Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#481 Postby **CronkPSU** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:36 am

907 now

#482 Postby **ALhurricane** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:38 am

With recon reporting concentric wind maxima, it was only a matter of time before an eyewall replacement cycle began. Latest recon is up to 907mb and reports the eye is cloud filled below flight level. This indicates the inner eye is probably beginning to collapse and a new eye will take over.

That is why we have seen the degraded IR imagery. It is very normal for this to happen in extremely intense cyclones. Two things worry me about this happening now..

It's further northward movement has kept it over the loop current longer. Also, the outflow remains very impressive. I still see no signs of shear impacting the cyclone. My worry is that once the ERC is complete, we will see another round of strengthening. I hope I am very wrong on this, but it may be going through its cycle at the wrong time, meaning that it will have plenty of a chance to reclaim some of its strength. I would be surprised if we see sub 900mb again however.

#483 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:42 am

ALhurricane wrote:With recon reporting concentric wind maxima, it was only a matter of time before an eyewall replacement cycle began. Latest recon is up to 907mb and reports the eye is cloud filled below flight level. This indicates the inner eye is probably beginning to collapse and a new eye will take over.

That is why we have seen the degraded IR imagery. It is very normal for this to happen in extremely intense cyclones. Two things worry me about this happening now..

It's further northward movement has kept it over the loop current longer. Also, the outflow remains very impressive. I still see no signs of shear impacting the cyclone. My worry is that once the ERC is complete, we will see another round of strengthening. I hope I am very wrong on this, but it may be going through its cycle at the wrong time, meaning that it will have plenty of a chance to reclaim some of its strength. I would be surprised if we see sub 900mb again however.

Any thoughts on tracking? Can we just about rule out a Rita landfall further south on the Texas coastline?

#484 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:50 am

Yeah ERC happening now is probably a bad thing. This thing is going to fire up again today after ERC.

Scorpion · #485 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:51 am

I agree. Katrina did this right before shore. Rita has plenty of more time to ramp up.

no advance · #486 Postby **no advance** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:56 am

She will probally start weakening. Unfornately she might drag a cat 5 surge with her

#487 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:59 am

What is the average time on a ERC ... Does anyone know?

The whole cycle from start to finish.

#488 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:03 am

Scorpion wrote:
Cookiely wrote:Looking weaker by the minute. Die Rita.

Oh yes its only 902 mb now storm cancel . The dry air cannot get into the system unless theres a good amount of shear.

I realized after I wrote this that it was probably an ERC beginnning. I have been hoping and praying she would just go poof. I know its unrealistic but you can't fault me for hoping.

HurricaneGirl · #489 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:18 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:What is the average time on a ERC ... Does anyone know?

The whole cycle from start to finish.

They usually take a day or so to complete.

oneness · #490 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:32 am

Scorpion · #491 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:35 am

"good news, its weakening"

#492 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:46 am

Scorpion wrote:

"good news, its weakening"

Is this normal during a ERC? I hope she doesn't strengthen again when she's finished

#493 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:58 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050922 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050922 1200 050923 0000 050923 1200 050924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 88.3W 26.0N 89.8W 26.8N 91.5W 27.9N 93.2W
BAMM 25.2N 88.3W 25.7N 89.8W 26.1N 91.2W 26.9N 92.7W
A98E 25.2N 88.3W 25.9N 89.6W 26.6N 91.0W 28.0N 92.5W
LBAR 25.2N 88.3W 25.8N 89.8W 26.7N 91.6W 27.9N 93.1W
SHIP 145KTS 143KTS 140KTS 128KTS
DSHP 145KTS 143KTS 140KTS 128KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050924 1200 050925 1200 050926 1200 050927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 94.7W 32.1N 95.6W 33.1N 95.2W 33.9N 96.8W
BAMM 28.1N 94.0W 30.1N 95.1W 30.6N 96.5W 31.4N 100.0W
A98E 29.3N 94.2W 30.8N 94.2W 31.2N 94.2W 33.4N 95.5W
LBAR 29.3N 94.8W 32.6N 95.6W 33.7N 92.7W 31.9N 90.2W
SHIP 113KTS 73KTS 31KTS 0KTS
DSHP 95KTS 34KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.5N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.3N LONM24 = 85.3W
WNDCUR = 145KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 150KT
CENPRS = 907MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 325NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 160NM

She is moving now 295 at 7kts not good for Louisiana as the center will be more closer to that state.I am starting to be more concerned that Louisiana may get much more.

Scorpion · #494 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:05 am

So ships shows a 145-150 mph landfall. Not good.

#495 Postby **feederband** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:16 am

I'm starting to wonder if it is a Texas storm at all...

no advance · #496 Postby **no advance** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:21 am

Just watched JB video he was talking about a stall just NW of Houston. He even mentioned the dreaded A word. Allison. Good luck to all you Texans.

Furious George · #497 Postby **Furious George** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:23 am

feederband wrote:I'm starting to wonder if it is a Texas storm at all...

All those models still seem to point near the Galveston area, but based on the size of the storm and continued expected changes in the forecast those in LA should be prepared.

#498 Postby **feederband** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:26 am

Furious George wrote:
feederband wrote:I'm starting to wonder if it is a Texas storm at all...

All those models still seem to point near the Galveston area, but based on the size of the storm and continued expected changes in the forecast those in LA should be prepared.

I just think a couple more normal stair steps and its projected nw curve and its a LA landfall... :eek:

#499 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:29 am

The lightning storm around her eye.

DESTRUCTION5 · #500 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:42 am

Right into Galveston Bay...All along I have said this ..If you stay on that Island or in the vicinity you will Die..The Complete Island Will be flooded and with a propsed 30 Ft Surge any inhabitants will be killed..Please GET OUT...Time is running out...

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