How Much Will Rita Weaken??

[ConvergenceZone]

last discussion mentioning that she is expected to continue to weaken, but expected to still be a dangerous cat 3 at landfall. Just curious if any thing she may weaken then that, since she's weakened alread more than expected due to shear and slightly cooler temps?? Personally I think the weakest she may get is a strong cat 2.... I think that's possible considering how fast she dropped from 175 mph to 150 mph just overnight. It's probably more likely that she'll be a mid to strong cat 3 though by the time she reaches land.

[Big-Iguana]

Ya think so? Dvorak numbers, satellite and falling pressure says not the case.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/RITAP.GIF

Rita Round #2 coming up... cat 5 or bust

[ConvergenceZone]

check the latest discussion put out by the NHC, it's not strengthening it's weakening...

[jpigott]

check the latest discussion put out by the NHC, it's not strengthening it's weakening...

check out the latest recon vortex, pressures are down, winds should respond

[milankovitch]

Iguna's right the IR has dramatically improved since this morning and the pressure is down to 914 from 915. NHC's discussion was put out 5 hours ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

check the latest discussion put out by the NHC, it's not strengthening it's weakening...

check out the latest recon vortex, pressures are down, winds should respond

yep, they responded all right, from 150 mph down to 145 mph, quite a response.

[Florida_TSR]

They're down even lower now most likely.

[Fodie77]

check the latest discussion put out by the NHC, it's not strengthening it's weakening...

check out the latest recon vortex, pressures are down, winds should respond

yep, they responded all right, from 150 mph down to 145 mph, quite a response.

winds can take hours to respond to pressure drops

[djtil]

she is currently at around 140mph per recon and holding steady.....im guessing she drops to 110kts by landfall. not necessarily "officially"...but based on the last couple of recons.


ps...the nhc discussion mentioned the possibility of short term strengthening as the reason they left her at 125kts instead of the recon aided number closer to 115....fyi to the nhc bashers.

[Scorpion]

Look at the IR, and the pressure has dropped.

[Scorpion]

she is currently at around 140mph per recon and holding steady.....im guessing she drops to 110kts by landfall. not necessarily "officially"...but based on the last couple of recons.


ps...the nhc discussion mentioned the possibility of short term strengthening as the reason they left her at 125kts instead of the recon aided number closer to 115....fyi to the nhc bashers.

You have no credibility. You downplay EVERY storm. The pressure is 911-913 mb. And has an improving satellite signature. The only reason the winds arent responding is the ERC. But you can have your invisible shear.

[arcticfire]

Ya know , I'm beginning to doubt she is going to weaken. Dunno why but just watching her she seems to be gearing up again like yesterday. If I were a supersticious man I'd say she is intentinoally heading for our oil rigs and timing herself to be really strong when she reaches them.

Guess my gutt feeling with Rita is she is not going to behave. Think NHC puts far to much faith in the cooler eddies chopping her legs out from under her.

[Scorpion]

Look at the sat loop. This is no 140 mph storm. http://maps.wunderground.com/data/640x4 ... r_anim.gif

[djtil]

lol...ignoring recon, bashing the nhc, claiming conspiracies is the non credible reaction to every storm.

recon = 140mph
nhc = mentioning shear.

i have no credibility to gain or lose, im just repeating reality.

[arcticfire]

lol...ignoring recon, bashing the nhc, claiming conspiracies is the non credible reaction to every storm.

recon = 140mph
nhc = mentioning shear.

i have no credibility to gain or lose, im just repeating reality.

not to quibble , but your repeating the offical reports , your not nessisarly repeating "reality".

[djtil]

not to quibble , but your repeating the offical reports , your not nessisarly repeating "reality".

thats what i mean about conspiracy.....if recon finds 140mph over and over...its obviously wrong.

if models forecast shear and the nhc uses that in their forecast reasoning...they are wrong.

a storm can only strengthen or go where its not forecast to go.......anything else gets people up in arms.

[arcticfire]

not to quibble , but your repeating the offical reports , your not nessisarly repeating "reality".

thats what i mean about conspiracy.....if recon finds 140mph over and over...its obviously wrong.

if models forecast shear and the nhc uses that in their forecast reasoning...they are wrong.

a storm can only strengthen or go where its not forecast to go.......anything else gets people up in arms.

I'll play , but only cause I'm in the mood to argue since I never said conspiracy.

Recon does a great job , recon can however miss the strongest winds. This is why recon wind speed is not always used as the only number to determine strength. Thats largly a matter of luck if they catch the highest winds or not.

Models ... oh lord here we go. Firstly NHC has been saying for the past few days it should weaken as it passed over cooler water. Keep in mind they also admit their ability predict strength is infintial at best. Thus all calls on how strong it should be should be take with a grain of salt. Acording to the NHC a few days back it should have never got to cat5.

As to track , exactly which forcast landfall are you gonna use to say everyone expects it to go elsewhwer ? 120hr? 72hr ? 48hr? 24hr? 6hr? I think people get far to stuck on the model tracks nd the current middle of the road line NHC draws at any give time. That cone of uncertainty is there for a reason. I recall after it first entered the gulf the cone went all the way to WLA. That cone is there for a reason thow many people tend to forget about it seems like.

If yo uwant to faithfully say every vortex and every advisory by the NHC is gospel , set in stone , and unuable to have errors. Thats fine your perog , but you really shouldn't jump on other people just because they entertain possibilies that the NHC does not.

[JTD]

not to quibble , but your repeating the offical reports , your not nessisarly repeating "reality".

thats what i mean about conspiracy.....if recon finds 140mph over and over...its obviously wrong.

if models forecast shear and the nhc uses that in their forecast reasoning...they are wrong.

a storm can only strengthen or go where its not forecast to go.......anything else gets people up in arms.

Dude, look at the satelite signature. It's not going to be a category 2 anytime soon. Also, look at the recon. rose from 897 to 915 but now dropping or at least staying study. The outer eyewall is contracting. The ERC will soon be complete.

Once the ERC is complete, we'll know more. Also, don't forget who wrote the 5 pm NHC discussion, Avila. Tells you a lot right there.

[milankovitch]

I wouldn't put to much stock in the models of Rita's intensity, for instance the 12Z GFDL says Rita's pressure should be 938mb now at 00Z when it is in fact 913mb. So you can't look at the GFDL run and say "ok it's so many knots at landfall." Even though the winds are down to 145mph the pressure is still 913mb and that is what really grabs my attention. Once the ERC completes sometime tonight we will have a better idea on where Rita is heading intensity-wise.

[audioslave8]

The latest pressure is 917mbs slowly weakening by the hours. This is a fact. It seems she will be a strong 3 or low 4 just like the NHC called for i might add at landfall. If the NHC would get the amount of funding they should get from the Government they would do alot better job on future path and storm intensity. That would help with with evacuations and other other things as well and make it all easier to some degree on everyone. The NHC can only do so much with what they got. I dont know how many times I have said this and the NHC im sure too.