Rita Picking Up Dry Air in NW Quad

[NFLnut]

Anyone else notice this? Also, what appeared to be almost perfect symmetry earlier looks a little ragged in the latest frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

[Clint_TX]

wrong...please try again later....It's going to happen just not yet

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm w!ishcasting she will be 110 mph at landfal. Becaues of that dry air getting sucked in destorying the core.

[Eyes2theSkies]

no dry air yet

[soonertwister]

I'd say the entrainment is pretty minor. Plus, Rita just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and is very likely to strengthen as the eye contracts. All day the winds have not reflected the measured pressure due to this phase. Now that it's over, I see no reason why Rita will not strengthen, and she could reach a lower pressure than what was the previous low.

I don't guarantee that the winds get back to category 5, but I fully expect that they will. The highest the pressure has been all day is the current 919 mb, and that is still low enough for 160 mph winds.

Watch her go through a strengthening phase overnight.

[Starburst]

Is it just me or has she gotten much bigger in the past hour or so?

[SunnyThoughts]

THe pressures are going to rise...until the outer eyewall completely takes over and this ragged piece of the inner eyewall is cleared out of the eye. The windfield also spreads out. As the outereyewall starts to contract...throughout the early morning hours and during the day tomorrow, the pressure will drop and the winds will come up. How far will the pressure drop and how much will the winds come up? Well, nobody knows that...just a wait and see kinda thing. If it doesn't strengthen at all between now and landfall, the outcome will still be horrible.

[soonertwister]

THe pressures are going to rise...until the outer eyewall completely takes over and this ragged piece of the inner eyewall is cleared out of the eye. The windfield also spreads out. As the outereyewall starts to contract...throughout the early morning hours and during the day tomorrow, the pressure will drop and the winds will come up. How far will the pressure drop and how much will the winds come up? Well, nobody knows that...just a wait and see kinda thing. If it doesn't strengthen at all between now and landfall, the outcome will still be horrible.

Unfortunately, I think that the chances of Rita being significantly weaker at landfall are pretty low. Since this eyewall replacement cycle is just now ending, she's likely to go through a strengthening phase right up to landfall.

[Dmetal81]

THe pressures are going to rise...until the outer eyewall completely takes over and this ragged piece of the inner eyewall is cleared out of the eye. The windfield also spreads out. As the outereyewall starts to contract...throughout the early morning hours and during the day tomorrow, the pressure will drop and the winds will come up. How far will the pressure drop and how much will the winds come up? Well, nobody knows that...just a wait and see kinda thing. If it doesn't strengthen at all between now and landfall, the outcome will still be horrible.

Unfortunately, I think that the chances of Rita being significantly weaker at landfall are pretty low. Since this eyewall replacement cycle is just now ending, she's likely to go through a strengthening phase right up to landfall.

Agreed, but I'd like a professional take on EWRC. I dont believe she'll have time to start another before landfall though, like Katrina did.

[NFLnut]

I'm w!ishcasting she will be 110 mph at landfal. Becaues of that dry air getting sucked in destorying the core.

It's a valid observation, whether you agree with it or not. All I was saying is that the large mass of dry air to its west COULD start to influence Rita. Although the amount I am observing is a small amount, and is not even close to the core, it nonetheless COULD be the start of dry air intrusion.

[Nexus]

She getting much bigger, Starburst

In fact, if you play the loop backwards or rock it, it's even more obvious.

On a side note, I don't post very much (been lurking for a few seasons though), but just wanted to say - Wow, what a past few seasons it's been when folks are cheering a pressure rise to 919!