Growing Concern for LA and NOLA

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:15 pm

Rita's path is shifting more East despite the models. There's a point where you got to stop relying on the models and simply look where it is heading. My concern is growing.

Thoughts and comments welcome.

jamima · #2 Postby **jamima** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:22 pm

I agree!!! I think they're just afraid to put panic in people but they need to do something by the next forecast they're running out of time. No telling what this thing is gonna do its already going through the ridge and that was never done before!!!

jax · #3 Postby **jax** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:25 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=75276

#4 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:27 pm

I started wondering if this could be a La storm starting yesterday afternoon. She was going right of forecast pts then. Each time they put a new track up she would go right of those again. I guess climatology may have something to do with it? How many storms of this nature have hit the Texas coast this late in Sept in the last 50 yrs? I still feel SW La will get this one. (Hope not, but the signs are there)

djtil · #5 Postby **djtil** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:29 pm

this info seems blatantly false at best. current motion is still mean 280 or so taking it straight to ne texas.....sounding alarms like this for nola seems irresponsible.

specualting whether she will turn towards la or nola is one thing....saying that it has happened when it hasnt is shouting fire in a theater.

#6 Postby **patsmsg** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:34 pm

djtil wrote:this info sees blatantly false at best. current motion is still mean 180 or so taking it straight to ne texas.....sounding alarms like this for nola seems irresponsible.

I beg to differ...

Go here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's NOT 180 degrees. And if you check the "Trop Fcst Pts" box you will see the divergance from the forcast track. I've been doing this for several days. For the past 24 hours or so, it's all been to the right of each new forecast track.

#7 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:36 pm

mvtrucking wrote:I started wondering if this could be a La storm starting yesterday afternoon. She was going right of forecast pts then. Each time they put a new track up she would go right of those again. I guess climatology may have something to do with it? How many storms of this nature have hit the Texas coast this late in Sept in the last 50 yrs? I still feel SW La will get this one. (Hope not, but the signs are there)

I think you are right. I just got home from there this morning at 5:30 am. Long drive. I wasn't going home till Sat but something came up at home here and I had to get back.

We just got the BIG trees out of the front yard and got lights Monday. Oh that was so nice to have lights.

Any way I think this is really going to hurt alot of people in La if it does go there. I will be back down there soon

#8 Postby **patsmsg** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:37 pm

djtil wrote:...current motion is still mean 180 or so taking it straight to ne texas....

BTW, what do you mean here. Isn't due west 270 and North 360(or 0)? How do you get NE texas from 180? Maybe I don't understand what you mean?

djtil · #9 Postby **djtil** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:42 pm

180 was a typo...meant 280.....couldnt get the edit in due to server problems....

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:47 pm

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/rita.jpg">

I've taken the latest satellite image from NOAA with their NHC plots
and highlighted in blue the first three plots to make them easier to see.

Rita is north and east of where she was forecast to be.

A minor change here makes for a significant change in the arc/radius
of this, putting Louisiana in much more danger.

I hope the NHC puts MS under a TS Warning at 4:00 - there are people living in tents by their flooded out homes that need to get notice of what
is going on and get out of these low lying areas.

djtil · #11 Postby **djtil** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:52 pm

well the 5pm still has ne tx ...although galveston would miss the brunt if it turns as forecast.

#12 Postby **tndefender** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:57 pm

MSNBC just reported that southeast Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi is now under a tropical storm warning. They said this does include NOLA.

#13 Postby **tndefender** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:59 pm

MSNBC just reported that southeast Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi is now under a tropical storm warning. They said this does include NOLA.

TS Zack · #14 Postby **TS Zack** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:27 pm

Mouth of the Pearl!

#15 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:23 pm

It is going to be close to Morgan City. Maybe just to the west of there.But the more North she goes you are looking at a La landfall. It is going to be one of thoes last min things just wait and see. Just have bad feelings on this. Oh and I realllllllyyyyyyy hope that I am so very wrong. I would be glad to eat BBQ crow. :roll:

huricanwatcher · #16 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:25 pm

3 inches or more of rain in NO ... the levies are coming down again and probably be worse flooding this time around....... hope all have left..!!!!

#17 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:47 pm

Last 1/2 hr. it has taken jog back to west or wnw

#18 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:48 pm

tailgater wrote:Last 1/2 hr. it has taken jog back to west or wnw

nope, its actually bumped even more north

huricanwatcher · #19 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:49 pm

bump north bump west...... god you 2 this can go on all night... get over it already

shes gonna land where god almighty puts her....... (and i aint no bible pusher)

djtil · #20 Postby **djtil** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:50 pm

bump north bump west...... god you 2 this can go on all night... get over it already

lol....or just call it like it is....300 degrees mean.

Growing Concern for LA and NOLA

Growing Concern for LA and NOLA

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