GFS Even Further EAST

[skysummit]

Why would the NHC have adjusted the track more to the right if they did not think the model was correct though? Looks as if they are pretty confident that this thing is going into Houston/Galveston.

they had it at matagorda for a long time, models will shift again. East or west, its a given.

still 48-hours till landfall.

thats 8 more runs.

Yup...plenty more time, lot more changes.

[deltadog03]

dwg...imho...your in houston right? i think you should be packing up and leaving town..

[Starburst]

So you are saying that it could shift back west. I had a false feeling of relief that I have not had in 2 days when seeing the post I thought maybe we could say it was pretty much set in stone that it was going to the upper coast but I guess I was wrong back to worrying. Thanks ya'll for answering so quickly. I should clarify that not that I want you upper Texans to get a cane either it's just nobody wants it. I hope that made sense.

[NorthGaWeather]

they had it at matagorda for a long time, models will shift again. East or west, its a given.

still 48-hours till landfall.

thats 8 more runs.

WNW jog has ended. Models will not move much.

So earlier today they weren't gonna move much when they were over Matagorda...but now that they have shifted further North into Houston, they will move around alot.

Which is it dwg.

[oneness]

Scary thing is that GFS model is still showing a major stall and looping path reversal about a day after landfall in E TX and NW LA, (except it looks even worse now, if that were possible).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Brent]

Scary thing is that GFS model is still showing a major stall and looping path reversal about a day after landfall in E TX and NW LA, (except it looks even worse now, if that were possible).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Lovely...

At least Katrina went away.

[LAwxrgal]

Scary thing is that GFS model is still showing a major stall and looping path reversal about a day after landfall in E TX and NW LA, (except it looks even worse now, if that were possible).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Perfect. Just perfect.

[oneness]

The question in my mind is which way are people going when they evac? Not NE and North I hope.

[crazycajuncane]

Here is what worries me... the foward speed.

Rita was moving at a decent clip of 13 mph, but has gone down to 9 mph per the 11pm advisory. This gives Rita more time to move north, something that bothers me just a little too much.

I'm already expecting tropical storm force winds, that much we can handle. I'm not prepared for the Hurricane force winds. Also, have you guys heard about Rita stalling out and styaing over the area for a few days?

I've heard per the local weather team that Rita may stall out and give us 5 - 15 inches of rain (if that scenario plays out).

[Starburst]

We are forecasted to get 6-12 inches and that is a long ways away from lanfall and on the west side of the storm so I cannot imagine the amount of rain you all will get.

[oneness]

If that GFS run is worth 2 cents then 15 inches may be conservative.

[Brent]

May be measuring that rain in feet if it stalls...

[PTrackerLA]

Geez if the GFS were to verify I'd probably experience hurricane conditions and Lake Charles would be devastated followed by severe flooding for a couple of days after that. What a nightmare, let's hope it's just the GFS up to it's old tricks, Louisiana has been beaten and bruised enough this year.

[skysummit]

May be measuring that rain in feet if it stalls...

That's correct...especially if the training affect starts over one area.

[MGC]

Looks like the GFS was right.....MGC