Chances of Storm Hitting as Far East as New Orleans?

samanthahunter · #1 Postby **samanthahunter** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:38 pm

As the track has been right of forecast all day, is it possible to go "wide right" like Ivan, like Katrina. Just curious over here in Mobile AL. We had models going to Mexico several days ago and that cone gets closer and closer by the day. Thanks.

#2 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:40 pm

No, because of the ridge she will keep the current WNW movement to around Houston.

Fodie77 · #3 Postby **Fodie77** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:41 pm

There are a lot of questions about the track, but I can assure you, this cane will NOT hit N.O. or Mobile...at least not head-on. You guys may pick up some heavy rain bands, and if it moves far enough east MAYBE some Tropical Storm force winds.

djtil · #4 Postby **djtil** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:43 pm

0

its nearly due south of new orleans now....and despite the wobble watchers adamant objections, still moving at a mean 300 degrees towards the ne texas coast.

#5 Postby **CronkPSU** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:50 pm

new orleans looked dead on track the entire time for katrina and then took that hard right...who knows, it is possible, not probable but not as far fetched as some on here would have you believe

#6 Postby **Starburst** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:52 pm

It could be my tired hurricane eyes but it also looks like some of the models have shifted back right on Galveston.

djtil · #7 Postby **djtil** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:53 pm

new orleans looked dead on track the entire time for katrina and then took that hard right...who knows, it is possible, not probable but not as far fetched as some on here would have you believe

the "hard right" was forecast and hit within 20 miles....this would be a 300mile unforecast "bobble".....the mother of all bobbles.

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:58 pm

Less than 1%

There's never a zero chance in weather. :lol:

wolfray · #9 Postby **wolfray** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:03 pm

Here in North Carolina, local TV WRAL Met has a weather model called the NC Weather Scope. It was developed by several people including Greg Fishal, the Met at WRAL. Last night he compared NCWS to the GFDL....GFDL moved the storm to around G-ston, NCWS moved it to the LA coast. He again compared Rita's movement today to the (2) models. Guess what? NCWS was dead on with todays movement, the GFDL continuing its move to the Texas coast, to far to the left. I don't know if the NCWS will continue with it's great job. But it has done very well with Rita since the Fla coast.............

#10 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:04 pm

The eye will not pass over NOLA, but they get at least TS winds and rain now.

beachbum_al · #11 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:51 pm

No! Seems more like rain and tropical storm winds. Hey we are even having school tomorrow. :lol:

Ixolib · #12 Postby **Ixolib** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:58 pm

wolfray wrote:Here in North Carolina, local TV WRAL Met has a weather model called the NC Weather Scope. It was developed by several people including Greg Fishal, the Met at WRAL. Last night he compared NCWS to the GFDL....GFDL moved the storm to around G-ston, NCWS moved it to the LA coast. He again compared Rita's movement today to the (2) models. Guess what? NCWS was dead on with todays movement, the GFDL continuing its move to the Texas coast, to far to the left. I don't know if the NCWS will continue with it's great job. But it has done very well with Rita since the Fla coast.............

So... I wonder what the NCWS is indicating this evening - in real time?

Mississippi Storm Magnet · #13 Postby **Mississippi Storm Magnet** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:21 pm

Brent wrote:Less than 1%

There's never a zero chance in weather.

Quantum physics agrees, but not only weather. Everything.

Sorry, my nerd popped out.... :wink:

Chances of Storm Hitting as Far East as New Orleans?

Chances of Storm Hitting as Far East as New Orleans?

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