Rita Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
monsoon
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:40 pm
Location: Fort Collins Colorado
Contact:

#1441 Postby monsoon » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:39 pm

Please explain how it can be determined that an ERC is about to end, based on the Vortex data. I am just trying to learn to interpret them. Thanks.
0 likes   

User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

#1442 Postby thunderchief » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:40 pm

there might be time for one more. Landfall is still 30+ hours off.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#1443 Postby drezee » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:42 pm

144kts in the NW quad

Maximum Flight Level Winds ff 144KT (165.6mph 266.7km/h)
Estimated Max Surface Winds 129.6KT (149.0mph 240.0km/h) *

484
SXXX50 KNHC 230038
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 46 KNHC
0027 2600N 08953W 02439 5701 202 040 188 182 045 01780 0000000000
0027. 2600N 08955W 02440 5715 186 022 188 182 028 01767 0000000000
0028 2600N 08957W 02439 5718 148 004 186 182 010 01764 0000000000
0028. 2600N 08959W 02438 5711 354 015 186 184 020 01769 0000000000
0029 2601N 09001W 02441 5706 003 022 190 188 024 01777 0000000000
0029. 2602N 09002W 02439 5699 001 029 194 188 030 01782 0000000000
0030 2603N 09003W 02439 5698 010 034 196 182 039 01784 0000000000
0030. 2604N 09004W 02436 5687 024 054 194 184 061 01792 0000000000
0031 2606N 09005W 02439 5666 028 071 184 184 075 01815 0000000000
0031. 2607N 09006W 02440 5639 031 088 162 162 094 01843 0000000000
0032 2608N 09007W 02438 5610 035 103 148 148 104 01870 0000000000
0032. 2609N 09008W 02450 5574 041 111 170 170 112 01918 0000000000
0033 2610N 09009W 02431 5544 044 110 138 138 112 01929 0000000000
0033. 2611N 09010W 02440 5524 047 110 144 144 111 01958 0000000000
0034 2612N 09011W 02437 5484 052 111 152 152 113 01996 0000000000
0034. 2613N 09013W 02441 5455 056 117 152 152 125 02029 0000000000
0035 2614N 09014W 02452 5426 056 130 130 130 135 02069 0000000000
0035. 2615N 09015W 02437 5398 051 140 122 122 144 02082 0000000100
0036 2616N 09016W 02424 5373 044 133 110 110 135 02094 0000000000
0036. 2617N 09017W 02443 5347 044 133 108 108 134 02139 0000000000
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#1444 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:44 pm

That means she has intensified?
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38187
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#1445 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:45 pm

130 kts estimated at the surface...
0 likes   
#neversummer

jhamps10

#1446 Postby jhamps10 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:46 pm

I'll say it has, since it's in the NW quad of the storm is usually one of the weaker ones.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147789
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1447 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:47 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 230044
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 18 KNHC
0029. 2517N 09044W 03018 5051 322 060 092 092 061 02954 0000000000
0030 2515N 09046W 03018 5047 326 058 098 098 059 02959 0000000000
0030. 2514N 09047W 03017 5045 332 060 092 092 062 02960 0000000000
0031 2513N 09048W 03022 5042 337 066 088 088 071 02968 0000000000
0031. 2511N 09050W 03010 5034 329 073 082 082 075 02963 0000000000
0032 2510N 09051W 03023 5031 327 069 086 086 070 02980 0000000000
0032. 2509N 09053W 03014 5026 326 073 094 094 074 02976 0000000000
0033 2508N 09054W 03018 5022 325 073 094 094 073 02983 0000000000
0033. 2506N 09055W 03018 5017 322 072 090 090 072 02988 0000000000
0034 2505N 09057W 03017 5013 319 070 090 090 071 02992 0000000000
0034. 2504N 09058W 03017 5009 316 066 096 096 068 02996 0000000000
0035 2503N 09059W 03016 5004 312 067 102 088 068 02999 0000000000
0035. 2501N 09101W 03018 5001 311 067 110 076 068 03005 0000000000
0036 2500N 09102W 03018 0002 309 066 112 080 066 03007 0000000000
0036. 2459N 09103W 03016 0004 310 066 110 080 066 03008 0000000000
0037 2458N 09105W 03019 0007 313 065 104 080 066 03014 0000000000
0037. 2457N 09106W 03015 0011 311 062 108 078 064 03014 0000000000
0038 2455N 09107W 03018 0013 309 059 110 084 060 03019 0000000000
0038. 2454N 09108W 03016 0015 306 054 114 080 055 03019 0000000000
0039 2453N 09110W 03020 0017 304 052 108 076 054 03024 0000000000

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147789
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1448 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:50 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 230048
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 47 KNHC
0037 2618N 09018W 02438 5324 044 126 108 108 129 02157 0000000000
0037. 2619N 09019W 02442 5303 045 120 110 110 123 02182 0000000000
0038 2620N 09020W 02437 5284 046 119 110 110 119 02196 0000000000
0038. 2621N 09021W 02441 5266 046 114 124 124 117 02218 0000000000
0039 2622N 09022W 02443 5250 047 111 140 138 112 02236 0000000000
0039. 2623N 09023W 02574 5227 047 109 134 130 109 02390 0000000000
0040 2624N 09024W 02809 5196 047 106 128 116 108 02657 0000000000
0040. 2626N 09025W 03076 5163 048 102 114 100 102 02957 0000000000
0041 2627N 09026W 03334 5128 050 099 096 090 100 03251 0000000000
0041. 2628N 09027W 03571 5097 051 096 082 076 097 03519 0000000000
0042 2629N 09027W 03661 5083 053 094 072 072 095 03624 0000000000
0042. 2631N 09027W 03655 5076 054 092 080 072 092 03625 0000000000
0043 2632N 09027W 03660 5069 054 091 080 066 092 03636 0000000000
0043. 2633N 09027W 03659 5066 055 089 078 064 090 03639 0000000000
0044 2635N 09027W 03658 5061 056 088 078 062 088 03643 0000000000
0044. 2636N 09027W 03660 5056 058 089 080 066 089 03649 0000000000
0045 2637N 09027W 03658 5053 060 087 080 068 087 03650 0000000000
0045. 2638N 09026W 03659 5051 062 087 080 066 088 03654 0000000000
0046 2640N 09026W 03657 5047 064 086 080 066 087 03656 0000000000
0046. 2641N 09026W 03657 5042 064 085 080 068 086 03661 0000000000



129kts
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38187
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#1449 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:50 pm

URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
089 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 916 mb
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

#1450 Postby thunderchief » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:51 pm

jhamps10 wrote:I'll say it has, since it's in the NW quad of the storm is usually one of the weaker ones.


Rita is moving just north of west... this places the strongest theoretical winds about north, so the NW quad isnt going to be 'weak.'
0 likes   

wjs3
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 633
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:57 am

#1451 Postby wjs3 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:58 pm

monsoon wrote:Please explain how it can be determined that an ERC is about to end, based on the Vortex data. I am just trying to learn to interpret them. Thanks.


It's the comment section that really tips you off. An ERC has an outer eye wall come contracting in as the (old) inner eyewall collapses. As you've been following the vortex messages, you've seen evidence of 2 eye walls (Letter M in the vortex message..post again if you need clarification) and evidence in the comments that inner one is getting more and more ragged/collapsing as the outer one is contracting.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147789
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1452 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:02 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 230100
AF309 2018A RITA HDOB 20 KNHC
0049. 2443N 09048W 03017 0013 288 056 102 084 056 03018 0000000000
0050 2443N 09046W 03018 0012 287 059 102 084 059 03018 0000000000
0050. 2444N 09043W 03016 0012 285 060 106 084 061 03016 0000000000
0051 2444N 09041W 03017 0009 282 063 106 082 064 03014 0000000000
0051. 2444N 09038W 03017 0007 281 065 106 082 066 03011 0000000000
0052 2444N 09035W 03018 0006 279 065 110 082 066 03011 0000000000
0052. 2444N 09033W 03017 0004 279 067 110 082 067 03009 0000000000
0053 2444N 09030W 03017 0004 281 066 110 082 066 03009 0000000000
0053. 2444N 09028W 03018 0002 280 067 106 086 067 03008 0000000000
0054 2444N 09025W 03016 0007 277 068 100 088 068 03064 0000000000
0054. 2444N 09023W 03018 0011 275 070 100 086 071 03065 0000000000
0055 2444N 09020W 03018 0011 276 074 104 086 075 03065 0000000000
0055. 2444N 09017W 03017 0010 274 075 104 086 075 03062 0000000000
0056 2444N 09015W 03017 0008 273 076 104 086 076 03060 0000000000
0056. 2444N 09012W 03017 0008 271 074 104 086 075 03060 0000000000
0057 2445N 09009W 03017 0007 268 074 084 084 075 03060 0000000000
0057. 2445N 09007W 03017 0006 265 072 090 090 073 03059 0000000000
0058 2445N 09004W 03018 0006 264 071 084 084 072 03059 0000000000
0058. 2445N 09002W 03019 0005 262 073 086 086 073 03060 0000000000
0059 2445N 08959W 03015 0005 260 072 088 088 072 03057 0000000000

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

monsoon
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:40 pm
Location: Fort Collins Colorado
Contact:

#1453 Postby monsoon » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:07 pm

Thanks wjs!
0 likes   

monsoon
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:40 pm
Location: Fort Collins Colorado
Contact:

#1454 Postby monsoon » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:07 pm

Thanks wjs!
0 likes   

monsoon
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:40 pm
Location: Fort Collins Colorado
Contact:

#1455 Postby monsoon » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:07 pm

Thanks wjs!
0 likes   

monsoon
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:40 pm
Location: Fort Collins Colorado
Contact:

#1456 Postby monsoon » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:09 pm

Sorry for the multiple posts! :oops: Need another beer.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147789
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1457 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:09 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 230108
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 49 KNHC
0057 2711N 09019W 04083 0067 080 070 030 030 073 04197 0000000000
0057. 2712N 09018W 04124 0075 080 072 038 038 073 04246 0000000000
0058 2714N 09018W 04151 0080 081 069 034 032 070 04277 0000000000
0058. 2715N 09018W 04180 0085 078 068 040 032 068 04312 0000000100
0059 2717N 09017W 04222 0069 074 069 046 024 070 04360 0000000000
0059. 2718N 09017W 04275 0069 079 066 040 018 068 04420 0000000000
0100 2720N 09016W 04315 0076 079 065 044 014 065 04467 0000000000
0100. 2722N 09016W 04362 0082 081 065 044 012 066 04520 0000000000
0101 2723N 09016W 04410 0089 086 069 034 008 069 04576 0000000000
0101. 2725N 09015W 04461 0095 084 065 026 004 067 04633 0000000000
0102 2727N 09015W 04506 0102 084 061 030 002 061 04685 0000000000
0102. 2728N 09014W 04545 0107 086 059 030 001 059 04729 0000000000
0103 2730N 09014W 04580 0112 087 058 030 003 058 04770 0000000000
0103. 2732N 09014W 04614 0117 088 060 024 005 060 04809 0000000000
0104 2734N 09013W 04648 0121 092 061 016 009 063 04846 0000000000
0104. 2735N 09013W 04671 0127 095 066 006 009 068 04875 0000000000
0105 2737N 09012W 04666 0129 090 071 004 013 073 04873 0000000000
0105. 2739N 09012W 04662 0131 087 074 002 019 075 04870 0000000000
0106 2740N 09012W 04648 0131 083 069 002 019 072 04856 0000000000
0106. 2742N 09011W 04584 0130 081 069 006 019 070 04791 0000000000

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 147789
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1458 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:11 pm

543
UZNT13 KNHC 230029
XXAA 73007 99260 70899 08169 99915 27000 19507 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85655 24000 21007 70346 16200 30003 88999 77999
31313 09608 80011
61616 AF309 2018A RITA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2602N08992W 0014 MBL WND 20508 AEV 20507 DLM WND 21
506 914710 WL150 20008 082 =
XXBB 73008 99260 70899 08169 00915 27000 11850 24000 22707 17800
33699 16000
21212 00915 19507 11850 21007 22699 30503
31313 09608 80011
61616 AF309 2018A RITA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2602N08992W 0014 MBL WND 20508 AEV 20507 DLM WND 21
506 914710 WL150 20008 082 =




Dropsonde
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

LTHLBLU
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:44 am
Location: Reno911!
Contact:

#1459 Postby LTHLBLU » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:SXXX50 KNHC 230108
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 49 KNHC
0057 2711N 09019W 04083 0067 080 070 030 030 073 04197 0000000000
0057. 2712N 09018W 04124 0075 080 072 038 038 073 04246 0000000000
0058 2714N 09018W 04151 0080 081 069 034 032 070 04277 0000000000
0058. 2715N 09018W 04180 0085 078 068 040 032 068 04312 0000000100
0059 2717N 09017W 04222 0069 074 069 046 024 070 04360 0000000000
0059. 2718N 09017W 04275 0069 079 066 040 018 068 04420 0000000000
0100 2720N 09016W 04315 0076 079 065 044 014 065 04467 0000000000
0100. 2722N 09016W 04362 0082 081 065 044 012 066 04520 0000000000
0101 2723N 09016W 04410 0089 086 069 034 008 069 04576 0000000000
0101. 2725N 09015W 04461 0095 084 065 026 004 067 04633 0000000000
0102 2727N 09015W 04506 0102 084 061 030 002 061 04685 0000000000
0102. 2728N 09014W 04545 0107 086 059 030 001 059 04729 0000000000
0103 2730N 09014W 04580 0112 087 058 030 003 058 04770 0000000000
0103. 2732N 09014W 04614 0117 088 060 024 005 060 04809 0000000000
0104 2734N 09013W 04648 0121 092 061 016 009 063 04846 0000000000
0104. 2735N 09013W 04671 0127 095 066 006 009 068 04875 0000000000
0105 2737N 09012W 04666 0129 090 071 004 013 073 04873 0000000000
0105. 2739N 09012W 04662 0131 087 074 002 019 075 04870 0000000000
0106 2740N 09012W 04648 0131 083 069 002 019 072 04856 0000000000
0106. 2742N 09011W 04584 0130 081 069 006 019 070 04791 0000000000


what are the important numbers to look for, and does anyone have a guide on how to decode this kinda stuff?
0 likes   

soonertwister
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1091
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 2:52 pm

#1460 Postby soonertwister » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:12 pm

thunderchief wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:I'll say it has, since it's in the NW quad of the storm is usually one of the weaker ones.


Rita is moving just north of west... this places the strongest theoretical winds about north, so the NW quad isnt going to be 'weak.'


I thought winds were reported as storm relative, meaning that regardless of direction or speed of motion, winds are measured the same in all storms?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: jhpigott, Lizzytiz1 and 185 guests