Cat 5 will be back at 11...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4430
Age: 44
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Cat 5 will be back at 11...

#1 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:33 pm

Look out I know this is like beating a dead horse but Rita is in a full blow strengthing phase once again...I say 900 and 160 MPH by 11:00 All the way to the coast...And the thought of this stall stuff? OMG...Katrina move over Rita is bigger and badder and she's gonna Rip TX a new landscape!
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#2 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:36 pm

I don't know about 11, but at some point tonight I'm expecting a Cat 5 again. 911 mb is just too low.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Praxus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:19 pm

#3 Postby Praxus » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:37 pm

Looking at the latest sat pics, I agree she is strengthening. Starting to look
like she did last night.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#4 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:37 pm

It will not maintain cat 5 intensity to the coast, IMO.

We may see it hit cat 5 again tonight as it moves over a warm eddy, but afterword dry air and lower SST/heat content should get this back down to a 4. My landfall intensity call is between 135 to 145 mph. Also keep in mind another ERC seems likely before landfall.

We saw the weakening that took place today because of a cool eddy and an ERC, and we will probably see it again before landfall.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:37 pm

They will issue a special statement before 7.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

Re: Cat 5 will be back at 11...

#6 Postby f5 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:37 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Look out I know this is like beating a dead horse but Rita is in a full blow strengthing phase once again...I say 900 and 160 MPH by 11:00 All the way to the coast...And the thought of this stall stuff? OMG...Katrina move over Rita is bigger and badder and she's gonna Rip TX a new landscape!


she appearing to be missing Texas
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#7 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:39 pm

jkt21787 wrote:It will not maintain cat 5 intensity to the coast, IMO.

We may see it hit cat 5 again tonight as it moves over a warm eddy, but afterword dry air and lower SST/heat content should get this back down to a 4. My landfall intensity call is between 135 to 145 mph. Also keep in mind another ERC seems likely before landfall.

We saw the weakening that took place today because of a cool eddy and an ERC, and we will probably see it again before landfall.


I defintely think it'll weaken, but I think a Cat 3 is unlikely... I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this come in as a Strong 4.

Also keep in mind the INSANELY low pressure is going to enhance the damage as well...
0 likes   
#neversummer

djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#8 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:39 pm

just looking at pressure one would think so....but would need to tack on a huge wind increase in that amount of time.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#9 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:41 pm

So NHC seems to be sticking to their forecast. I'm just worried if she picks up a more northerly component, which is forecasted, it will slam into SW Louisiana. Just not sure what to think right now, under hurricane warning here, just watching and waiting...
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#10 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:42 pm

Pressure up to 913, cat 5 cancel. :lol:
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#11 Postby Droop12 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:42 pm

If dry air was going to put a dent in Rita, it would have happened already. IMO, shes on her way back to a Cat 5 tonight. I expect landfall intensity will be near 145mph. Only thing that should get to Rita is the overall, less oceanic heat content near shore...and possibly alittle shear.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: Cat 5 will be back at 11...

#12 Postby Ixolib » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:43 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Look out I know this is like beating a dead horse but Rita is in a full blow strengthing phase once again...I say 900 and 160 MPH by 11:00 All the way to the coast...And the thought of this stall stuff? OMG...Katrina move over Rita is bigger and badder and she's gonna Rip TX a new landscape!


Perhaps, but it may not be TX that get's the new landscape. LA is to the right...
0 likes   

Viper252
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:09 pm

#13 Postby Viper252 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:46 pm

Rita will Bomb out again before it reaches landfall with the warm water next the shore. It will be a minimum Cat 5 at least when it hits.
Last edited by Viper252 on Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#14 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:51 pm

Also keep in mind the INSANELY low pressure is going to enhance the damage as well...


elaborate? why would pressure in and of itself enhance damage?
0 likes   

jopatura
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 139
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:39 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#15 Postby jopatura » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:54 pm

I don't expect another EWRC before landfall. She appears to be setting herself up quite nicely and I expect to see major bombing over the night tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Then she'll either keep steady or slowly decrease until she hits land in about 24-36 hours. Depending how big she gets tonight, I expect minimal Cat 5/very strong Cat 4 at landfall.
0 likes   

Viper252
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:09 pm

#16 Postby Viper252 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:00 pm

Yes, but it wont weaken at all since their is warm water that is around the coast. Its possible it could bomb out even more before then. 165-170 Cat 5 storm possibly.
0 likes   

NFLnut
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:37 pm

#17 Postby NFLnut » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:09 pm

She'll more likely sustain her current strength or even weaken slightly. In just a few hours, she'll start the effects of land interaction, and those feeders will run out of a significant amount of fuel. Sorry all you "Cat 5 Bandwagoners," but the bomb won't happen (fortunately)!
0 likes   

User avatar
Downdraft
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 906
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 8:45 pm
Location: Sanford, Florida
Contact:

#18 Postby Downdraft » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:23 pm

A lot of these posts need disclaimers applied. If your saying Rita will be a CAT 5 at landfall then it's your opinion and not an offical forecast. Let's not scare the living heck out of people unless it's fact! They have enough to be scared about as it is.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4430
Age: 44
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#19 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:26 pm

Downdraft wrote:A lot of these posts need disclaimers applied. If your saying Rita will be a CAT 5 at landfall then it's your opinion and not an offical forecast. Let's not scare the living heck out of people unless it's fact! They have enough to be scared about as it is.


They should be scared...This is no Joke..Difference in a Cat 4 or 5 won't matter if you stay...Won't matter if you go...No matter what its coming and its going to DESTROY things...
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5240
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#20 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:45 pm

alot of people I disagree with calling for a cat5 at landfall with no logic in their reasoning.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Team Ghost and 39 guests