Not a wobble thread, but Rita will miss the next forecast pt

[dwg71]

oh boy at the rate we are going the NHC is going to get ripped for this...

Everybody is saying Texas, Texas...however its LA/NOLA that looks to be in trouble

If UKMET pans out, this could be the straw that breaks the camel's(NOLA)
back (levees).

This is shaping up as insult to injury to the umpteenth degree.

[Ixolib]

oh boy at the rate we are going the NHC is going to get ripped for this...

Everybody is saying Texas, Texas...however its LA/NOLA that looks to be in trouble

If UKMET pans out, this could be the straw that breaks the camel's(NOLA)
back (levees).

This is shaping up as insult to injury to the umpteenth degree.

Wondering if someone could summarize the info that has led to the post above. Been out for a while and seem to have lost touch with the situation... Please??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

boca, I have to agree. Don't know how exactly how far east she is of the next plot but is due east as of now. How critical are these wnw movements to nw wobbles movements throughout the day? Will that have implications of a turn to the nnw or north any sooner rather than later as she gains more latitude?

[storms in NC]

I just got new glasses. I better go back cause it still looks like it is going 300 + deg to me. Oh well I am just blind

[Canelaw99]

Might need some new spects it's 25.4'N@ 11:00AM hehe

*wipes off eyeballs* whoopsy - that's what I get for looking up stuff while on the phone LOL Thank ya for the correction

[SoupBone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Hey guys looking at this does it look like the high is splitting allowing an open door if you will into Louisiana....maybe I am seeing it wrong.

[timNms]

I'm getting concerned about this!

[HurricaneGirl]

It is already missing the next point, even after they changed them earlier.

[dhweather]

It is already missing the next point, even after they changed them earlier.

Yes it is, and dhweather is getting more concerned.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SoupBone]

If it continuously misses the points like it is doing even after they change the track every 3 hours...what does that mean as far as a more easterly track? I mean it is already a LA/TX landing...if it keeps missing it each time then wouldn't it move way more east than anyone is thinking?

[stormy1959]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


Looks to me western Louisiana then NE. I just dont see a Texas hit from this map. I know much more goes into forecasting tracks but this looks like a no brainer.

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


Looks to me western Louisiana then NE. I just dont see a Texas hit from this map. I know much more goes into forecasting tracks but this looks like a no brainer.

you are probalbly right. me and ivanhater are looking at the floaters and it keeps moving north of the forecast points. like we have told each other since day one, central Louisiana hit likely.

[gatorcane]

I hope the NHC acknowledges the NW movement now in the 5pm and shifts the track
right...it's not a Texas storm anymore. Clearly its a LA storm. If it heads for
Central LA, then there will be much less time to evacuate as the storm will hit
much sooner

[Javlin]

I have been away new points
19:45UTC 25.92'N 89.38'W this center of Rita
_________25.77'N 89.55'W this S eyewall and W eyewall appears this is how the last set of cors. came from the NHC

[NFLnut]

I agree. If you watch the image posted above, it appears to be going right into central LA. I've been watching it since 11:00am and have been thinking that the NHC is smokin' crack. It has been a good 30 - 50 miles east of each forecast points which has meant for about 5.5 hours that it is no longer a TX storm!

Having said that, I still think that Houstonians should continue with their evac plans, but I think they are going to get lucky.

To borrow from my daytime activity's motto: "The trend is your friend" (at least in this case, for Houston).

God bless the people of LA!

[Javlin]

I wanted to add that from the 17:15 time it's been .3N and .3W to the 19:45 time.She is going NW the question is does she turn N somewhere.

[philsmith76]

link showing rita north of forecast point. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

[philsmith76]

link showing rita north of forecast point and pressure falling http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

[Javlin]

I have been away new points
19:45UTC 25.92'N 89.38'W this center of Rita
_________25.77'N 89.55'W this S eyewall and W eyewall appears this is how the last set of cors. came from the NHC

Looks like they are using the eyewall cors. for location
25.8'N and 89.5'W @4:00PM per NHC
25.84'N and 89.7'W @ 20:45 S eyewall and W eyewall

[Javlin]

23:15UTC 26'N and 90'W