Rita Recon Reports

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Sooner you can't argue with science, period. The AF plane at the time did not find any wind speeds strong enough to up the winds, therefore they left them at 165. Period. They aren't going to do it just because the pressure goes down. The winds are not based on pressure, they are based on the pressure gradient.

EXAMPLE:

A 20 mb difference in pressure between two points 100 miles apart is going to cause a much lower wind than a 20 mb difference between two points 20 miles apart.

[thunderchief]

give them a break, they are waiting for recon.

[thunderchief]

give them a break, they are waiting for recon.

[superfly]

I'm glad they changed the winds to 175, but the fact remains that now they are saying "Yes you live in Houston, but you are above sea level, and this storm is no stronger than Katrina."

Nothing in the real record supports winds as low as 175 mph (155 knots). They are minimizing the catastrophe that could strike a metro area that at last report counted 5.2 million people has residents.

I know what I'm seeing, and hopefully at some point NHC can explain their low-ball estimate when the next recon won't be for hours. They have access to much more of the big picture than I do, but for those who don't know it, I'm a big advocate of the truth, and we aren't getting it from them right now regarding the magnitude of this threat.

What are you talking about? Recon flight data supports only 165MPH. They upped it to 175MPH based on the pressure drop. How is that low-balling? Katrina was 175MPH at 902mb and was a much larger system. Gilbert was 185MPH at 888mb. Rita is estimated at 175MPH at 897mb, sounds about right to me.

[cjrciadt]

The problem now is that they could find higher winds, but at the cost of risking the lifes of the crew of the plane? That cost would be to far high with Rita in her "god" like power and strength.

[superfly]

I'm glad they changed the winds to 175, but the fact remains that now they are saying "Yes you live in Houston, but you are above sea level, and this storm is no stronger than Katrina."

Nothing in the real record supports winds as low as 175 mph (155 knots). They are minimizing the catastrophe that could strike a metro area that at last report counted 5.2 million people has residents.

I know what I'm seeing, and hopefully at some point NHC can explain their low-ball estimate when the next recon won't be for hours. They have access to much more of the big picture than I do, but for those who don't know it, I'm a big advocate of the truth, and we aren't getting it from them right now regarding the magnitude of this threat.

What are you talking about? Recon flight data supports only 165MPH. They upped it to 175MPH based on the pressure drop. How is that low-balling? Katrina was 175MPH at 902mb and was a much larger system. Gilbert was 185MPH at 888mb. Rita is estimated at 175MPH at 897mb, sounds about right to me.

[thunderchief]

they are waiting for recon

[ALhurricane]

626
SXXX50 KNHC 220256
AF307 1618A RITA HDOB 01 KNHC
0245. 3355N 08431W 00260 0036 360 000 240 176 000 00302 0000000000
0246 3355N 08431W 00261 0037 360 000 242 178 000 00304 0000000000
0246. 3355N 08431W 00261 0038 360 000 246 182 000 00305 0000000000
0247 3355N 08431W 00261 0037 360 000 246 180 000 00304 0000000000
0247. 3355N 08431W 00260 0036 360 000 244 184 000 00302 0000000000
0248 3355N 08430W 00258 0037 360 000 244 188 000 00300 0000000000
0248. 3355N 08430W 00255 0037 360 000 240 188 000 00299 0000000000
0249 3355N 08430W 00254 0038 360 000 240 186 000 00298 0000000000
0249. 3355N 08430W 00253 0038 360 000 248 186 000 00296 0000000000
0250 3355N 08430W 00253 0036 360 000 256 186 000 00296 0000000000
0250. 3355N 08430W 00253 0037 360 000 256 186 000 00296 0000000000
0251 3355N 08430W 00253 0037 360 000 252 182 000 00296 0000000000
0251. 3355N 08430W 00253 0038 360 000 250 180 000 00297 0000000000
0252 3355N 08430W 00253 0038 360 000 250 178 000 00297 0000000000
0252. 3355N 08430W 00253 0039 360 000 250 178 000 00298 0000000000
0253 3355N 08430W 00253 0039 360 000 250 178 000 00298 0000000000
0253. 3355N 08430W 00253 0037 360 000 250 180 000 00296 0000000000
0254 3355N 08430W 00253 0034 360 000 250 180 000 00293 0000000000
0254. 3355N 08430W 00254 0034 360 000 250 178 000 00294 0000000000
0255 3355N 08430W 00253 0036 360 000 250 180 000 00295 0000000000


Here goes recon! They just took off.

[superfly]

I will say this. When I visited the NHC site, they had the winds unchanged at 165, in spite of the continuing dramatic fall in pressure. I didn't go back to see if they'd taken an oskie.

I'm glad they changed the winds to 175, but the fact remains that now they are saying "Yes you live in Houston, but you are above sea level, and this storm is no stronger than Katrina."

Nothing in the real record supports winds as low as 175 mph (155 knots). They are minimizing the catastrophe that could strike a metro area that at last report counted 5.2 million people has residents.

I know what I'm seeing, and hopefully at some point NHC can explain their low-ball estimate when the next recon won't be for hours. They have access to much more of the big picture than I do, but for those who don't know it, I'm a big advocate of the truth, and we aren't getting it from them right now regarding the magnitude of this threat.

[thunderchief]

they are waiting for recon

[Pebbles]

963
SXXX50 KNHC 220316
AF307 1618A RITA HDOB 03 KNHC
0305. 3349N 08502W 02892 0172 121 015 074 028 015 03069 0000000000
0306 3348N 08504W 03053 0180 119 015 070 009 015 03238 0000000000
0306. 3346N 08506W 03268 0191 117 011 064 079 012 03464 0000000000
0307 3345N 08508W 03453 0203 077 013 066 171 013 03662 0000000000
0307. 3344N 08509W 03593 0213 067 012 066 185 013 03811 0000000000
0308 3343N 08511W 03761 0225 077 012 056 177 013 03992 0000000000
0308. 3342N 08513W 03891 0236 084 014 048 177 014 04133 0000000000
0309 3341N 08515W 03988 0243 078 016 040 181 017 04238 0000000000
0309. 3339N 08516W 04084 0248 075 017 032 185 018 04339 0000000000
0310 3337N 08517W 04194 0254 073 016 024 185 017 04455 0000000000
0310. 3336N 08518W 04314 0259 078 016 012 195 016 04582 0000000000
0311 3334N 08520W 04417 0265 072 016 004 203 017 04690 0000000000
0311. 3333N 08521W 04502 0270 068 018 003 207 018 04780 0000000000
0312 3331N 08523W 04648 0276 080 015 011 219 017 04934 0000000000
0312. 3330N 08524W 04797 0288 080 013 025 229 014 05094 0000000000
0313 3329N 08526W 04883 0293 068 013 031 235 013 05185 0000000000
0313. 3327N 08527W 04962 0297 059 014 037 233 014 05268 0000000000
0314 3326N 08529W 05045 0300 060 015 043 237 015 05355 0000000000
0314. 3325N 08530W 05185 0306 055 012 045 247 013 05501 0000000000
0315 3323N 08532W 05311 0314 041 012 053 257 013 05635 0000000000

[baygirl_1]

Well, here's a quote from Derek in the Tropical Analysis forum:

Looking forward to possibly recording the lowest pressure ever in a cane

So, that flight he's going on will be checking the pressure, too.

[sma10]

I will say this. When I visited the NHC site, they had the winds unchanged at 165, in spite of the continuing dramatic fall in pressure. I didn't go back to see if they'd taken an oskie.

I'm glad they changed the winds to 175, but the fact remains that now they are saying "Yes you live in Houston, but you are above sea level, and this storm is no stronger than Katrina."

Nothing in the real record supports winds as low as 175 mph (155 knots). They are minimizing the catastrophe that could strike a metro area that at last report counted 5.2 million people has residents.

I know what I'm seeing, and hopefully at some point NHC can explain their low-ball estimate when the next recon won't be for hours. They have access to much more of the big picture than I do, but for those who don't know it, I'm a big advocate of the truth, and we aren't getting it from them right now regarding the magnitude of this threat.

Oh, brother.

Take a deep breath, step back, and then listen to yourself. You sound ridiculous.

You think the average person looks at this storm with winds of 175mph and thinks, "Oh, no big deal. This storm is only as strong as Katrina." Quite the opposite is true!! What the average person will REALLY think is, "Holy Crap!! This storm is as bad as Katrina!!"

[Brent]

When will they reach the eye? I've got to know what the pressure is before bed...

[Pebbles]

544
SXXX50 KNHC 220326
AF307 1618A RITA HDOB 04 KNHC
0315. 3322N 08533W 05425 0320 029 014 061 265 015 05755 0000000000
0316 3321N 08535W 05539 0326 017 017 071 267 018 05876 0000000000
0316. 3319N 08536W 05658 0333 016 019 079 273 020 06002 0000000000
0317 3318N 08538W 05795 0341 356 020 075 275 022 06147 0000000000
0317. 3316N 08540W 05913 0351 356 018 075 281 019 06275 0000000000
0318 3315N 08541W 06018 0357 356 017 081 283 018 06387 0000000000
0318. 3313N 08543W 06089 0364 352 019 085 283 020 06466 0000000000
0319 3312N 08544W 06105 0367 352 019 089 287 020 06485 0000000000
0319. 3310N 08546W 06100 0369 352 019 089 293 019 06482 0000000000
0320 3308N 08548W 06101 0371 354 019 091 297 019 06484 0000000000
0320. 3307N 08550W 06099 0372 356 020 091 295 020 06483 0000000100
0321 3305N 08552W 06098 0373 356 021 091 289 021 06483 0000000000
0321. 3303N 08554W 06098 0374 355 020 091 289 020 06485 0000000000
0322 3301N 08556W 06098 0376 355 020 091 293 020 06487 0000000000
0322. 3259N 08559W 06097 0377 355 020 089 295 020 06487 0000000000
0323 3257N 08601W 06097 0379 356 020 089 301 020 06488 0000000000
0323. 3255N 08603W 06096 0379 360 019 087 301 020 06488 0000000000
0324 3253N 08605W 06095 0383 359 019 087 299 019 06490 0000000000
0324. 3251N 08607W 06094 0387 358 018 085 299 018 06493 0000000000
0325 3249N 08610W 06097 0389 358 017 085 297 018 06498 0000000000

[vortex100]

soonertwister wrote:
I will say this. When I visited the NHC site, they had the winds unchanged at 165, in spite of the continuing dramatic fall in pressure. I didn't go back to see if they'd taken an oskie.

I'm glad they changed the winds to 175, but the fact remains that now they are saying "Yes you live in Houston, but you are above sea level, and this storm is no stronger than Katrina."

Nothing in the real record supports winds as low as 175 mph (155 knots). They are minimizing the catastrophe that could strike a metro area that at last report counted 5.2 million people has residents.

I know what I'm seeing, and hopefully at some point NHC can explain their low-ball estimate when the next recon won't be for hours. They have access to much more of the big picture than I do, but for those who don't know it, I'm a big advocate of the truth, and we aren't getting it from them right now regarding the magnitude of this threat.

As we saw more than a couple of times with Katrina, it sometimes takes time for the winds to respond to dramatic pressure falls. It can take 2-4 hours. They may, in fact, not be low-balling the winds. Be patient for the next recon.

[Pebbles]

I dunno LOL I don't understand the flight paths like some others do.. just sharing the minobs

[Brent]

OK... they are over East Central Alabama so it'll probably be close to 2am EDT.

[Pebbles]

698
SXXX50 KNHC 220336
AF307 1618A RITA HDOB 05 KNHC
0325. 3247N 08612W 06096 0390 355 016 085 265 016 06500 0000000100
0326 3245N 08614W 06096 0391 356 017 085 085 017 06500 0000000100
0326. 3243N 08616W 06095 0389 358 018 085 085 018 06497 0000000100
0327 3241N 08619W 06096 0389 002 019 085 085 019 06498 0000000100
0327. 3239N 08621W 06096 0387 002 020 085 085 020 06496 0000000100
0328 3236N 08623W 06095 0386 003 021 085 085 021 06493 0000000100
0328. 3234N 08625W 06095 0385 001 020 085 151 021 06493 0000000100
0329 3232N 08627W 06097 0386 358 017 085 305 018 06496 0000000000
0329. 3230N 08630W 06096 0385 357 016 085 307 016 06493 0000000000
0330 3228N 08632W 06097 0382 360 017 085 315 017 06491 0000000000
0330. 3226N 08634W 06097 0381 004 018 085 335 018 06491 0000000000
0331 3224N 08636W 06095 0379 008 019 091 341 019 06487 0000000000
0331. 3222N 08639W 06096 0377 009 019 091 327 020 06486 0000000000
0332 3220N 08641W 06096 0376 008 019 091 313 019 06485 0000000000
0332. 3218N 08643W 06096 0377 005 021 091 255 022 06486 0000000000
0333 3216N 08645W 06095 0378 002 021 091 231 022 06486 0000000000
0333. 3214N 08647W 06096 0378 360 019 091 213 020 06486 0000000000
0334 3212N 08650W 06097 0378 001 020 095 211 020 06488 0000000000
0334. 3210N 08652W 06097 0378 004 020 095 191 020 06488 0000000000
0335 3208N 08654W 06096 0379 007 020 097 199 020 06488 0000000000

[Pebbles]

877
SXXX50 KNHC 220346
AF307 1618A RITA HDOB 06 KNHC
0335. 3205N 08656W 06096 0379 007 017 093 199 018 06488 0000000000
0336 3203N 08658W 06096 0378 011 018 099 197 018 06488 0000000000
0336. 3201N 08701W 06097 0378 010 018 099 195 018 06488 0000000000
0337 3159N 08703W 06094 0377 009 018 099 189 018 06484 0000000000
0337. 3157N 08705W 06097 0379 010 017 097 195 018 06489 0000000000
0338 3155N 08707W 06096 0379 011 017 097 201 018 06488 0000000000
0338. 3153N 08709W 06096 0378 015 016 091 217 016 06487 0000000000
0339 3151N 08711W 06096 0379 011 016 093 207 016 06488 0000000000
0339. 3149N 08714W 06094 0378 012 016 091 215 016 06485 0000000000
0340 3147N 08716W 06097 0378 019 017 091 209 017 06489 0000000000
0340. 3145N 08718W 06097 0380 014 016 095 211 016 06490 0000000000
0341 3143N 08720W 06096 0380 014 016 091 209 017 06490 0000000000
0341. 3141N 08722W 06094 0380 012 016 093 213 016 06487 0000000000
0342 3139N 08725W 06097 0380 021 016 091 211 016 06490 0000000000
0342. 3137N 08727W 06096 0380 025 016 091 213 016 06489 0000000000
0343 3135N 08729W 06097 0379 028 016 091 213 017 06489 0000000000
0343. 3132N 08731W 06096 0380 026 016 091 211 016 06490 0000000000
0344 3130N 08733W 06096 0381 030 016 091 215 016 06490 0000000000
0344. 3128N 08735W 06096 0380 026 015 091 215 015 06489 0000000000
0345 3126N 08738W 06096 0379 032 016 091 213 016 06489 0000000000