Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cjrciadt]

[cjrciadt]

[milankovitch]

913mb pressure dropping

[robjay]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

All the models here except NHC are showing some stationary potential, one just offshore and others onshore.

[BigA]

The 42001 bouy, 180 miles south of southewest past Louisiana, is reporting very bad conditions.

The sustained winds are 89 mph, while gusts are 112 mph. This bouy, as of 2:50 central time (when the last info was issued) also had waves of 34 feet.

[JPmia]

Looks like landfall will be between Galveston/East Bay and the TX/LA state line or just east of that. The inland cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, and possibly Lake Charles are larger cities under the gun in my opinion. It appears that immediate coastal population is lower there. Not sure of the number of oil platforms up there.

[JPmia]

Looks like landfall will be between Galveston/East Bay and the TX/LA state line or just east of that. The inland cities of Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, and possibly Lake Charles are larger cities under the gun in my opinion. It appears that immediate coastal population is lower there. Not sure of the number of oil platforms up there.

[Praxus]

Looking stronger than earlier today

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[dwg71]

NHC 4PM track another shift east 40-50 miles Sabine Pass. If it keeps missing marks they will continue to shift east.

[dwg71]

NHC 4PM track another shift east 40-50 miles Sabine Pass. If it keeps missing marks they will continue to shift east.

[truballer#1]

[HurryKane]

NHC 4PM track another shift east 40-50 miles Sabine Pass. If it keeps missing marks they will continue to shift east.

It just looks like they shifted it east. They did not. In the 4 PM discussion:

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 knots.
The forecast track has not changed and Rita is expected to be
steered toward the west-northwest and northwest toward the
Upper-Texas or the western Louisiana coasts as the high shifts
eastward.

That's off the wunderground site, that's why it's not in all caps.

[Starburst]

so the high has not moved yet? anyone have a map of the high I thought it was gone already.

[gatorcane]

I don't want to bash the NHC, but they don't even acknowledge the NW wobbles and the fact that it has missed every forecast point to the east today. They nonchalantly add that a hit is possible now in SW LA but yet just a day or so ago it WAS ALL Texas. Then rather than moving the line they expand the cone to cover more of LA.

[Javlin]

so the high has not moved yet? anyone have a map of the high I thought it was gone already.

I have a WV loop that might show it you see something over TX being tugged to to NE.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim16wv.html

[jasons2k]

so the high has not moved yet? anyone have a map of the high I thought it was gone already.

I have a WV loop that might show it you see something over TX being tugged to to NE.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim16wv.html

Looks to me like the trough is lifting and the High over the SE US is building. Local Met here in Houston mentioned this - he said Rita may move more NW for awhile, then get pushed west again.

[Javlin]

Yea jschlitz what I see I think is a high(dk area) over TX hence the extremely high temps lately getting squished and pulled NE by the troph.My interpetation may be wrong cause I have a hard time seeing these highs for sure.Just an ob on my part may be way off base.

[bvigal]

Change in predicted track over 12 hours.

Taking 5pm advisory prediction for storm location on 24th at 6z, and comparing to 5am advisory for same date/time.

Advisory # #21 - 21z #19 - 9z
Position 29.2N 93.8W 28.8N 94.3W
Port Arthur 41 67
Galveston 58 42
Lake Charles 70 104
Houston 90 82
Lafayette 113 148
Matagorda 114 85
Morgan City 139 172
Port O Connor 161 128
Houma 166 197
New Orleans 192 225
Grand Isle 202 231
Corpus Christi 205 171

Sorry about the columns not lining up. I tried to search for instructions, but no response. I someone can give me a hint... I'll post these again as they change tonight.

[Nimbus]

Good upper level wind comparison on this old thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=75119&start=0

[deltadog03]

nimbus, or whoever said there will be a weakness that would pull her north is a smart cookie....look at that and see what is btwn the 2 highs...there is a weakness that has been tugging on rita for majority of the day. HOWEVER, that weakness is being ejected and the TX rigde is moving of to the ENE...so, i am begining to think that she might go back a litte closer to due west for a bit will the high slides out of the gom....tell me what yall thinkl....here is the map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html