Now she is a Louisiana Storm

[jax]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the current sattalite loops and checking the trajectory...
This storm would have to keeps it's current track untill landfall
to actually make a Texas landfall... and the official forcast is for a
gradual turn to the WNW (which it statred about 10 hours ago) and NW.

Louisiana has the potential to be in far more bad a situation than Texas.

Texas will be effected by this storm... but based on what i'm seeing...
it's all going to be North winds. All the Bays will empty out as the storm
approaches... and the worst part would be all the people mad that they
ever evacuated in the first place... A good example of that is all the
people that didn'e evacuate from NO for Katrina after the whole Ivan
episode...

JMHO

[TSmith274]

Well, I'm in New Orleans at the moment... on the westbank, which stayed dry during Katrina. However, WDSU in New Orleans just reported that the London Ave. Canal breach is now leaking again, and pretty fast. They showed it, and I'd guess about 10 gallons per second is coming through that limestone patch. This, coupled with our governor telling us to write our social security numbers on our forearm... makes me want to leave.

My question is simple... based on current trends, what can be expected in New Orleans?

[gatorcane]

Looks like Louisiana is going to get the brunt of this storm...NOLA will be impacted with high winds and heavy rain from feeder bands

[Nimbus]

There is no good place for this storm to come in.
The population of Lafayette for example is near 200,000 and the only safe evacuation route is inland.
Louisiana media is all over the storm now so people will be doing the best they can all along the coast to evacuate.
There will be runoff coming down the Mississippi that will not help the levee situation in NOLA regardless of Rita's exact track.

[duris]

Well, I'm in New Orleans at the moment... on the westbank, which stayed dry during Katrina. However, WDSU in New Orleans just reported that the London Ave. Canal breach is now leaking again, and pretty fast. They showed it, and I'd guess about 10 gallons per second is coming through that limestone patch. This, coupled with our governor telling us to write our social security numbers on our forearm... makes me want to leave.

My question is simple... based on current trends, what can be expected in New Orleans?

I told a friend returning to Algiers that there's no way I'd be close to the city right now. I lived(d) in Lakeview, and after seeing my home on Monday, I'm just glad we didn't stay. We have a client who says there are problems in the levee system that are not being reported. I don't know where or what, but I wouldn't go back until after hurricane season even if I could. I know this doesn't give you a meteorlogical answer, but I've also seen Algiers flood when I lived there just from the canals and wouldn't chance it myself, even though I'm not seeing anything showing trends further than central LA, which I've been so lucky to relocate to. Waiting now to see whether to leave here too.

[sandy73]

Well, I'm in New Orleans at the moment... on the westbank, which stayed dry during Katrina. However, WDSU in New Orleans just reported that the London Ave. Canal breach is now leaking again, and pretty fast. They showed it, and I'd guess about 10 gallons per second is coming through that limestone patch. This, coupled with our governor telling us to write our social security numbers on our forearm... makes me want to leave.

My question is simple... based on current trends, what can be expected in New Orleans?

Do you have a link to this ?

[timNms]

If I were in New Orleans, I would get out now. If the storm doesn't come near, you haven't lost anything other than some time. But if it does come near, you will be out of harm's way.

[duris]

If I were in New Orleans, I would get out now. If the storm doesn't come near, you haven't lost anything other than some time. But if it does come near, you will be out of harm's way.

May be headed Seminary way myself if Lafayette needs to evacuate. My parents in the metropolis of Improve should be OK this time around.

[skysummit]

Well, I'm in New Orleans at the moment... on the westbank, which stayed dry during Katrina. However, WDSU in New Orleans just reported that the London Ave. Canal breach is now leaking again, and pretty fast. They showed it, and I'd guess about 10 gallons per second is coming through that limestone patch. This, coupled with our governor telling us to write our social security numbers on our forearm... makes me want to leave.

My question is simple... based on current trends, what can be expected in New Orleans?

Do you have a link to this ?

This was reported on WDSU, Channel 6 in New Orleans. Also, LA Hwy 1 south of Leeville going to Grand Isle is already getting covered with water.

[audioslave8]

yep!!! u got that right Jax. The rule of thumb is north and especially east of the center is your worst storm surge tornados winds and rain usually so southwest LA will get the worst of it on this more east track. Lets just hope the track does not shift too much more to the east because i'm afraid most of NO WILL BE UNDER WATER AGAIN!!! There already supposed to get 2 to 4 inches of rain. If it jogs to the right some more we are talking probably 4 to 8 easily especiallly if she stalls out. I hate to hear that about the leaks already being reported . Not good at all.

[hicksta]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

[skysummit]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

Uhh.....storm surge coming up the Miss. River and pouring into Lake Ponchartrain? Plus flooding rains? NOLA will get flooded again.

[dwg71]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

Have you seen the UKMET, which actually has its current heading. The others are too far west already. UKMET calls fro Central LA landfall in 48 hours.

[gatorcane]

forget the models...look at the satellite pics....it has more of N component:

From a CNN article:

An estimated 1.8 million people are being told to evacuate Gulf Coast communities as Hurricane Rita threatens a large swathe of Texas and Louisiana. Many Texan evacuees were caught in traffic jams and the state opened southbound carriageways to northbournd traffic. Rita remains extremely dangerous despite being downgraded to a Category 4 storm. It is forecast to make landfall Saturday between Galveston, Texas, and the Texas-Louisiana border.

umm...I think this will change drastically soon. It will hit farther east and much sooner

[audioslave8]

because...... just a little bit of rain can devistate NO again and when the storm comes in the weaker side which will get eroded quicker as we have already seen will be the west side. the east side will be the monster from this storm. you can already see it on the satellite pics. thats where all your rainfall is at. so only extreme eastern texas counties will see some bad stuff for sure but the worst is all to the right of the center. after seeing all the vortexes in the eye of this storm it will produce abundunt amount of tornados in mostly LA did i get it right guys???

[jax]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

look at the SAT loops... she is drawing a straight bead line to the TX / LA
boarder now... and even the NHC is saying it's going to turn NE eventually...

unless she starts a more westerly course right now.... TX is out of
the woods now... when i say out of the woods... i'm talking about
catasatrophic damage... i don't see that happening... Sure, There
will be some downed trees, power outages, stuff like that...
But nothing like the effect of being on the estern side of one of
these monsters...

[jax]

Models are still near east galv and west beamount. Don't know how you get new orleans out of that

look at the SAT loops... she is drawing a straight bead line to the TX / LA
boarder now... and even the NHC is saying it's going to turn NE eventually...

unless she starts a more westerly course right now.... TX is out of
the woods now... when i say out of the woods... i'm talking about
catasatrophic damage... i don't see that happening... Sure, There
will be some downed trees, power outages, stuff like that...
But nothing like the effect of being on the estern side of one of
these monsters...

[hicksta]

Joe b has it at galv. The ukmet isn't really the best model. The nhc has around e galv who knows

[djtil]

she is/was/and will be a texas storm.......



gfdl shout out.

[jax]

Joe b has it at galv. The ukmet isn't really the best model. The nhc has around e galv who knows

it's becoming more and more obvious...
unless she has a strong and prolonged western jog....
this is a Louisiana storm...