Looks like almost NW movement between 3:15z and 6:45z ...

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LAwxrgal
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#21 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:22 am

dwg71 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:She is breaking 25 way before 90...how is this going to affect landfall...wasn't she originally expected to turn later than this?


Lets see what 4am advisory says, I would expect them to move it to the east of galveston and if track verifies, then I would expect 10am to be in LA.


LA is a little too far east. IMO.
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#22 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:31 am

Look at the 745 UTC...looks WNW/NW still...at what point do they call it a trend...it emerged from the eclipse going WNW/NW....it seems awfully far north for a TX landfall. I am too tired to think right now...
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#23 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:37 am

SoupBone wrote:Look at the 745 UTC...looks WNW/NW still...at what point do they call it a trend...it emerged from the eclipse going WNW/NW....it seems awfully far north for a TX landfall. I am too tired to think right now...


NHC has issued Hurricane Warning for LA.
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#24 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:37 am

dwg71 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Look at the 745 UTC...looks WNW/NW still...at what point do they call it a trend...it emerged from the eclipse going WNW/NW....it seems awfully far north for a TX landfall. I am too tired to think right now...


NHC has issued Hurricane Warning for LA.


Whats parts? Just SW LA?
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#25 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:40 am

huge shift east in forecast, storm is now forecast to be east of Galveston.
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#26 Postby BamaMan » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:41 am

I am afraid they may shift, the warnings that is, even further east in to the day on Thursday if this movement continues at all.
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#27 Postby BReb » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:42 am

Look at the water vapor loops:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Looks like the clouds that have been streaming down along the northern MS/AL border for the last day or so have disappeared. Looks like more weakening of the ridge.
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#28 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:43 am

i predicted east of galveston at 4 and LA at 10.
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#29 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:49 am

Oh man...Intercoastal City is almost due south of Lafayette... :eek:
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#30 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:57 am

BEVEN all but says in discussion that the track will shift further east...

"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE."
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#31 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:58 am

Yep...this is getting scary for us in Louisiana again...man I just wish she would make up her mind one way or the other...this is nerve racking.
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#32 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:02 am

SoupBone wrote:Yep...this is getting scary for us in Louisiana again...man I just wish she would make up her mind one way or the other...this is nerve racking.


According to D Ortt, Rita has slowed and started the turn earlier than predicted. He says he will have to shift future forecast east.

I would be very concerned about leaving SW LA and Cent LA as soon as possible. You might only have 48 hours.
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#33 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:07 am

dwg71 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Look at the 745 UTC...looks WNW/NW still...at what point do they call it a trend...it emerged from the eclipse going WNW/NW....it seems awfully far north for a TX landfall. I am too tired to think right now...


NHC has issued Hurricane Warning for LA.


There is no Hurricane Warning for LA at all... Read the advisory a little closer

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
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#34 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:11 am

typo meant watch, thanks for correction :D
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#35 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:23 am

dwg71 wrote:typo meant watch, thanks for correction :D


np didnt mean for that to sound jumpy.... been up all night.... doing the overnight shift on NHCWX tomorrow so i need to deprive sleep tonight so i can sleep during the day today and be alert tomorrow
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#36 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:51 am

dwg, are you thinking what I am thinking. I know we talked about this last night, That post you wrote earlier with the wv loop link, did you notice that none of the outflow was moving west. It looked like it was almost blocked. It is moving due north into sw and central LA. Could that be the weakness where Rita is headed? Opinions.
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#37 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:53 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:dwg, are you thinking what I am thinking. I know we talked about this last night, That post you wrote earlier with the wv loop link, did you notice that none of the outflow was moving west. It looked like it was almost blocked. It is moving due north into sw and central LA. Could that be the weakness where Rita is headed? Opinions.


The high has split, i think what is not as forecast is the one over TX is the dominant one. Which makes the entire LA coast vulnerable.
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#38 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:57 am

dwg71 wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:dwg, are you thinking what I am thinking. I know we talked about this last night, That post you wrote earlier with the wv loop link, did you notice that none of the outflow was moving west. It looked like it was almost blocked. It is moving due north into sw and central LA. Could that be the weakness where Rita is headed? Opinions.


The high has split, i think what is not as forecast is the one over TX is the dominant one. Which makes the entire LA coast vulnerable.


CBS local met just said the opposite. He said that other was dominant.

You be the judge:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
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#39 Postby canetracker » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:01 am

Image
Because of the weakness, have same feeling as you guys. SW LA to maybe Central LA hit!!! This thing is getting a bit scary.
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