Stan on the horizon?

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cycloneye
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Stan on the horizon?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:57 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Above is the 12z loop of GFS which shows a low developing in the tropical atlantic.I seen UKMET 00z showing something but in the 12z it does not show up.
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cjrciadt
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#2 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:04 pm

Heck I see three possible systems developing in that loop all CV storms.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:06 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Heck I see three possible systems developing in that loop all CV storms.


Yes I saw the others but I was concentrating in the one that develops into a hurricane.
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Patrick99
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#4 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:11 pm

Might we have a late September/early October Cape Verde season? That would be interesting.....though we have seen that before, I just can't remember which years.
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#5 Postby Frank2 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:24 pm

But the model run you mention recurves that developing low just east of the Virgin Islands...

Frank
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#6 Postby Rashid » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:50 pm

with the trough/ridge pattern in the tropical atlantic right now, I'd expect any CV cyclone to recurve unless it developed very far south, say 6-12N, 40W+.

I think we have a few days off after Rita plows ashore followed by another pulse of 2-4 storms in 14 days.
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Steve H.
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#7 Postby Steve H. » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:14 pm

No. Models are suggesting that ridging will be strong in the western atlantic for the next couple of weeks, with through dug out and camped in the west. Ridging will start building in the east US next week. GFS drives that storm right into strong high pressure. If that scenario played out, I would have to believe the GFS is playing its old early recurve game here. I think we may see the low associated with Philippe kick back westward and develop near the Bahamas; I don't see a lot of rest. 8-)
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