Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Look at this link, does it appear like the ridge is about to pinch off and seperate in central LA?

Last few frames have resumed NW track.

dwg, im not used to you agreeing with me, lol

im not an ivanhater hater .. We can agree to disagree on many things. And cherish the few things we do agree on.

[PTrackerLA]

The latest frame on the ghcc site shows a NNW jog. Folks she hasn't wobbled west in a LONG time. It's more like WNW wobbles with NW jogs. Hopefully in the 11am advisory the NHC will warn all of southern LA to be prepared because many aren't and might be caught off guard if she makes landfall here.

[Ivanhater]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Look at this link, does it appear like the ridge is about to pinch off and seperate in central LA?

Last few frames have resumed NW track.

dwg, im not used to you agreeing with me, lol

im not an ivanhater hater .. We can agree to disagree on many things. And cherish the few things we do agree on.

haaa so true

[Javlin]

Defnitly a better view dwg71.It would be nice to have a met chime in on our obs.But I am sure they have there hands full today.

[jpigott]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Look at this link, does it appear like the ridge is about to pinch off and seperate in central LA?

Last few frames have resumed NW track.

dwg, im not used to you agreeing with me, lol

im not an ivanhater hater .. We can agree to disagree on many things. And cherish the few things we do agree on.

haaa so true

here's a meteorlogical question for the mets. If Rita makes a NW move now b/c of ridge splitting ("pinching off" as mentioned above) as opposed to being pulled N by a trough, would this be a synoptical set up which would be more conducive to Rita maintaining her intensity. I ask this b/c i've seen in the past (most recently with Katrina) where the trough will weaken a storm when it pulls it N

[x-y-no]

I wasn't sure earlier about an ERC happening, but now I am. There are low clouds filling the eye now, the eyewall is shrinking and getting a little ragged, and the new wall is showing on IR.

[Ivanhater]

I wasn't sure earlier about an ERC happening, but now I am. There are low clouds filling the eye now, the eyewall is shrinking and getting a little ragged, and the new wall is showing on IR.

isnt this bad timing xy, it would be better for it to do that closer to land

[cjrciadt]

I wasn't sure earlier about an ERC happening, but now I am. There are low clouds filling the eye now, the eyewall is shrinking and getting a little ragged, and the new wall is showing on IR.

isnt this bad timing xy, it would be better for it to do that closer to land

Agreed. At least 36hrs still till landfall or more if she slows down

[Dave C]

I remember when some of the past cat 5 storms would go through an ERC you would see the eye look like a flat tire as it moved along. If this new eye after the cycle is really large that would be bad news as hurr. force winds would extend over a larger area and the core damage swath would be larger. Let's hope dry air keeps interfering as time goes by.

[cjrciadt]

913mb in the latest Vortex
Slighty OT the SST behind Rita in the Carrib has gone up 1C in the past two days.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[stormy1959]

Is that a trough in the midwest dipping down? Could Rita go further east than anyone thought possible if it is?

[storms in NC]

Okay I have watched the loops for the past 3 hours and it is going NW. Have to see if NHC will change it this afternoon more to the right.

[cjrciadt]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv
Great view of Rita the high pressure and the coming front.

[Stratosphere747]

Staying on this heading it would still hit just south of Galveston. But it looks as if the turn has begun about 6/10hrs earlier than expected. Now the wobbles are increasingly significant for Galveston to Western La.

[milankovitch]

Those lower HHC waters Rita was supposed to pass over, it's not going to happen with this track, the NHC track takes Rita over those high HHC (orange/yellow) till Friday morning.

[abajan]

Okay I have watched the loops for the past 3 hours and it is going NW. Have to see if NHC will change it this afternoon more to the right.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm with you. As a matter of fact, since early yesterday evening, it became pretty clear to me that this is going to be a Louisiana event (unfortunately).

[skysummit]

I've said Lake Charles from the beginning.

[SoupBone]

I unfortunately keep thinking closer to Lafayette fpr spme reason which would be really bad for me in Baton Rouge...I hope I am dead wrong...what kind of winds would I expect to get if she did make a Lafayette landing? I really think I should have my wife evacuate now.

[Stratosphere747]

Actually it is beginning to gain some structure back that it lost last night into this morning. The western side is starting to look better. Even looks with that to be back to a more WNW motion, online with the NHC track instead of being much further north than earlier today.

[x-y-no]

I wasn't sure earlier about an ERC happening, but now I am. There are low clouds filling the eye now, the eyewall is shrinking and getting a little ragged, and the new wall is showing on IR.

isnt this bad timing xy, it would be better for it to do that closer to land

Yes indeed. Plenty of time for the ERC to complete and some reintensification to occur.

Hate to say it, but Rita is looking better on IR already ...

5 hours ago:



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