Looks like almost NW movement between 3:15z and 6:45z ...

[BReb]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Freeze the loop frames for 3:15 pre-eclipse and 6:45 post-eclipse. Looks somewhere between WNW and NW to me. And before anyone criticizes the wobble post, the general trend post-eclipse seems very relevant.

[SoupBone]

Maybe I'm just hazy eyed but all I see is what looks like a Due West movement at the end...

[dwg71]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Freeze the loop frames for 3:15 pre-eclipse and 6:45 post-eclipse. Looks somewhere between WNW and NW to me. And before anyone criticizes the wobble post, the general trend post-eclipse seems very relevant.

You'll get two camps on this W or NW, its clear to me that if you look only at the 3.5 hours from time eclipse started to finish its near NW.

[SoupBone]

I'm just really tired like I said...I'm having a tough time seeing through the point of the eclipse. I need to see it in a few hours so I can see it straight...

[BReb]

"Maybe I'm just hazy eyed but all I see is what looks like a Due West movement at the end"

Must not be looking at the right place. Make it so the images move manually, and wait for the 3:15 z. Place your finger in the middle of the eye at 3:15, then press the "next" button. You'll see that at 6:45 z the eye is almost due NW from where it was at 3:15z. At least my screen shows that.

[PTrackerLA]

She's definately heading WNW now. Better get some sleep.

[dwg71]

Rita has missed NHC mark by a large amount west, its at the same lattitude that is supposed to be at 7 hours from now. This will have huge implications if track holds. its held for 4 hours. 6-8 would be more reliable.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks a tad north of the next forecast point, but the movement still has the northern and southern jogs.

[SoupBone]

Rita has missed NHC mark by a large amount west, its at the same lattitude that is supposed to be at 7 hours from now. This will have huge implications if track holds. its held for 4 hours. 6-8 would be more reliable.

I know why I dont see it...I dont have the last frame i think...mine stops at 3 something UTC...someone told me I am missing a 645UTC...I refreshed it but i dont see it.

[dwg71]

Looks a tad north of the next forecast point, but the movement still has the northern and southern jogs.

It could very well be a jog but that point it is north of is a 12 hour point from the 10PM advisory. 8 hours would be more reliable.

[SoupBone]

Thats the problem...I didnt have the 645UTC for some reason...I got it now...it definately looks NW now to me... :shock:

[SoupBone]

Did anyone see the 715UTC randomly pop up? That was weird...it disappeared after I refreshed again...

[SoupBone]

I just got the 715UTC to come up again...its still NW unless that thing is just some sort of typo.

[BReb]

"I just got the 715UTC to come up again...its still NW unless that thing is just some sort of typo"

7:15 definitely has a northerly component compared to 6:45 though it may be more WNW. Every frame is significant in telling whether this is a wobble or a trend. In prior wobbles north, the ridge has pushed her back either due west or WSW within a couple of hours or so. Hasn't happened yet and it's been four hours of movement somewhere between WNW and NW.

[SoupBone]

Does it look like to you guys that the high is building stronger to her West which is why she might be getting pushed NW?

[dwg71]

"I just got the 715UTC to come up again...its still NW unless that thing is just some sort of typo"

7:15 definitely has a northerly component compared to 6:45 though it may be more WNW. Every frame is significant in telling whether this is a wobble or a trend. In prior wobbles north, the ridge has pushed her back either due west or WSW within a couple of hours or so. Hasn't happened yet and it's been four hours of movement somewhere between WNW and NW.

You can see on this loop the trough splitting the highs. That has developed the weakness. I dont think its a wobble.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[SoupBone]

She is breaking 25 way before 90...how is this going to affect landfall...wasn't she originally expected to turn later than this?

[FunkMasterB]

Definitely more north than it's "supposed" to have. That's good news for somebody, bad news for someone else. Either that, or it won't matter in the long run. Why are we doing this???

[dwg71]

She is breaking 25 way before 90...how is this going to affect landfall...wasn't she originally expected to turn later than this?

Lets see what 4am advisory says, I would expect them to move it to the east of galveston and if track verifies, then I would expect 10am to be in LA.

[deltadog03]

i don't see that happening..not so fast...