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djtil
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#561 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:52 pm

Hmm ... so that leaves the Canadian and the Euro as westward outliers.


and gfdl i think....wish has moved a little west, especially late in the period.
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#562 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:55 pm

yeah, the gfdl has shifted west a little..both on landfall Galveston, and is further west over north TX
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#563 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:59 pm

DEVORAK T# wind speed plot:

Image

It moved upward for a few hours but has just begun to slowly fall again ...

Date : 22 SEP 2005 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 25:38:00 N Lon : 89:06:54 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 915.9mb/143.0kt
Last edited by oneness on Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#564 Postby jpigott » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:07 pm

great, it looks like the DORVAK T#s are going back up
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#565 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:20 pm

Definitely recovering the cold tops in the western core on IR now.

Image

Image
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#566 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:31 pm

I can't believe that I'm getting better info from Ch. 13 over 2,11 and 26.

They just showed a great graphic on the motion over the last 12hrs. It HAS to turn or else it is going to hit south of Galveston. There is no argument in the past movement over the last 12hrs as everybody has seen. But that movement is directly at Galveston. The NHC does call for that true NW turn within 24-36 hrs, which would take it more inline towards Beaumont and Western LA.

The question is when and how sharp?
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#567 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:33 pm

strat...im casting my lot with the gfdl and expect a direct galveston hit.....intensity is the biggest question mark now imo.
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#568 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:35 pm

statro...did you see the new GFDL?? 12Z run? im not so sure its gonna take a big NW turn at all...
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#569 Postby BamaMan » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:35 pm

Once again she will be east and north of the next NHC forecast plot.
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#570 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:36 pm

it's heading straight for SW LA at this point if you extrapolate the path out....not Galveston :roll:
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#571 Postby oneness » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:36 pm

Image
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#572 Postby gboudx » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:36 pm

deltadog03 wrote:yeah, the gfdl has shifted west a little..both on landfall Galveston, and is further west over north TX


Have you read the 12:30 Special Weather discussion from the DFW NWS? They've tempered things back a bit due to the eastward shift. I wonder what the afternoon discussion will be like with these models shifting Rita closer to us? Must be giving them fits.
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#573 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:37 pm

latest SHIPS landfalls around 120mph...from 149 at 0hr.
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#574 Postby BamaMan » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:38 pm

boca_chris wrote:it's heading straight for SW LA at this point if you extrapolate the path out....not Galveston :roll:


I agree and if she continues we may soon start to see a turn towards the NW to N sooner. this, IMHO, will be a central LA to NOLA landfall
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#575 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:38 pm

Hopefully she will weaken more than forecasted. I know it will still be a very formidable storm, but at least they are predicting shear and she is getting ready to run into some slightly cooler SST's.
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#576 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:40 pm

Hopefully she will weaken more than forecasted. I know it will still be a very formidable storm, but at least they are predicting shear and she is getting ready to run into some slightly cooler SST's.
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#577 Postby milankovitch » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:42 pm

Not good pressure down to 914 in last recon. Eye-Eyewall temp increasing.
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#578 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:42 pm

Have you read the 12:30 Special Weather discussion from the DFW NWS? They've tempered things back a bit due to the eastward shift. I wonder what the afternoon discussion will be like with these models shifting Rita closer to us? Must be giving them fits.


yeah...the difference betweent the center going just east or just west makes the forecast insanely different.


as for the point about extrapolation....current extrapolation has a galveston his, not la........if this is a poll.
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#579 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:42 pm

the NHC must be going bonkers right now....Texas may not even get the brunt of this storm anymore the way it is looking. SW LA to NOLA is going to get it :eek:

and that was not in the cone yesterday :eek:
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#580 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:47 pm

SW LA to NOLA is going to get it


not based on model consensus......only the outlier ukmet has this solution...most others have galveston
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