The bad news is that the track has shifted closer to Galveston
The good news is the following comments regarding weakening just released from the latest TWO during the hour. Still expecting a strong Cat 3 or minimal Cat 4 though and landfall though, so it will still be pretty bad. Let's hope that the below mentioned shear is stronger than what is forecasted and really tears this thing up!!!!!
from the latest TWO:
"...the GFS and ship models forecast significant
shear over Rita after 24 hr...which results in SHIPS calling for
significant weakening. Shear analyses from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin show about 12 kt of southerly shear caused by an
upper-level anticyclone east of Rita...and the large-scale models
suggest this pattern will continue until landfall. "
Good News and Bad News - Regarding Shear and Direction
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ConvergenceZone
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"The bad news is that the track has shifted closer to Galveston "
I consider the eastward shift good news- as long as we can nudge it over somewhere to the east of Galveston, as looks likely now. That way, the winds will be blowing SW over Galveston Bay, greatly reducing storm surge compared to what it would be if Rita hit south of Galveston.
I consider the eastward shift good news- as long as we can nudge it over somewhere to the east of Galveston, as looks likely now. That way, the winds will be blowing SW over Galveston Bay, greatly reducing storm surge compared to what it would be if Rita hit south of Galveston.
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HouTXmetro
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dwg71 wrote:Also the good news is the huge shifts east on each of the last three forecasts and then BEVAN says it should be noted we are still west of guideance. This storm will move to LA unless Rita shifts back due west.
I highly doubts she shifts back west, but now I'm thinking LA/TX border area.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
HouTXmetro wrote:dwg71 wrote:Also the good news is the huge shifts east on each of the last three forecasts and then BEVAN says it should be noted we are still west of guideance. This storm will move to LA unless Rita shifts back due west.
I highly doubts she shifts back west, but now I'm thinking LA/TX border area.
When he said west of guidance he meant the models are east, we will catch up if they verify.
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