Rita thinking...

[stormspotter]

I believe she has stalled!

Really do you think so?

[beachbum_al]

Stall? Well I hope she doesn't decide to sit over the warm eddy for too long and think.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Stall? Well I hope she doesn't decide to sit over the warm eddy for too long and think.

Heck that will just help the shear in the dry air off the land get into it...If it keeps moving the chances are it could restrengthing some. But if it stalls it will suck all that dry air into its core. Also look to the southeastern quad. It is beocming flat that is what happen to Katrina. Watch durning the next few hours as the whole southeastern part of rita falls apart. If thats what I think it is.

[PTPatrick]

OK...no offense to anyone, BUT the reality is that most ground you have to be pretty lucky to get accurate readings from the immediate 10-15 miles east of the eye wall of ANY hurricane. The reason there is always so much debate afterwards over landfall strength is because the strongest winds really are RIGHT at the coast...even in a 150MPH storm if the recording station is 10 miles inland and gets in the eyewall you wont see 150mph sustained. There are very few good official recording stations on beaches, save for a few naval stations here and there. So why split hairs. I think there was probably cat 4 winds in Katrina at landfall, but for whatever reason(IE...recording station went under water?) they werent picked up.
Seriously MOST of Plaquemine parish was underwater, and chances are any readings from there are inaccurate...same thing goes for Hancock co. MS

[btangy]

Stall? Well I hope she doesn't decide to sit over the warm eddy for too long and think.

Heck that will just help the shear in the dry air off the land get into it...If it keeps moving the chances are it could restrengthing some. But if it stalls it will suck all that dry air into its core. Also look to the southeastern quad. It is beocming flat that is what happen to Katrina. Watch durning the next few hours as the whole southeastern part of rita falls apart. If thats what I think it is.

I'm also thinking Rita may pull a Katrina and and lose much of the W side of the core right before landfall from ingestion a lot of dry air. Take a look at the Lake Charles sounding:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/lch.gif

It is very dry above 650mb and pretty stable. Dewpoints in C Texas are around 60. As this air gets pulled toward the storm when Rita nears land, it won't have the opportunity to moisten up over a long overwater trajectory. This airmass is much drier than the airmass to the NW of Katrina when it approached LA, so I would not be surprised if the storm weakens 25mph right before landfall.

[krysof]

Stall? Well I hope she doesn't decide to sit over the warm eddy for too long and think.

Heck that will just help the shear in the dry air off the land get into it...If it keeps moving the chances are it could restrengthing some. But if it stalls it will suck all that dry air into its core. Also look to the southeastern quad. It is beocming flat that is what happen to Katrina. Watch durning the next few hours as the whole southeastern part of rita falls apart. If thats what I think it is.

so you expect to weaken to basically a weak hurricane at landfall=cat 1 or 2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I do expect it to weaken to 110 mph at least. You can see how the southeastern Quad is starting to be flaten out. The same thing happen to Katrina. So expect that side of the storm to be kicked in. Fellowd by once it is moving ashore the dry air talked about by btangy, will make sure it doe's not strengthing or even weaken.

[wxmann_91]

Yes I do expect it to weaken to 110 mph at least. You can see how the southeastern Quad is starting to be flaten out. The same thing happen to Katrina. So expect that side of the storm to be kicked in. Fellowd by once it is moving ashore the dry air talked about by btangy, will make sure it doe's not strengthing or even weaken.

It certainly will not strengthen, and it will weaken, but probably not to below major hurricane strength at landfall.

And FYI, Katrina's weakening started with the erosion of the northwestern quadrant, not the southeastern one.

[krysof]

well because it has more time to weaken than Katrina, I expect it to be to near 100 mph at landfall maybe lower, I agree with you now about it weakening- I think people will be pleasantly surprised. I mean come on they have had enough for one season, and for the next several years

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

well because it has more time to weaken than Katrina, I expect it to be to near 100 mph at landfall maybe lower, I agree with you now about it weakening- I think people will be pleasantly surprised. I mean come on they have had enough for one season, and for the next several years

I agree...I just pray to god there is not a big build up of towns or citys on the Gulf durning the next 10 years. Like there has been for the last 50. Alot of people are going to die next time...In also we have to rethink where we put are oil rings/refin stations. Like moving them out of the tropics. Theres alot to think about.

[huricanwatcher]

well because it has more time to weaken than Katrina, I expect it to be to near 100 mph at landfall maybe lower, I agree with you now about it weakening- I think people will be pleasantly surprised. I mean come on they have had enough for one season, and for the next several years

I agree...I just pray to god there is not a big build up of towns or citys on the Gulf durning the next 10 years. Like there has been for the last 50. Alot of people are going to die next time...In also we have to rethink where we put are oil rings/refin stations. Like moving them out of the tropics. Theres alot to think about.

NEXT TIME????????

I think there years death toll is enough.. or way too much in my opinion

[Scorpion]

110 mph?? I would love to have what you are smoking. You are implying that Rita would weaken by potentially 50-60 mph. That would also require probably a 40 mb pressure rise, or more. Im sorry, I just don't see it. Lili weakened by 40 knots, and that was extreme weakening. You are saying this could weaken by 45-50 kts? That would be quite a record.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will just get worst as more people move to the Gulf coast...In the damage will keep going up...That is a fact.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

110 mph?? I would love to have what you are smoking. You are implying that Rita would weaken by potentially 50-60 mph. That would also require probably a 40 mb pressure rise, or more. Im sorry, I just don't see it. Lili weakened by 40 knots, and that was extreme weakening. You are saying this could weaken by 45-50 kts? That would be quite a record.

Its down to 140 mph now. In take a look at the southeastern quad. See the flating of that side. That is shear...Also look how dry air over texas. That is going ot destory the core of this storm. 110 mph might be high!

[Fodie77]

IMO, Rita will weaken some, but to 110 mph? NO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

IMO, Rita will weaken some, but to 110 mph? NO.

We will see what happens.

[Fodie77]

IMO, Rita will weaken some, but to 110 mph? NO.

We will see what happens.

Indeed we will. And I promise that if what you say occurs, I will be the first one in this thread eating my words.

[AL Chili Pepper]

My thinking is 120 MPH. I also think the due west movement won't last and that she'll be making landfall around the NHC prediction or a little further east around Lake Charles.

[f5]

Waco,TX

Temp;84
Heat Index:83
Wind: From NE at 6 mph
Humidity: 38%
Pressure: 29.81 in.
Dew Point: 56°F
Visibility: 10.0 miles

will rita pull in that 56 degree dewpoint?

[recmod]

Matt..I just don't see what you have been carrying on for several hours now....the SE quadrant looks just fine to me. In fact, the most intense convection is now firing in the SE quadrant. I see no flattening of that portion of the storm as you keep insisting.

--Lou