'm not talking about the more short-term wobbling that is also normal). Drawing a curve, I get a northern Matagorda county projected landfall or about 60 miles SW of Galveston. A straight line would have suggested a Brazoria county projected landfall about 40 miles NE up the coast or ~20 miles SW of Galveston.

[Mac]

To estimate where this NHC projected track is crossing the TX coast, I think it is best to draw an imaginary clockwise CURVE from the FRI point to the SAT point rather than a straight line since they generally travel in a curved (parabolic) path when turning rather than stair-stepping. (I'm not talking about the more short-term wobbling that is also normal). Drawing a curve, I get a northern Matagorda county projected landfall or about 60 miles SW of Galveston. A straight line would have suggested a Brazoria county projected landfall about 40 miles NE up the coast or ~20 miles SW of Galveston.

If Saturday's forecast point were further east, then I'd tend to agree with what you're saying. But a straight line would give a better landfall point that a curved line in this scenario, IMHO, since the storm is still forecasted to be traveling NW after landfall.

[Mac]

To estimate where this NHC projected track is crossing the TX coast, I think it is best to draw an imaginary clockwise CURVE from the FRI point to the SAT point rather than a straight line since they generally travel in a curved (parabolic) path when turning rather than stair-stepping. (I'm not talking about the more short-term wobbling that is also normal). Drawing a curve, I get a northern Matagorda county projected landfall or about 60 miles SW of Galveston. A straight line would have suggested a Brazoria county projected landfall about 40 miles NE up the coast or ~20 miles SW of Galveston.

If Saturday's forecast point were further east, then I'd tend to agree with what you're saying. But a straight line would give a better landfall point that a curved line in this scenario, IMHO, since the storm is still forecasted to be traveling NW after landfall.

[THead]

We in a Sat blackout now? Combined with no recon??

[skysummit]

Latest Model Plot:

[oneness]

Last GEOS IR before black-out. Will be interesting to see what she looks like in IR after the sat comes back. What a brute!

[superfly]

[deltadog03]

the sat is back up...looks much better IMO....its starting to get the buzz saw look again...